| Indicator | Figure in the Treasury report | Reported by |
|---|
| Value of the rial since Aug. 24 | Down about 25% | Axios, Iran International |
| Unofficial exchange rate, October | 2,687,000 rials per U.S. dollar (record low) | Axios, Iran International |
| Annual inflation, September | About 90%, versus about 35% in early 2025 | Axios |
| Oil loaded onto tankers | None since Aug. 25 | Axios |
","layout":"text"},{"role":"body","format":"markdown","text":"Iran International also reported a Treasury calculation, using Kpler shipping data, of Iranian or suspected Iranian oil unloaded at known locations. The 30-day moving average fell to about 400,000 barrels per day by Oct. 19, from more than 1 million barrels per day around the launch of the campaign. Treasury attributes the drop to the blockade and targeted sanctions. Axios said Iran has also sold off its remaining oil that was stranded at sea, according to Kpler.\n\nThe report also covers trade and travel. Iran has tried to move goods overland to get around the blockade. The report says this faces \"major bottlenecks\" at borders with Pakistan, Turkey, Afghanistan and Turkmenistan. Axios and Iran International report that thousands of trucks are stranded at the Turkish border with delays of up to 20 days, and hundreds more wait at the Pakistani border. The United Arab Emirates, Oman, Iraq, Georgia and Azerbaijan have barred Iranian airlines and canceled flights to Iran, the report says. Iran International adds that Iraq has certain religious-travel exemptions for Najaf. Turkey has suspended all Mahan Air flights.\n\nOn finance, Axios reports that Iranian banks have faced new restrictions in Turkey, Lebanon and the UAE, and that Treasury is targeting cryptocurrency exchanges used to avoid sanctions. Iran International lists examples from the report. Turkish regulators took control of one sanctioned bank and revoked the license of another. Lebanon revoked the license of an Iranian bank branch. The UAE took enforcement steps against Iranian bank branches. Treasury said the operation will continue and warned that anyone knowingly helping Iran avoid sanctions should expect more U.S. action.\n\n## How the campaign began\n\nTreasury announced the campaign, called Operation Economic Outcast, on Aug. 24. Its press release said the action was taken \"at President Trump's direction\" and was \"an unprecedented, whole-of-government, economic campaign against the Islamic Republic of Iran and its enablers.\" The release said Treasury issued determinations against five sectors: digital assets, technology, gold, aviation and shipping. It also said the Office of Foreign Assets Control sanctioned nearly 60 entities, individuals and vessels.\n\nBessent said in the release: \"Our objective is to sever every economic lifeline that sustains this tyrannical regime until Tehran stands alone.\" He added that \"America is no longer managing the Iranian threat. We are ending it.\" The release said every country would be given a defined timeline to shut down the Iran-related activity Treasury had identified, and that Treasury would act if they failed to do so.\n\n## What Bessent has said since\n\nBessent spoke to the Farsi-language outlet Iran International on Oct. 26. He said Iran has \"no oil on the water.\" He said: \"There have been no loadings at Kharg Island. Production is starting to falter.\" He forecast that Iran's economy would shrink by more than 25 percent between March 2026 and March 2027, a figure he compared with the contraction of the Soviet economy after its collapse. He said the next eight weeks of the campaign would be \"even more intense.\"\n\nHe also addressed Iranian households directly. \"My advice to the Iranian people would be: don't pay your taxes because you're not going to get anything back from the government,\" he said. He told people to stock heating fuel and fill their gasoline tanks. He said the campaign is meant to pressure Iran's leaders, not its people, and that humanitarian channels remain open for food and medicine. He said Iran is running out of dollars to pay for imports, and that authorities are printing money and failing to pay salaries.\n\nIran International reported that many people who commented on its post questioned his advice. Some said taxes are deducted from pay automatically. Others said they had no room to store fuel. One wrote that Iranians should not be asked to \"risk their families and lives\" only for the United States to bomb the country. Others supported more economic non-cooperation. These comments are a small sample from one outlet's audience, not a poll.\n\nBessent also told Newsmax earlier in October, as Iran International reported, that the United States is working with Turkey and Pakistan to \"cut off all the land routes\" into Iran. \"We did have a maximum pressure campaign. Now we have an absolute isolation campaign and it's working,\" he said. He rejected the idea that Iran could wait out the U.S. midterm elections: \"Nothing will change in terms of President Trump's calculus.\"\n\n## What Iranian officials and specialists say\n\nIran's president said in August that \"some say sanctions have no effect at all; to those people, I really don't know what to say,\" according to Iran International. A deputy labor minister, speaking to the ILNA news agency, said Iran's economy contracted 10 percent excluding oil, and 4.6 percent including oil, in the spring. He warned that up to 1.4 million people could leave the labor market this year if the economy shrinks by seven to eight percent. Those are Iranian official figures reported by Iran International.\n\nIran's foreign ministry spokesperson said on Monday that the Strait of Hormuz cannot reopen unless the United States ends its blockade and meets Iran's demands, according to the Tehran Times. He said the demands are steps to restore security, not preconditions. His position is that pressure has not changed Iran's priorities.\n\nAt an Iran International town hall on Oct. 11, three specialists disagreed about whether pressure will produce concessions. Kerri Bitsoff, a former senior official at Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control, said enforcement is what separates this campaign from earlier rounds. She said economic hardship alone is unlikely to persuade Iran's leaders, but pressure could affect security officials whose loyalty depends on salaries and privileges. Patrick Clawson of the Washington Institute said concessions are possible and suggested Iran could accept a three-year suspension of enrichment. Mohammad Machine-Chian, an Iran International economist, was more skeptical that Iran would give up its nuclear and regional goals.\n\nHomayoun Falakshahi, head of crude oil analysis at Kpler, told Iran International that crude and condensate export revenue could fall to zero by mid-December if the blockade holds. He said sanctions evasion is harder against a physical blockade, and that he doubts Tehran is ready for major compromises on its nuclear program.\n\n## A Reuters investigation on evasion\n\nThe same Iran International page summarized a Reuters investigation that points the other way on one question. Reuters, working with the risk consultancy 240 Analytics, examined shipping records for a network of agencies that use the name of Iran's defense ministry. One agency imported $2.3 billion in military-related goods between January 2025 and June 2026, Reuters found. In 97% of the shipments reviewed, payment was recorded as settled \"without currency transfer,\" which allows purchases with funds held outside Iran.\n\nReuters said imports fell 47% to $54 million in March, shortly after the war began, and recovered to $77 million by May. It said it found no evidence that the numbered agencies had been individually sanctioned by Western governments. It also said it could not confirm that all the goods were meant for weapons, since many have civilian and military uses. A Treasury spokesperson told Reuters the United States had cut off Iran's economic lifelines. \"While the regime may continue its desperate attempts to evade our powerful sanctions, fund its military and weapons programs, and access foreign currency, we are always 10 steps ahead,\" the spokesperson said. China's foreign ministry said it was unaware of the shipments.\n\n## The debate inside the administration\n\nAxios reported on Monday that Trump is weighing three courses, each backed by a different group of advisers.","textStyle":"body","layout":"text"},{"role":"htmltable","html":"