| Poll (sponsor) | Dates | Hyde-Smith | Colom |
|---|
| Data for Progress (Way to Lead PAC and partners), 1,018 LV | Aug. 5–15, 2026 | 44% | 38% |
| Same poll, after biographies | Aug. 5–15, 2026 | 40% | 40% |
| Unofficial count at 3 a.m. CT, Nov. 4 | Nov. 3, 2026 | 48.9% | 48.9% |
","layout":"text"},{"role":"body","format":"markdown","text":"Source: [Data for Progress release](https://chartingthewayforward.substack.com/p/research-release-fresh-polling-from); [WITN](https://www.witn.com/2026/11/04/colom-hyde-smith-separated-by-narrow-margin-mississippi-senate-race/). Pinkins drew 7% in the poll and about 2.1% in the count.\n\nA second survey circulated in October under the name Wedgewood Polls. Newsweek retracted its article on that poll after the firm said its results were fabricated as a \"social experiment,\" [according to the retraction notice](https://www.newsweek.com/democrat-threatens-historic-senate-upset-in-deep-red-mississippi-12571424). We do not report its figures. The practical point is that the race ended far closer than any credible public survey showed, which is consistent with the national pattern on Tuesday. Democrats also flipped seats in [South Carolina and Texas](https://567politics.com/news/south-carolina-senate-andrews-defeats-graham-texas-talarico-november-2026), two states that had not elected a Democratic senator in decades.\n\nPrediction markets priced the race too. Our [Mississippi Senate race page](https://567politics.com/races/mississippi-senate-2026) tracks contract prices from five market sources. Those are prices paid by traders, not polls, and they do not establish how likely any outcome was.\n\n## The campaign behind the margin\n\nThe two candidates had a history before this race. In 2023, Hyde-Smith blocked President Biden's nomination of Colom to a federal judgeship in the Northern District of Mississippi. She cited donations to his district attorney campaign from a PAC tied to George Soros and his support for transgender rights, the Mississippi Free Press reported. Colom's nomination lapsed.\n\nThe 2026 campaign drew national figures to a state that rarely sees them. Trump held a rally for Hyde-Smith in Corinth on October 26. Former President Bill Clinton and former Vice President Kamala Harris campaigned for Colom in Tupelo and Columbus. In late October, Attorney General Lynn Fitch said a Colom ad that used an AI-generated depiction of Hyde-Smith may have broken state law; Colom said he would delete the ad, [Mississippi Today reported](https://mississippitoday.org/2026/10/23/scott-colom-says-hell-delete-ai-generated-cindy-hyde-smith-ad-after-ag-fitch-threatens-legal-action/).\n\nHyde-Smith's [567politics profile](https://567politics.com/politicians/cindy-hyde-smith) carries a campaign-finance snapshot drawn from the Federal Election Commission. The snapshot, retrieved on November 3, 2026, covers PAC contributions reported on line 11(c) of her principal committee's Form 3 filings for the 2026 cycle; it is not a total of all receipts and excludes individual donors. The largest reported PAC contributor in that subset was the Committee Organized for the Trading of Cotton PAC of the American Cotton Shippers Association at $11,000 over three transactions, followed by several farm, credit-union and industry PACs at $10,000 each, [per the FEC candidate record](https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/S8MS00261/?cycle=2026). Through June 30, 2026, Hyde-Smith reported raising about $5.46 million to Colom's $2.38 million, according to FEC summaries compiled by [the Wikipedia article on the race](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_Mississippi). Those are campaign receipts; independent spending by outside groups is reported separately and is not included. None of this establishes any link between contributions and either candidate's positions.\n\n## Arguments on each side\n\nHyde-Smith's closing message was continuity. She told supporters she had run \"a very good campaign\" and would \"continue to be your U.S. Senator,\" and she campaigned alongside Trump, whose rally in Corinth tied her candidacy to his administration. Her 2023 objections to Colom's judicial nomination, which cited the Soros-linked PAC donations and his positions on transgender rights, previewed the lines her side used in the race, per the Mississippi Free Press. Colom's closing message was turnout and competitiveness. He told supporters the campaign was \"trending in counties people thought we had no chance to compete in, and we're winning them,\" the Columbus Dispatch reported, and his election-night post cited \"historic voter turnout.\" Both messages were made before the vote; a near-tie suggests neither persuaded a clear majority.\n\nPinkins's 2 percent is not evidence that his voters would otherwise have chosen Colom; some may have stayed home or voted for Hyde-Smith. We did not find a post-election statement from his campaign.\n\n## What people are saying online\n\nOur usual method is to sample threads on X and Reddit directly. During this run, Reddit's listings and X's pages were not reachable from our research desk, so what follows is a narrow selection of posts surfaced through web search, with their permalinks. We could not open the posts themselves to confirm wording or engagement counts, and we report no like or repost figures. Treat these as examples of expressed views, not as a measure of opinion in Mississippi or anywhere else.\n\nColom's own account posted early Wednesday that the race was \"too close to call\" and that the campaign would \"make sure every single vote has been counted,\" adding that he was \"confident we will ultimately flip this seat\" ([permalink](https://x.com/scott_colom/status/2117874973649916245)). NBC News reporter Sahil Kapur posted that the race was too close to call with Colom ahead by 28 votes and more than 96 percent counted ([permalink](https://x.com/sahilkapur/status/2117860143433937085)). A user posting as Garrett Herrin, whose location we could not confirm, noted that Mississippi allows no automatic or candidate-requested recounts, so a narrow margin would not trigger one ([permalink](https://x.com/GarrettHerrin/status/2117864583813603625)). That reading matches the state's law as summarized above.\n\nNo representative poll of Mississippians' reaction to the count exists yet. We found none from Hyde-Smith's official account addressing the overnight shift in the lead, and her campaign had not issued a statement on the affidavit count as of this report.\n\n## What remains unknown\n\nThe outcome. The number of affidavit ballots is unconfirmed, and their partisan lean is unknown, though they are often cast in urban precincts. The number of mailed ballots still in transit is also unknown. Whether either campaign will examine ballot boxes or file a contest will depend on the final margin. The Senate's new majority is settled; its exact size, and whether Mississippi joins the list of states that changed parties on Tuesday, will wait for the clerks.","textStyle":"body","layout":"text"}]}