{"version":"1.9","identifier":"ea9cbc95-45ef-4206-bbcc-2af12d7e8287","language":"en-US","title":"Final Nevada polls show Lombardo and Ford in a dead heat as Democrats lead the early vote","layout":{"columns":7,"width":1024,"margin":32,"gutter":20},"componentLayouts":{"text":{"columnStart":0,"columnSpan":7,"maximumContentWidth":720,"margin":{"top":12,"bottom":12}},"photo":{"columnStart":0,"columnSpan":7,"margin":{"top":20,"bottom":20}}},"componentTextStyles":{"default":{"fontName":"HelveticaNeue","fontSize":18,"lineHeight":29,"textColor":"#171717"},"headline":{"fontName":"HelveticaNeue-Bold","fontSize":36,"lineHeight":42,"conditional":[{"conditions":{"maxViewportWidth":480},"fontSize":28,"lineHeight":34}]},"intro":{"fontName":"HelveticaNeue","fontSize":20,"lineHeight":28,"textColor":"#555555"},"caption":{"fontName":"HelveticaNeue","fontSize":13,"lineHeight":19,"textColor":"#666666"},"byline":{"fontName":"HelveticaNeue","fontSize":13,"lineHeight":20,"textColor":"#666666"},"body":{"fontName":"HelveticaNeue","fontSize":18,"lineHeight":29,"paragraphSpacingAfter":14,"linkStyle":{"textColor":"#00704a"}}},"metadata":{"canonicalURL":"https://567politics.com/news/nevada-governor-lombardo-ford-final-polls-november-2026","datePublished":"2026-11-02T20:21:44.131969Z","dateModified":"2026-11-02T20:22:57.027746Z","authors":["567 Politics staff"],"excerpt":"Three late surveys put the governor's race between a tie and a 4-point Ford edge, while Democrats hold a ballot lead of nearly 6 points heading into Election Day.","thumbnailURL":"https://pub-fac99da959e344fe99d810d309cef7df.r2.dev/photos/article/ea9cbc95-45ef-4206-bbcc-2af12d7e8287/0e513900b2b67dddbad5093a2b75e98f.jpg","keywords":["elections"],"generatorName":"Frog News","generatorVersion":"1.0"},"components":[{"role":"title","text":"Final Nevada polls show Lombardo and Ford in a dead heat as Democrats lead the early vote","textStyle":"headline","layout":"text"},{"role":"intro","text":"Three late surveys put the governor's race between a tie and a 4-point Ford edge, while Democrats hold a ballot lead of nearly 6 points heading into Election Day.","textStyle":"intro","layout":"text"},{"role":"byline","text":"By 567 Politics staff · Published November 2, 2026","textStyle":"byline","layout":"text"},{"role":"photo","URL":"https://pub-fac99da959e344fe99d810d309cef7df.r2.dev/photos/article/ea9cbc95-45ef-4206-bbcc-2af12d7e8287/0e513900b2b67dddbad5093a2b75e98f.jpg","caption":"The Nevada State Capitol in Carson City. Gov. Joe Lombardo faces Attorney General Aaron Ford on Nov. 3. · Quintin Soloviev via Wikimedia Commons, CC0 1.0 (https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/)","accessibilityCaption":"The Nevada State Capitol in Carson City. Gov. Joe Lombardo faces Attorney General Aaron Ford on Nov. 3.","layout":"photo"},{"role":"caption","text":"The Nevada State Capitol in Carson City. Gov. Joe Lombardo faces Attorney General Aaron Ford on Nov. 3. · Quintin Soloviev via Wikimedia Commons, CC0 1.0 (https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/)","textStyle":"caption","layout":"text"},{"role":"body","format":"markdown","text":"Nevada's race for governor heads into Election Day as one of the closest in the country. Republican Gov. [Joe Lombardo](https://567politics.com/politicians/joe-lombardo) is seeking a second term against Democratic Attorney General [Aaron Ford](https://567politics.com/politicians/aaron-d-ford). The three most recent public polls reviewed by 567 Politics put the race between a tie and a 4-point Ford lead. Every one of those results falls within or near the poll's margin of error.\n\nAt the same time, registered Democrats have cast more early and mail ballots than Republicans by close to 6 percentage points, according to a running count by Jon Ralston of The Nevada Independent. Ralston and other analysts say the governor's race may come down to how many Republicans vote on Tuesday and how nonpartisan voters split.\n\nThis story sets out what the final polls found and who paid for them. It also explains what the early-vote numbers do and do not show, and how the two candidates are closing. Results will appear on our [Nevada governor race page](https://567politics.com/races/nevada-governor-2026) as counties report.\n\n## The final polls\n\nThree polls released in the last week of October show the race within a few points. Two of them were paid for by political groups: one backed by the Democratic Governors Association and one a super PAC. Readers should weigh that when comparing them.","textStyle":"body","layout":"text"},{"role":"htmltable","html":"<table><tr><th>Poll (field dates)</th><th>Voters</th><th>Result</th><th>Sponsor</th></tr><tr><td>Noble Predictive Insights (Oct. 26–28)</td><td>487 likely</td><td>Ford 47, Lombardo 47</td><td>None stated (firm's own poll)</td></tr><tr><td>Hart Research (Oct. 20–25)</td><td>950 likely</td><td>Ford 49, Lombardo 45</td><td>DGA-backed A More Affordable Nevada</td></tr><tr><td>RedBox Research (Oct. 20–23)</td><td>1,470 likely</td><td>Ford 46, Lombardo 43</td><td>A Fight Worth Having (super PAC)</td></tr></table>","layout":"text"},{"role":"body","format":"markdown","text":"```chart\ntype: column\ntitle: Nevada governor's race in three final polls\nnote: Percent of likely voters. The Hart poll was paid for by a DGA-backed group and the RedBox poll by a super PAC.\nsuffix: %\nsource: [Noble Predictive Insights](https://www.noblepredictiveinsights.com/post/nevada-poll-of-record-lombardo-ford-deadlocked-at-47), [Democratic Governors Association release on Hart poll](https://democraticgovernors.org/updates/new-poll-from-dga-backed-group-shows-aaron-ford-leading-joe-lombardo-in-nevada-governors-race/), [A Fight Worth Having / RedBox Research](https://afightworthhaving.com/polling/2026/nevada/governor)\n---\nPoll | Ford (D) | Lombardo (R)\nNoble (Oct. 26-28) | 47 | 47\nHart (Oct. 20-25) | 49 | 45\nRedBox (Oct. 20-23) | 46 | 43\n```\n\n### Noble Predictive Insights: tied at 47%\n\nThe [Noble Predictive Insights poll](https://www.noblepredictiveinsights.com/post/nevada-poll-of-record-lombardo-ford-deadlocked-at-47), released Oct. 30, surveyed 487 likely voters from Oct. 26 to 28 by text message linked to an online survey. Its margin of error is plus or minus 4.44 points. The Phoenix-based firm describes itself as nonpartisan, and its release does not name a sponsor.\n\nLombardo and Ford each had 47%. Independent candidate Danielle Ford, who is not related to the attorney general, had 1%, another 1% chose another candidate, and 4% were undecided. Each nominee held about nine in ten voters of his own party. Ford led independents 45% to 39%, but 10% of independents were undecided.\n\nThe poll found wide gaps by age and sex. Voters ages 18 to 44 backed Ford 58% to 34%, while voters 45 and older backed Lombardo 55% to 40%. Men favored Lombardo 53% to 42%, and women favored Ford 51% to 42%.\n\nPresident Donald Trump's job approval among these voters was 42%, with 58% disapproving. Lombardo ran 5 points ahead of that approval number, and 18% of his supporters said they disapproved of Trump. \"That tells you this governor's race isn't simply a referendum on the White House,\" said Mike Noble, the firm's founder.\n\nAbout 45% of respondents said they had already voted. Ford led among them 55% to 42%, while Lombardo led 51% to 39% among those who had not yet voted. Noble said that means \"a substantial part of his support still needs to become a vote.\"\n\nThe same poll found Democrats ahead in the other three statewide races it tested. It also found majority support for Question 6, an abortion-rights amendment (57% to 34%), and Question 7, a voter identification amendment (58% to 37%). Both measures passed in 2024 and must pass again this year to amend the state constitution.\n\n### Hart Research: Ford ahead by 4\n\nHart Research, a Democratic polling firm, surveyed 950 likely voters from Oct. 20 to 25 for A More Affordable Nevada, a group backed by the Democratic Governors Association. The poll found Ford ahead 49% to 45%, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 points, according to the [DGA's release](https://democraticgovernors.org/updates/new-poll-from-dga-backed-group-shows-aaron-ford-leading-joe-lombardo-in-nevada-governors-race/). The DGA said the poll found Trump's favorability 18 points underwater and Lombardo's 10 points underwater. The release does not include the full questionnaire, so we could not review the wording or method.\n\n### RedBox Research: Ford ahead by 3\n\n[RedBox Research](https://afightworthhaving.com/polling/2026/nevada/governor), which published its results through the super PAC A Fight Worth Having, surveyed 1,470 likely voters from Oct. 20 to 23. Voters were invited by text to an online survey. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.6 points. Ford had 46%, Lombardo 43%, Danielle Ford 2%, \"None of these candidates\" 3% and undecided 4%.\n\n### Earlier polls\n\nThe [270toWin listing](https://www.270towin.com/2026-governor-polls/nevada) of public Nevada governor polls shows how the race has tightened as undecided voters made up their minds. Noble's own Oct. 6 poll had Lombardo ahead 42% to 40%, with 18% choosing neither. An Emerson College poll released Sept. 10 had Ford ahead 44% to 42%. We did not review the original releases for those earlier polls.\n\n## What the early vote shows\n\nNevada mails a ballot to every active registered voter, and most votes are cast before Election Day. Early in-person voting ended Oct. 30.\n\nAs of Monday morning, about 732,000 ballots had been cast, roughly 35% of active voters, [Ralston reported](https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-2026-general). Registered Democrats led Republicans by more than 43,000 ballots statewide, just under 6 percentage points. In Clark County, home to Las Vegas and most of the state's voters, the Democratic lead was about 66,000 ballots, or 13.7 points.\n\nBallot counts by party registration are not vote counts. Some Democrats will vote for Lombardo and some Republicans for Ford, and about a quarter of ballots so far come from voters registered with neither major party. Ralston wrote that the governor \"will get some crossover votes, almost certainly more than Ford will.\"\n\nRalston also argued that turnout itself was \"not overwhelming.\" Clark County ballots were up 12.6% from the same point in 2022. But as a share of active voters, Clark turnout was 33.0%, compared with 33.6% in 2022, because the county's active voter rolls are about 15% larger. He wrote that the pattern reflects Republicans \"lagging so far behind\" rather than \"some extraordinary Dem turnout.\"\n\n## What Republicans need on Election Day\n\nLombardo won in 2022 even though Democrats led the pre-Election Day ballot count. That year, Republicans cast 101,090 of the 215,517 ballots on Election Day (47%), compared with 53,368 for Democrats (25%), according to figures Ralston cited. Lombardo beat Gov. Steve Sisolak by 15,386 votes.\n\nRalston wrote on Nov. 1 that Republicans would need about 194,000 Election Day ballots breaking the way they did in 2022 to erase the current ballot gap. On Monday he modeled about 250,000 Election Day ballots split the way they were in 2022. That would give Republicans a 55,000-ballot edge, which he called \"a best-case scenario for the GOP.\" He wrote that it \"would make some races a bit closer but not change outcomes, I'd guess, except, perhaps, for the governor's race.\" He also wrote that \"smart folks on both sides think the governor's race remains a toss-up.\"\n\nThose are one analyst's estimates, built on assumptions about turnout and party loyalty. Mail ballots can still arrive through the following Saturday, and voters can fix signature problems after that. Ralston expects the count to take about a week.\n\n## The closing arguments\n\nThe two candidates have framed the race in different terms.\n\nLombardo has run on his record and on keeping taxes flat. His campaign's [second-term plan](https://www.joelombardofornv.com/governor-lombardo-announces-nevadans-working-together-plan), released Sept. 3, cites \"100,000 new jobs,\" \"$6 billion in private investment\" and \"no new taxes\" during his term. It promises to keep a \"commitment to No New Taxes\" and create an annual back-to-school sales tax holiday. It would expand down-payment help through the state's Attainable Housing Program. It also pledges that \"no Nevadan loses power or pays higher rates to subsidize data centers.\" The [Nevada Globe reported](https://thenevadaglobe.com/articles/final-48-nevada-republicans-make-closing-push-for-buck-flippo-odonnell-and-lombardo/) that Lombardo has stressed education, public safety, health care and the economy.\n\nFord has built his campaign around living costs and opposition to Trump administration policies. His [campaign's issues page](https://www.fordfornevada.com/issues) says he would \"crack down on Wall Street firms\" buying homes, ease permitting, relieve medical debt and take on pharmacy benefit managers. It says data centers \"will need to bring their own clean energy, electrical grid infrastructure, and water.\" The page also blames \"Trump tariffs that Lombardo supports\" for a drop in tourism.\n\nProminent Democrats campaigned in the state in the final two weeks. Ford made a surprise appearance at an Oct. 24 rally in North Las Vegas with Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, [The Nevada Independent reported](https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/what-eight-last-minute-trips-to-nevada-reveal-about-the-2028-presidential-race). Republican campaigns, the Nevada Globe reported, were focused in the final 48 hours on \"making sure their supporters actually cast ballots.\"\n\nLombardo also had more money for the final stretch. He entered October with about $2.8 million in his campaign account, compared with about $1.3 million for Ford, according to Noble's summary of state campaign finance reports through Sept. 30. Those figures do not include outside groups, which the Nevada Globe reported have spent millions on the race.\n\n## The wider picture\n\nNevada is one of a handful of states where national trends and a local incumbent pull in different directions. National polls show Democrats ahead on the congressional ballot, as we reported in [our roundup of the final national polls](https://567politics.com/news/final-national-polls-generic-ballot-nbc-emerson-trump-approval-november-2026). In Georgia, polls also show a gap between a comfortable Democratic Senate lead and a close governor's race, as described in [our Georgia final-polls report](https://567politics.com/news/georgia-senate-ossoff-collins-governor-final-polls-november-2026). For how early voting compares in other battlegrounds, see our [early-voting report](https://567politics.com/news/early-voting-outpaces-2022-senate-battlegrounds-october-2026).\n\n## How we reported this\n\nWe opened each pollster's or sponsor's release for the figures above and note who paid for each poll. The Hart poll is reported only through the sponsor's summary. Early-vote figures are from The Nevada Independent's running count of state data; we did not independently tabulate the Secretary of State's files. Our [methodology page](https://567politics.com/methodology) explains how 567 Politics handles polls and forecasts.","textStyle":"body","layout":"text"}]}