{"version":"1.9","identifier":"c453b879-b114-4881-a36d-50bd09cadcca","language":"en-US","title":"Democrats projected to win the Senate after flipping six seats, including Kansas and Iowa","layout":{"columns":7,"width":1024,"margin":32,"gutter":20},"componentLayouts":{"text":{"columnStart":0,"columnSpan":7,"maximumContentWidth":720,"margin":{"top":12,"bottom":12}},"photo":{"columnStart":0,"columnSpan":7,"margin":{"top":20,"bottom":20}}},"componentTextStyles":{"default":{"fontName":"HelveticaNeue","fontSize":18,"lineHeight":29,"textColor":"#171717"},"headline":{"fontName":"HelveticaNeue-Bold","fontSize":36,"lineHeight":42,"conditional":[{"conditions":{"maxViewportWidth":480},"fontSize":28,"lineHeight":34}]},"intro":{"fontName":"HelveticaNeue","fontSize":20,"lineHeight":28,"textColor":"#555555"},"caption":{"fontName":"HelveticaNeue","fontSize":13,"lineHeight":19,"textColor":"#666666"},"byline":{"fontName":"HelveticaNeue","fontSize":13,"lineHeight":20,"textColor":"#666666"},"body":{"fontName":"HelveticaNeue","fontSize":18,"lineHeight":29,"paragraphSpacingAfter":14,"linkStyle":{"textColor":"#00704a"}}},"metadata":{"canonicalURL":"https://567politics.com/news/democrats-win-senate-majority-six-flips-kansas-iowa-trump-accepts-results-november-2026","datePublished":"2026-11-04T05:36:38.149458Z","dateModified":"2026-11-04T05:42:02.33364Z","authors":["Patrick Karsh"],"excerpt":"Decision Desk HQ called the chamber at 11:18 p.m. ET after Iowa and Ohio fell; ABC followed after midnight. Kansas elected its first Democratic senator since 1932. Trump told the Times he is \"absolutely willing to accept those results.\"","thumbnailURL":"https://pub-fac99da959e344fe99d810d309cef7df.r2.dev/photos/article/c453b879-b114-4881-a36d-50bd09cadcca/10d7c6d6f5df86d705ad43e3b8b01e7d.jpg","keywords":["elections"],"generatorName":"Frog News","generatorVersion":"1.0"},"components":[{"role":"title","text":"Democrats projected to win the Senate after flipping six seats, including Kansas and Iowa","textStyle":"headline","layout":"text"},{"role":"intro","text":"Decision Desk HQ called the chamber at 11:18 p.m. ET after Iowa and Ohio fell; ABC followed after midnight. Kansas elected its first Democratic senator since 1932. Trump told the Times he is \"absolutely willing to accept those results.\"","textStyle":"intro","layout":"text"},{"role":"byline","text":"By Patrick Karsh · Published November 4, 2026","textStyle":"byline","layout":"text"},{"role":"photo","URL":"https://pub-fac99da959e344fe99d810d309cef7df.r2.dev/photos/article/c453b879-b114-4881-a36d-50bd09cadcca/10d7c6d6f5df86d705ad43e3b8b01e7d.jpg","caption":"The east front of the U.S. Capitol, home of the Senate's north wing, photographed from First Street SE. Democrats are projected to hold the Senate majority from January 2027. Photo: Dale Cruse, CC BY 2.0. · Dale Cruse via Flickr, CC BY 2.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/)","accessibilityCaption":"The east front of the U.S. Capitol, home of the Senate's north wing, photographed from First Street SE. Democrats are projected to hold the Senate majority from January 2027. Photo: Dale Cruse, CC BY 2.0.","layout":"photo"},{"role":"caption","text":"The east front of the U.S. Capitol, home of the Senate's north wing, photographed from First Street SE. Democrats are projected to hold the Senate majority from January 2027. Photo: Dale Cruse, CC BY 2.0. · Dale Cruse via Flickr, CC BY 2.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/)","textStyle":"caption","layout":"text"},{"role":"body","format":"markdown","text":"Democrats will hold a majority in the U.S. Senate when the new Congress meets in January 2027, Decision Desk HQ projected at 11:18 p.m. Eastern on Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026. \"Decision Desk HQ projects that the Democrats win the Senate,\" the firm [posted on Bluesky](https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:catipgdd42lzwcqfsfcc6ype/post/3mzhiu233zc23), stamping the call \"#DecisionMade: 11:18 PM EST.\" The projection came two minutes after the same desk [called Iowa's open seat for Democrat Josh Turek](https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:catipgdd42lzwcqfsfcc6ype/post/3mzhiof4hac23) over Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson, and three minutes after it [projected Sherrod Brown the winner](https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:catipgdd42lzwcqfsfcc6ype/post/3mzhimuurrk23) of Ohio's special election.","textStyle":"body","layout":"text"},{"role":"body","format":"markdown","text":"ABC News projected Democratic control of the Senate shortly after midnight Eastern, according to the network's [live blog as republished by its Los Angeles station](https://abc7.com/live-updates/midterm-elections-2026-live-updates-election-results-key-races-us/20001292/entry/20013996/), which stamped the entry 5:03 a.m. GMT, or 12:03 a.m. Eastern. NBC News projected Democrats would reach 51 seats on the strength of six flipped Republican seats, [South Korea's SBS reported](https://news.sbs.co.kr/english/article.do?news_id=N1008830306), citing NBC; we could not open NBC's own results pages on Tuesday night. The Associated Press had not called chamber control in any report we were able to read before 1 a.m. Eastern.\n\nRepublicans entered the night holding 53 seats to 47 for Democrats and the two independents who caucus with them, [per CBS News](https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/senate-election-results-2026/). Democrats needed a net gain of four. By the time of the Decision Desk HQ call, they had flipped six Republican-held seats and lost none that had been called.\n\n## Six flips, two of them in states that last elected a Democrat decades ago\n\nThe night began with North Carolina, where former Gov. Roy Cooper defeated Michael Whatley for the seat Thom Tillis vacated; 567politics reported [that call](https://567politics.com/news/north-carolina-senate-cooper-flips-seat-whatley-concedes-election-night-november-2026) as it landed at 8:24 p.m. Eastern in Sinclair's account. South Carolina followed, where Democrat Annie Andrews defeated Sen. Darline Graham, and Texas, where Decision Desk HQ projected at 10:14 p.m. that James Talarico had beaten Ken Paxton, the first Democratic Senate win in the state since 1988. Both are covered in our report on [the South Carolina and Texas results](https://567politics.com/news/south-carolina-senate-andrews-defeats-graham-texas-talarico-november-2026).\n\nThe three later flips made the majority. In Ohio, Brown defeated Sen. Jon Husted in the special election for the remainder of JD Vance's term, [as we reported](https://567politics.com/news/ohio-brown-flips-senate-seat-husted-acton-wins-governor-ramaswamy-november-2026). In Iowa, Turek led Hinson by just over 51% to 45% with 78% of the vote counted at 11:20 p.m., [The Hill reported](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/6178947-democrat-josh-turek-flips-senate-seat-in-iowa-2026-midterms/amp/), for a seat Joni Ernst is leaving; it is the first Democratic Senate win in Iowa since Tom Harkin's in 2008. In Kansas, NBC News projected that Adam Hamilton, the founding pastor of the United Methodist Church of the Resurrection in the Kansas City area, had defeated Sen. Roger Marshall. With 89.4% counted at 11:23 p.m., Hamilton had 52.1% to Marshall's 44.9%, [SBS reported](https://news.sbs.co.kr/english/article.do?news_id=N1008830306). The AP also reported the Kansas result, [according to WGME](https://wgme.com/news/nation-world/adam-hamilton-becomes-first-democratic-senator-from-kansas-in-nearly-100-years-senate-congress-pastor-church-of-the-resurrection-faith-politics-midterm-elections-midterms-vote-voters-voting-polls-ballots). Kansas last sent a Democrat to the Senate in 1932.","textStyle":"body","layout":"text"},{"role":"htmltable","html":"<table><tr><th>State</th><th>Democrat (winner)</th><th>Republican (loser)</th><th>Count at the call</th></tr><tr><td>North Carolina (open)</td><td>Roy Cooper</td><td>Michael Whatley</td><td>not reported</td></tr><tr><td>South Carolina</td><td>Annie Andrews</td><td>Darline Graham (inc.)</td><td>not reported</td></tr><tr><td>Texas (open)</td><td>James Talarico</td><td>Ken Paxton</td><td>57.4% to 41.1%, about 60% in</td></tr><tr><td>Ohio (special)</td><td>Sherrod Brown</td><td>Jon Husted (inc.)</td><td>48.6% to 46.5%</td></tr><tr><td>Iowa (open)</td><td>Josh Turek</td><td>Ashley Hinson</td><td>51% to 45%, 78% in</td></tr><tr><td>Kansas</td><td>Adam Hamilton</td><td>Roger Marshall (inc.)</td><td>52.1% to 44.9%, 89.4% in</td></tr></table>","layout":"text"},{"role":"body","format":"markdown","text":"Sources: the 567politics reports linked above for North Carolina, South Carolina, Texas and Ohio; [The Hill](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/6178947-democrat-josh-turek-flips-senate-seat-in-iowa-2026-midterms/amp/) for Iowa; [SBS, citing NBC News](https://news.sbs.co.kr/english/article.do?news_id=N1008830306) for Kansas. Every figure is a partial, unofficial count that will change as counting finishes. Official results come from each state's chief election officer after the canvass.\n\nDemocrats also held the three seats of their own that CBS had rated competitive. Jon Ossoff won reelection in Georgia, [as we reported](https://567politics.com/news/georgia-senate-ossoff-projected-winner-collins-election-night-november-2026), and Chris Pappas held New Hampshire for the party, [per our report](https://567politics.com/news/new-hampshire-senate-pappas-defeats-sununu-first-openly-gay-man-elected-election-night-november-2026). Michigan, the third, had not been called in the sources we could open; the Detroit News reported that Abdul El-Sayed led Mike Rogers in early returns.\n\n## What the polls said, and what the count says\n\nThe Kansas result was the night's largest surprise by historical standards but not by polling standards. Five of the six public polls taken in the last three weeks of the race had Hamilton ahead, [according to the compilation on Wikipedia's race page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_Kansas), which cites each pollster's release. A YouGov survey of 2,092 likely voters fielded Oct. 26 to 29 had Hamilton 50% to Marshall 49%; Emerson College's poll of 800 likely voters on Oct. 26 to 28 had it 50% to 47%; and a Washington Post survey of 801 likely voters on Oct. 22 to 26 had Hamilton ahead 52% to 43%. Only InsiderAdvantage, polling 1,200 likely voters on Oct. 13 and 14, had Marshall ahead, by one point. 567politics reviewed the [final New York Times/Siena poll of Kansas](https://567politics.com/news/kansas-senate-hamilton-marshall-final-siena-poll-holscher-masterson-november-2026) on Sunday.\n\n**Final Kansas Senate polls of likely voters compared with the NBC count at 89.4% reported, Nov. 3, 2026**\n\nPercent; the count was partial when the race was called and will change","textStyle":"body","layout":"text"},{"role":"htmltable","html":"<table><tr><th>Measure</th><th>Hamilton (D)</th><th>Marshall (R)</th></tr><tr><td>YouGov, Oct. 26-29</td><td>50%</td><td>49%</td></tr><tr><td>Emerson, Oct. 26-28</td><td>50%</td><td>47%</td></tr><tr><td>Washington Post, Oct. 22-26</td><td>52%</td><td>43%</td></tr><tr><td>InsiderAdvantage, Oct. 13-14</td><td>47%</td><td>48%</td></tr><tr><td>Count at 89.4% reported</td><td>52.1%</td><td>44.9%</td></tr></table>","layout":"text"},{"role":"body","format":"markdown","text":"Source: [Wikipedia compilation of pollster releases](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_Kansas), [SBS, citing NBC News](https://news.sbs.co.kr/english/article.do?news_id=N1008830306)\n\nIowa was a different story. The public polling there was thin and old. The most recent surveys on the same compilation site for the Iowa race dated from early September, when YouGov had Turek ahead 47% to 43% among 2,041 likely voters and Emerson had Hinson ahead 50% to 45% among 750 likely voters, [per Wikipedia's Iowa page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_Iowa). Decision Desk HQ's own pre-election forecast gave Hinson a 53% chance of winning, [according to its race page as of Nov. 2](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-11-03/iowa-us-senate-general-election). Our [final-poll report on Iowa](https://567politics.com/news/iowa-senate-turek-hinson-final-siena-poll-sand-lahn-november-2026) covered the Siena survey released on the last weekend. A forecast probability is a model's estimate, not a prediction of a margin, and a 53% favorite losing is not evidence that the model was wrong.\n\nMoney did not decide either race. In Kansas, Hamilton's campaign reported raising $19.2 million through Oct. 14 to Marshall's $7.5 million, per Federal Election Commission summaries cited on the race page. In Iowa, Hinson had raised $10.2 million through June 30 to Turek's $6.3 million on the same basis; later reports were not in the compilation we read. The two figures cover different dates and are candidate committees only, excluding party and outside spending. Fundraising shows who had resources; it does not show why voters chose as they did.\n\n## What voters told the exit pollsters\n\nThe networks' Voter Poll, conducted by SSRS for ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN and the AP, surveyed about 100,000 voters online, by phone and in person between Oct. 19 and Nov. 3, [Fox News said in describing the survey](https://www.foxnews.com/live-news/election-day-results-11-3-2026). Preliminary findings reported by ABC's affiliates before the Senate calls said Iowa voters were \"down on Trump\" and blamed his tariffs and policies for the state of the economy, while Kansas voters were split on whether the economy or the state of democracy mattered most and also blamed Trump for the economy, [according to the ABC7 live blog](https://abc7.com/live-updates/midterm-elections-2026-live-updates-election-results-key-races-us/20001292/entry/20013325/). In Ohio, about a third of Senate voters said they were angry about the country's direction and roughly 7 in 10 rated the national economy negatively, [ABC News reported](https://abcnews.com/Politics/live-updates/midterm-elections-live-updates/?id=137782085). 567politics has a fuller account of [the early national exit polls](https://567politics.com/news/exit-polls-2026-midterms-trump-approval-economy-democracy-party-favorability-november-2026).\n\nThese are preliminary figures that are reweighted as the count comes in. We could not open the SSRS methodology statement, so sample sizes and error margins for the state subsamples are not given here.\n\n## Trump: \"I am absolutely willing to accept those results\"\n\nPresident Trump's reaction came in two registers. In an interview with The New York Times late Tuesday, as early counts pointed to a Democratic sweep, he said, \"I am absolutely willing to accept those results,\" and added that he would \"work with the Democrats,\" [Investing.com reported](https://sg.news.yahoo.com/trump-tells-nyt-accept-election-044751373.html). Reuters quoted him from the same interview saying, \"We'll work with the Democrats, and we'll, you know, look forward to working with them,\" and \"We'll probably work something out,\" [per the Times of Israel's live blog](https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/trump-tells-nytimes-hes-willing-to-work-with-the-democrats-after-midterms/). Earlier in the campaign, he had told NBC he would accept the results only if they were \"honest,\" according to the Investing.com account.\n\nOn Truth Social he struck a different note. ABC News reported that he posted that Republicans \"would have won IN A LANDSLIDE\" had he been on the ballot, in a headline on its [live blog](https://abc7.com/live-updates/midterm-elections-2026-live-updates-election-results-key-races-us/20001292/entry/20013996/); a Lebanese outlet quoted the post as \"If my name had been on the ballot, we would have won in a landslide,\" [in its account](https://dailybeirut.com/en/world/trumps-first-comment-on-midterm-election-loss/). We could not open Truth Social to verify the exact wording.\n\nBefore polls closed, Trump had told CBS News how he expected to govern alongside a Democratic Congress. \"I have the ultimate power — it's called 'veto,'\" he said, and \"Historically, you veto for a couple of months and then they come and say, 'We've got to make a deal.'\" He also pointed to the Supreme Court's 6-3 ruling in Trump v. Slaughter, which let him remove a Federal Trade Commission member: \"We won the Slaughter case and the Slaughter case gives the president tremendous powers that it never had before,\" [CBS reported](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-midterm-election-2026-interview/). Two people close to the president told CBS the White House had discussed executive actions on immigration and trade for next year. Our story on [the House result](https://567politics.com/news/democrats-win-house-majority-jeffries-speaker-election-night-november-2026) has more on what a Democratic Congress can and cannot do against a veto.\n\nChuck Schumer, who led the Senate majority from 2021 to 2025 and is in line to do so again, had predicted the outcome Tuesday morning. \"Nauseously optimistic,\" he told ABC News after voting in Brooklyn, saying that whether Democrats work with Trump \"will be up to him\" and that \"we're going to fight Trump tooth and nail and focus on the issues no matter what he does,\" [per the network's live blog](https://abc7news.com/live-updates/midterm-elections-2026-live-updates-election-results-key-races-us/20001292/entry/20011824/). We found no post-call statement from Schumer, Senate Majority Leader John Thune or the National Republican Senatorial Committee in the sources we could open before 1 a.m. Eastern. Republican leaders' response is the main missing voice in this article.\n\nHamilton's first public words were on X. \"Thank you, Kansas. Thank you for your faith in me and for the opportunity to fight for you in Washington,\" he wrote late Tuesday, adding that voters \"will hear more from me soon,\" [WGME reported](https://wgme.com/news/nation-world/adam-hamilton-becomes-first-democratic-senator-from-kansas-in-nearly-100-years-senate-congress-pastor-church-of-the-resurrection-faith-politics-midterm-elections-midterms-vote-voters-voting-polls-ballots). We were unable to load X during this run to confirm the post against its permalink, so the quotation rests on WGME's report. Neither Marshall nor Hinson had conceded in the reports we read.\n\n## What a 51-seat majority can and cannot do\n\nA Senate majority controls the floor calendar, committee chairs and, most consequentially, the confirmation of judges and executive nominees. It does not change the arithmetic of a veto override, which needs two-thirds of both chambers, nor the 60-vote threshold for most legislation. With roughly 51 to 53 seats, depending on Michigan, Maine and Alaska, Democrats will be able to decline to take up nominations and to hold hearings with subpoena power, but they will need Republican votes to pass anything Trump has not agreed to.\n\nThe practical questions for the next two months are who chairs Judiciary and Finance, whether any Supreme Court vacancy arises before January, and how the lame-duck Republican majority handles pending nominations. Thune's office had not said how it would use the remaining weeks of its majority in anything we could read on Tuesday night.\n\n## The Alaska wrinkle\n\nAlaska's Senate race between Sen. Dan Sullivan and former Rep. Mary Peltola is counted under ranked-choice rules, and polls closed at 1 a.m. Eastern. Before the vote, the Justice Department sued to block certification of a Peltola win and widened a criminal investigation into her campaign over the recruitment of a second candidate named Dan Sullivan; a federal judge dismissed the suit on Sunday, and the department appealed. 567politics covered [the target letters and the two Sullivans](https://567politics.com/news/alaska-senate-doj-target-letters-democrats-elias-two-sullivans-election-day-november-2026) on Election Day. If the Decision Desk HQ and ABC projections hold, the Alaska result will affect the size of the majority rather than its existence.\n\n## Online reaction: what we could not verify\n\nThis article contains no characterization of public opinion drawn from social media. The Voter Poll figures above are its only measure of what voters think. We attempted to read Reddit's r/politics, r/worldnews, r/Conservative, r/neoliberal, r/moderatepolitics and r/PoliticalDiscussion listings and X's trending pages during this run; every request to Reddit was refused, and X's pages could not be read. Our post-verification tool, which checks a post's text and author against its permalink, could not retrieve X posts tonight. The one Bluesky account we could verify was Decision Desk HQ's, whose race calls are cited above. Because of that, we cannot say what posts were most shared about the Senate result, and we have not quoted ordinary users. The gap is a limit of our access, not evidence that there was no reaction.\n\n## What remains unknown\n\nThe size of the majority. Michigan, Maine and Alaska had not been called by any desk we could read at 1 a.m. Eastern. Decision Desk HQ's Maine page showed Troy Jackson ahead of Sen. Susan Collins 53.0% to 45.8% with an estimated 67% reported at 12:18 a.m., [per the race page](https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/2026-11-03/maine-us-senate-general-election), though the same page displayed a smaller margin in its header; Maine also uses ranked-choice tabulation if no candidate passes 50%. Michigan's count was early. Alaska's will take days.\n\nWhether any losing candidate or the Justice Department contests a Senate result. Trump's statement that he accepts the results is the most direct answer so far from the administration; the Alaska litigation is the open question.\n\nThe final margins in Kansas and Iowa, and whether the Senate count tracks the House, where Democrats gained at least nine Republican-held seats by 10:40 p.m. Eastern. The official canvasses in all six flipped states will take weeks.","textStyle":"body","layout":"text"}]}