| Measure (Jan. 20, 2025 to Jul. 31, 2026) | MPI estimate |
|---|
| Total deportations by ICE and CBP | About 980,000 |
| Of which ICE voluntary departures or returns | About 170,000 |
| People intercepted at the border and turned around by CBP | About 340,000 (35%) |
| People first arrested at the border and deported by ICE | About 340,000 (34%) |
| People first arrested in the U.S. interior | About 300,000 (31%) |
| Deportations involving a criminal conviction | About 190,000 (20%) |
","layout":"text"},{"role":"body","format":"markdown","text":"Source: Migration Policy Institute, October 2026.\n\nThe interior share has grown. MPI puts it at 28% for 2025, 34% for the first half of 2026 and 39% for July 2026. Monthly deportations after interior arrests rose from an average of 8,000 in the first three months of the administration to 19,000 in May through July 2026. Total monthly deportations ran between 46,000 and 57,000, and MPI projects roughly 660,000 for fiscal year 2026. That is above the average for fiscal years 2021 through 2024 (by 26%) and for fiscal years 2017 through 2020 (by 42%), but below the 1.86 million recorded in fiscal year 2000 and below the administration's stated target of 1 million a year.\n\nOn who is being deported, MPI reports that excluding border turnarounds by CBP, 61% of ICE deportations were of people who had lived in the United States at least two years, about 390,000 people, and 90,000 had been in the country at least ten years. Among those with two or more years of residence, 71% (280,000) had no criminal conviction; among those with ten or more years, 61% (57,000) had none. Across all deportations, 20% involved a conviction. Among formal removals, 31% involved convicted people, compared with an average of 44% in fiscal years 2009 through 2021. The most common convictions were illegal entry or re-entry (23%) and traffic offenses, including drunk driving (21%).\n\n## How DHS describes its record\n\nDHS and its leaders have described enforcement as aimed at dangerous people and as a success measured in border numbers and departures. In an October 16 release on fiscal year 2026 border data, DHS said southwest border apprehensions totaled 98,708, a 95% decline from more than 1.8 million a year under the previous administration. [The release](https://www.dhs.gov/news/2026/10/16/under-president-trump-and-secretary-mullin-dhs-announces-lowest-fiscal-year-border) quotes Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin as saying \"strong enforcement works\" and that the administration has \"made America safer than ever.\" Mullin was confirmed by the Senate 54 to 45 on March 23, 2026, and sworn in the next day; his record is on his [567 Politics profile](https://567politics.com/politicians/markwayne-mullin).\n\nOn total departures, a [March 5 DHS release](https://www.dhs.gov/news/2026/03/05/thanks-president-trump-and-secretary-noem-america-safer) said \"3 million illegal aliens have left the U.S.,\" describing the total as an estimated 2.2 million self-deportations and more than 713,000 deportations. That release came before Mullin took office, and it announced that the then-secretary had been named a special envoy. MPI's paper says DHS later cited \"over 985,000\" deportations as of July 12, according to Politico, and that Mullin announced 845,931 deportations through July 16 in a video that Forbes carried on July 17. The two figures differ, and 567 Politics did not open the Politico or Forbes items.\n\nThe department answered the MPI paper publicly. On October 25, DHS called the report \"FAKE NEWS\" in a post on X, according to the Hindustan Times, and said most ICE removals involved migrants arrested inside the United States. It also said the country had recorded 17 months with zero releases of migrants at the border and repeated its claim of more than 3 million departures, which it described as net negative migration for the first time in more than 50 years. The Hindustan Times reported that the department's post \"did not include a detailed breakdown to reconcile its position with MPI's findings.\" 567 Politics has not seen DHS publish such a breakdown.\n\nThe two statements may measure different things. MPI's 69% border share includes CBP turnarounds, which DHS's statement about ICE removals would not. Using MPI's rounded figures, interior arrests account for about 300,000 of roughly 640,000 ICE deportations, or about 47%. That ratio is 567 Politics' own arithmetic, not an MPI finding, and rounding matters. It would be below a majority, but the share has been rising. 567 Politics could not verify DHS's claim with a published figure.\n\n## The 3 million claim\n\nThe largest gap is in the count of people who left on their own. MPI calculates that DHS's 3 million figure would include about 1 million deportations and about 2 million self-departures of unauthorized immigrants. The deportation portion includes border turnarounds and people present in the country less than a year, which MPI's own methodology excludes. It estimates between 790,000 and 1.9 million total departures of immigrants with at least a year of U.S. residence, which breaks down as about 480,000 deportations and between 310,000 and 1.5 million self-departures. Counting border turnarounds and shorter-term residents, its range for all departures is 1.3 million to 2.4 million.\n\nMPI writes that the DHS self-departure figure is \"approximately double\" its own estimate for self-departures of unauthorized and lawfully present immigrants, and that the DHS count cannot be verified with publicly available data. It adds that DHS's count likely includes some lawfully present immigrants and U.S. citizens who left through Project Homecoming, a program that offers a free flight and an exit bonus of up to $2,600. A DHS and Justice Department rule issued in October 2026, according to the MPI paper, found 82,000 departures of people with removal orders or voluntary-departure grants through that program or other known self-departures between March 2025 and September 14, 2026. MPI says the government does not collect data on most land exits at the Mexican border, so neither side can count self-departures directly.\n\n## Arrests and criminal records\n\nThe deportation totals rest on a separate question: who ICE arrests. The administration has repeatedly described its targets as dangerous criminals. The data tell a more mixed story, and the most detailed analyses come from researchers who obtained ICE records through public-records requests.\n\nIn a January 28 analysis, [FactCheck.org](https://www.factcheck.org/2026/01/as-ice-arrests-increased-a-higher-portion-had-no-u-s-criminal-record/) examined ICE arrest data from the Deportation Data Project through mid-October 2025. It found that about 36.5% of people ICE arrested in the first year had criminal convictions and another 29.8% faced pending charges, which together make 66%. About a third had neither. The share of arrests with no criminal record rose from 21.9% in the first three months to 34.2% in the second three months and 40.5% in the three months to mid-October; the share with convictions fell from 44.7% to 31.8%.","textStyle":"body","layout":"text"},{"role":"htmltable","html":"