| Date | What happens |
|---|
| Nov. 10, 13 and 18 | Scheduled updates adding absentee and late early ballots |
| Nov. 13 | Deadline for domestic mail ballots postmarked by Nov. 3 to arrive |
| Nov. 18 | Deadline for overseas ballots; ranked-choice tabulation if no one has 50% |
| Nov. 25 | Target date for the division to certify results |
","layout":"text"},{"role":"body","format":"markdown","text":"Until November 18, every public total shows first choices only. If no candidate passes 50 percent, the last-place candidate is eliminated and those ballots move to their next ranked choice, round by round. With four names on the ballot, that means Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. and Gerald Heikes would be dropped and their voters' second choices would decide the race. In the Data for Progress poll of October 8 to 16, that process narrowed a 47-44 Peltola lead to 51-49, as we reported in our [final-poll roundup](https://567politics.com/news/alaska-senate-peltola-sullivan-final-siena-poll-governor-november-2026). A ballot that ranked only an eliminated candidate is exhausted and counts for no one.\n\nThe state will release its ballot data file during the count, which lets the Associated Press run its own tabulation and possibly call the race before November 18, per [KTOO](https://www.ktoo.org/2026/11/03/sullivan-and-peltola-locked-in-tight-u-s-senate-race-as-more-results-come-in-2/). As of Wednesday morning, no major outlet had called it.\n\n## What the candidates said\n\nBoth candidates spoke to supporters in Anchorage late Tuesday. Sullivan, at the Hotel Captain Cook, acknowledged the national picture and argued Alaska would break from it. \"Lower 48 blue wave. But we're different,\" he said, per the Associated Press report carried by [The Daily Reflector](http://www.reflector.com/news/national/sullivan-peltola-project-confidence-while-awaiting-results-in-alaska-us-senate-race/article_0f1f7a8c-a031-50b1-b133-8c10a2452488.html). \"I'm confident when all the votes are counted, I will have the honor of representing you,\" he said, per [KTOO](https://www.ktoo.org/2026/11/03/sullivan-and-peltola-locked-in-tight-u-s-senate-race-as-more-results-come-in-2/). He again called the second Sullivan's candidacy \"the biggest election cheating scandal in the history of the state of Alaska,\" per the AP.\n\nPeltola, at the Sheraton Anchorage, told her crowd, \"We are getting our government back,\" per the AP, and \"We are winning our state back,\" per KTOO. She also warned that \"the results are not going to be fast\" and that \"it's going to take a long time to make sure we're counting every vote from every far-flung hinterland community.\" On the recruitment allegations, she repeated that she was \"kept out of it\" and \"would never allow this,\" per [KTOO](https://www.ktoo.org/2026/11/03/sullivan-and-peltola-locked-in-tight-u-s-senate-race-as-more-results-come-in-2/).\n\nPresident Trump, who held a Wasilla rally for Sullivan last month, told The New York Times on Tuesday that he was \"absolutely willing to accept\" the midterm results, per the [Juneau Independent](https://www.juneauindependent.com/post/peltola-leads-by-11-hill-ahead-of-begich-by-3-in-early-alaska-returns-as-democrats-sweep-congres). His broader reaction to the night is covered in our story on his [claim that Republicans would have won \"in a landslide\"](https://567politics.com/news/trump-reaction-midterms-not-on-ballot-landslide-claim-accepts-results-veto-november-2026) with him on the ballot.\n\n## The legal fight that has not gone away\n\nThe count is happening under a dismissed lawsuit, a pending appeal and a criminal inquiry. The Justice Department sued Alaska on October 22, asking a court to bar certification if Sullivan lost by less than the votes cast for Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., a retired Petersburg teacher with no relation to the senator. U.S. District Judge Sharon Gleason [dismissed the case](https://567politics.com/news/alaska-senate-doj-appeal-ninth-circuit-gleason-dismissal-november-2026) on November 1, finding the government lacked standing and that ballots \"have been commingled and cannot now be segregated.\" The department filed its notice of appeal within an hour. On Election Day, The New York Times reported that prosecutors had sent [target letters to about 20 Democrats](https://567politics.com/news/alaska-senate-doj-target-letters-democrats-elias-two-sullivans-election-day-november-2026), including election lawyer Marc Elias. A target letter is not a charge.\n\nWhether the appeal matters depends on the arithmetic. Sullivan Jr. drew 3,401 first-choice votes in the 10:48 p.m. report. If the final margin between the senator and Peltola is wider than Sullivan Jr.'s total in either direction, the department's own theory of harm falls away. If Peltola wins by less than that total, the Ninth Circuit could be asked to act before the November 25 certification target. The department has not said publicly whether it will seek emergency relief. The Alaska Department of Law, which fought the suit, has said the division, not the governor, certifies under state law.\n\nNone of the allegations about how Sullivan Jr. came to run has been tested in court. He says he ran on his own. Peltola says she knew nothing. The senator's campaign says it does not believe her. We laid out what is proven, alleged and unknown in [our Election Day report](https://567politics.com/news/alaska-senate-doj-target-letters-democrats-elias-two-sullivans-election-day-november-2026), and nothing on Tuesday night changed that record.\n\n## Alaskans narrowly keep ranked-choice voting, for now\n\nThe same ballots carried Measure 2, which would have repealed ranked-choice voting and the open top-four primary that Alaska adopted in 2020 and restored party primaries and plurality general elections. In the 10:48 p.m. report, No led Yes 100,923 to 95,339, or 51.42 percent to 48.58 percent, per [Alaska Watchman](https://alaskawatchman.com/2026/11/03/update-4-ak-vote-shows-sullivan-begich-leading-jkt-ahead-rcv-repeal-trails/). A near-identical repeal failed in 2024 by 0.24 percentage points, per [Wikipedia's summary of the measure](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Alaska_Measure_2). This year's measure was backed by President Trump, Gov. Mike Dunleavy and the Alaska Republican Party and opposed by the League of Women Voters of Alaska and a cross-party group of former legislators. Pre-election polls split: Alaska Survey Research had No ahead 53-47 in early October, while Data for Progress had a 48-48 tie, per the same summary.\n\nThe result is not final. The same uncounted ballots that will decide the Senate race will decide the measure. Measure 3, which would write citizen-only voting into state law, was passing 69.93 percent to 30.07 percent in the same report.\n\n## The rest of the Alaska ballot\n\nDemocrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins led the open governor's race with 48.85 percent against 29.39 percent for Republican Bernadette Wilson, 14.10 percent for Dave Bronson and 7.37 percent for Treg Taylor, per [Alaska Watchman](https://alaskawatchman.com/2026/11/03/update-4-ak-vote-shows-sullivan-begich-leading-jkt-ahead-rcv-repeal-trails/). Like the Senate race, it would go to ranked-choice rounds if he stays under 50 percent, and the three Republicans' second choices would matter. In the [at-large House race](https://567politics.com/races/ak-al-house-2026), Republican Rep. Nick Begich led independent Bill Hill 49.93 percent to 40.05 percent, with Democrat Eric Hafner at 7.19 percent. Begich is close to the majority that would end the race in the first round.\n\n## What people are saying online\n\nThis desk sets out each run to sample what people on X and Reddit are saying, and to verify every post we quote against its live permalink. On the morning of November 4, our tools could not open X or Reddit, and the tool we use to check a post against its original link failed on each X link we tried. Search previews pointed to posts from Alaska reporters relaying the count, from Republican accounts calling the second Sullivan a fraud, and from Democratic accounts calling the Justice Department suit an attempt to pre-empt the result. A preview is not a verified quotation. We have therefore quoted no social posts in this story, and we make no claim about what Alaskans online think. The only representative evidence is the pre-election polling in our [final-poll roundup](https://567politics.com/news/alaska-senate-peltola-sullivan-final-siena-poll-governor-november-2026), where every lead was inside the margin of error.\n\n## Money and stakes\n\nCampaign spending does not change a count, but it shows the stakes each side saw. Through the third-quarter FEC reports, Peltola had raised $36.9 million and spent $32.8 million; [Sen. Sullivan](https://567politics.com/politicians/dan-sullivan) had raised $14.1 million and spent $12 million, per [Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/U.S._Senate,_Alaska_election,_2026). Those are campaign receipts only. They exclude independent expenditures, which ran into the millions on both sides, as our Election Day report detailed from an FEC snapshot retrieved November 3. Funding shows interest, not control, and none of it bears on who is ahead.\n\n## What remains unknown\n\nThe number of uncounted ballots is unknown until the division posts its early and absentee totals. Whether either candidate reaches 50 percent of first choices is unknown; the Election Night figures say no, but the mail ballots could move the shares. Where Sullivan Jr.'s and Heikes's voters ranked second is unknown until November 18, unless the AP's tabulation of the released ballot file gets there first. Whether the Justice Department will press its appeal if the margin is close, and whether Gov. Dunleavy would sign credentials for a Peltola win, are open. And whether Measure 2's narrow No lead holds will not be clear for at least a week.\n\n## Sources and method\n\nVote figures are unofficial Division of Elections totals as published on Election Night by Alaska Watchman, the Juneau Independent, Newsweek and Alaska Public Media; we could not open the division's own results page, the Anchorage Daily News, the Alaska Beacon or NBC News during reporting, so we relied on outlets that reproduced the division's figures and noted the timestamps on each. Quotes are as printed by the Associated Press, KTOO and the Juneau Independent. Early-vote figures come from the division as reported by Alaska Public Media on October 28. Campaign-finance figures are third-quarter FEC totals as summarized by Ballotpedia. No social posts are quoted because X and Reddit could not be reached or verified. See our [methodology](https://567politics.com/methodology) for how we handle counts, allegations and online reactions.","textStyle":"body","layout":"text"}]}