{"version":"1.9","identifier":"3422032c-6dab-47f5-8556-30c4837ea3e2","language":"en-US","title":"Cooper leads Whatley by 10 to 14 points in final North Carolina Senate polls as Democrats lead the early vote","layout":{"columns":7,"width":1024,"margin":32,"gutter":20},"componentLayouts":{"text":{"columnStart":0,"columnSpan":7,"maximumContentWidth":720,"margin":{"top":12,"bottom":12}},"photo":{"columnStart":0,"columnSpan":7,"margin":{"top":20,"bottom":20}}},"componentTextStyles":{"default":{"fontName":"HelveticaNeue","fontSize":18,"lineHeight":29,"textColor":"#171717"},"headline":{"fontName":"HelveticaNeue-Bold","fontSize":36,"lineHeight":42,"conditional":[{"conditions":{"maxViewportWidth":480},"fontSize":28,"lineHeight":34}]},"intro":{"fontName":"HelveticaNeue","fontSize":20,"lineHeight":28,"textColor":"#555555"},"caption":{"fontName":"HelveticaNeue","fontSize":13,"lineHeight":19,"textColor":"#666666"},"byline":{"fontName":"HelveticaNeue","fontSize":13,"lineHeight":20,"textColor":"#666666"},"body":{"fontName":"HelveticaNeue","fontSize":18,"lineHeight":29,"paragraphSpacingAfter":14,"linkStyle":{"textColor":"#00704a"}}},"metadata":{"canonicalURL":"https://567politics.com/news/north-carolina-senate-cooper-whatley-final-weekend-november-2026","datePublished":"2026-11-01T16:25:55.480456Z","dateModified":"2026-11-01T16:26:25.907343Z","authors":["567 Politics staff"],"excerpt":"Whatley's campaign says the race will tighten, and analysts note Republicans have more registered voters left to cast ballots on Tuesday.","thumbnailURL":"https://pub-fac99da959e344fe99d810d309cef7df.r2.dev/photos/article/3422032c-6dab-47f5-8556-30c4837ea3e2/64cf116d2ea5fefe2727b45f362cef2c.jpg","keywords":["elections"],"generatorName":"Frog News","generatorVersion":"1.0"},"components":[{"role":"title","text":"Cooper leads Whatley by 10 to 14 points in final North Carolina Senate polls as Democrats lead the early vote","textStyle":"headline","layout":"text"},{"role":"intro","text":"Whatley's campaign says the race will tighten, and analysts note Republicans have more registered voters left to cast ballots on Tuesday.","textStyle":"intro","layout":"text"},{"role":"byline","text":"By 567 Politics staff · Published November 1, 2026","textStyle":"byline","layout":"text"},{"role":"photo","URL":"https://pub-fac99da959e344fe99d810d309cef7df.r2.dev/photos/article/3422032c-6dab-47f5-8556-30c4837ea3e2/64cf116d2ea5fefe2727b45f362cef2c.jpg","caption":"Michael Whatley, then a former Republican National Committee chairman, speaks at AmericaFest in Phoenix in December 2025. He faces Democrat Roy Cooper for North Carolina's open U.S. Senate seat. · Gage Skidmore, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons","accessibilityCaption":"Michael Whatley, then a former Republican National Committee chairman, speaks at AmericaFest in Phoenix in December 2025. He faces Democrat Roy Cooper for North Carolina's open U.S. Senate seat.","layout":"photo"},{"role":"caption","text":"Michael Whatley, then a former Republican National Committee chairman, speaks at AmericaFest in Phoenix in December 2025. He faces Democrat Roy Cooper for North Carolina's open U.S. Senate seat. · Gage Skidmore, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons","textStyle":"caption","layout":"text"},{"role":"body","format":"markdown","text":"North Carolina's open U.S. Senate race enters its final weekend with Democrat Roy Cooper ahead of Republican Michael Whatley in four recent public polls, by margins of 10 to 14 points. Democrats have also cast far more early ballots than they did at this point in 2022. Whatley's campaign says the race will tighten, and analysts note that Republicans still have more registered voters left to vote. Election Day is Tuesday, November 3.\n\nThe seat is open because Republican Sen. Thom Tillis is not seeking reelection, [WRAL reported](https://www.wral.com/news/nccapitol/cooper-whatley-make-final-appeals-before-end-of-early-voting-friday-october-2026/). Green Party candidate Michael Dublin and Libertarian Shannon Bray are also on the ballot. Cooper is a two-term former governor. Whatley is a former chairman of the Republican National Committee and the state Republican Party. Our [North Carolina Senate race page](https://567politics.com/races/north-carolina-senate-2026) tracks the contest, and our profiles cover [Roy Cooper](https://567politics.com/politicians/roy-cooper) and [Thom Tillis](https://567politics.com/politicians/thom-tillis).\n\n## What the final polls show\n\nFour recent polls found Cooper ahead. They used different methods and were taken at different times, so their margins should not be averaged as if they were one measurement. At least two of the four are online opt-in panel surveys, which do not use random samples.\n\n**High Point University/YouGov.** This poll, released October 28, found Cooper ahead 54% to 40% among likely voters, according to the [university's release](https://www.highpoint.edu/blog/2026/10/hpu-yougov-poll-north-carolina-likely-voters-weigh-in-on-u-s-senate-race-and-more/). Bray had 2%, Dublin 1%, and 4% were unsure or would not vote. The question read: \"If the elections for U.S. Senator were being held today, who would you vote for?\" Candidates were listed in ballot order.\n\nThe survey was fielded online from October 1 to 20 by the HPU Survey Research Center with YouGov. YouGov interviewed 1,046 registered voters and matched them down to a sample of 800. Of these, 620 were classed as likely voters using a six-question index. The release says a classic margin of sampling error does not apply to an opt-in panel. It gives a credibility interval of plus or minus 4.7 points for likely voters. Results were weighted on demographics and 2024 presidential vote. Most of the field period came well before the last week of the campaign.\n\n**Elon University.** Elon's final poll, released October 20, found Cooper ahead 52% to 39% among likely voters, with 6% undecided and 3% backing Bray, Dublin or someone else, according to [Elon's release](https://www.elon.edu/u/news/2026/10/20/final-elon-university-poll-before-election-day-cooper-has-double-digit-lead-over-whatley-in-nc-us-senate-race/). When undecided voters were pressed to choose, Cooper's lead shrank to 54% to 43%. YouGov fielded the survey online from September 29 to October 8. It interviewed 1,038 adults and matched them down to 800. The margin of error for likely voters is plus or minus 4.9 points. The release does not give the number of likely voters. Elon says the poll is fully funded by the university.\n\nJason Husser, the poll's director, pointed to three signs that Cooper's lead could shrink. Pressed undecided voters leaned slightly toward Whatley, because more of them had voted for Trump in 2024. Whatley voters still expected him to win. And Cooper's lead among all registered voters was smaller than among likely voters. That, Husser said, implies an \"opportunity for Republicans if they can motivate more of their base to turn out.\"\n\n**Carolina Journal/Harper Polling.** This poll found Cooper ahead 49.4% to 39.1%, with Bray at 2.9%, Dublin at 1.9% and 6.8% undecided, according to [Carolina Journal](https://www.carolinajournal.com/polls/october-2026-coopers-lead-over-whatley-narrows-to-10-points-in-nc-senate-race/). Carolina Journal is published by the John Locke Foundation. Harper Polling surveyed 600 likely voters from October 18 to 20, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 points, the [poll story](https://www.carolinajournal.com/cj-poll-cooper-leads-whatley-by-10-as-republicans-return-to-whatley/) says. Neither article states the interview method or the exact question wording, so we could not verify those details.\n\nThe poll shows Cooper's lead shrinking from 15 points in September. Whatley's support among Republicans rose from 74% to 83%. Fifteen percent of respondents said they had already voted. \"While Whatley's gains in both ballot support and name recognition are noteworthy, Cooper continues to maintain a substantial lead,\" said Donna King, the publisher.\n\n**WRAL/WSOC (SurveyUSA).** SurveyUSA's poll for WRAL and WSOC-TV found Cooper ahead 54% to 40%, with 5% undecided and 1% for another candidate, [WRAL reported](https://www.wral.com/news/nccapitol/wral-nc-us-senate-poll-cooper-whatley-tillis-trump-stein-approval-midterm-october-2026/). It sampled 900 North Carolinians from October 7 to 11. Of those, 643 had already voted by mail or said they were likely to vote. WRAL reported a credibility interval of 5 points. The WRAL story does not describe the interview method or the question wording, and we did not open SurveyUSA's full report. This poll is the oldest of the four.\n\nAll four polls are snapshots taken days or weeks before Election Day. Our [methodology page](https://567politics.com/methodology) explains how 567 Politics reports polls and why opt-in panels need extra care.\n\n## A record early vote, led by Democrats\n\nNorth Carolina's in-person early voting period ended at 3 p.m. Saturday, October 31, [WLOS reported](https://wlos.com/news/local/north-carolina-early-voting-ends-2026-election-turnout-2-million-ballots). The latest State Board of Elections report we opened covers ballots cast through October 30. It shows 2,612,249 ballots cast, including 2,524,619 in person and the rest by mail, according to the [daily statistics report](https://wlos.com/resources/pdf/e9fa888e-f047-4ffb-95f8-1d330fbae981-20261031DailyAbsenteeStatsReport2026General.pdf). That equals 33.09% of 7,894,774 eligible voters. At the same point in 2022, 1,975,607 ballots had been accepted. We did not have final figures that include Saturday.\n\nRegistered Democrats cast 1,010,362 of those ballots, or 38.7%. Registered Republicans cast 679,769, or 26.0%. Unaffiliated voters cast 914,377, or 35.0%. In each group's own terms, 43.1% of registered Democrats had voted, compared with 29.2% of registered Republicans and 28.8% of unaffiliated voters. These figures show who has voted, not how they voted. Our national report on [early voting in Senate battlegrounds](https://567politics.com/news/early-voting-outpaces-2022-senate-battlegrounds-october-2026) has more context.\n\nAnalysts caution that the early lead does not settle the race. Republicans have a deeper pool of reliable voters who could still show up, said Mike Rusher, a public affairs consultant and data analyst, [WRAL reported](https://www.wral.com/news/nccapitol/north-carolina-democrats-polls-early-voting-turnout-midterms-october-28/). In 2022, 58.8% of registered Republicans voted, compared with 51.5% of registered Democrats. Republicans also tend to turn out strongly on Election Day.\n\nOn Tuesday, polls are open from 6:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m., and anyone in line at closing may vote, WLOS reported. Voters are asked to show photo ID. Those who cannot may vote by completing an ID exception form. Same-day registration is not available on Election Day.\n\n## The final week on the trail\n\nCooper rallied in Smithfield on Friday, October 30, while Whatley held an event in Lumberton in Robeson County, WRAL reported. It was Whatley's second trip to the county in a week. He had earlier appeared there with Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin, who praised Whatley's role in the Lumbee Tribe's federal recognition. Trump signed that law last year.\n\nEarlier in the week, both candidates campaigned in the Charlotte area, [WCNC reported](https://www.wcnc.com/article/news/politics/north-carolina-politics/cooper-whatley-make-final-charlotte-area-push-for-nc-senate-seat-one-week-before-election-day/275-017756f8-ed65-457a-a5c3-cdcd1975a3b1). Cooper spoke at a church in uptown Charlotte on his \"Make Stuff Cost Less\" tour. Whatley held a rally in Huntersville and campaigned in Gastonia. He also held a rally in Greensboro, [WFDD reported](https://www.wfdd.org/politics-government/2026-10-28/whatley-stops-in-guilford-rockingham-counties-in-final-campaign-push).\n\nVice President JD Vance joined Whatley at a rally in Kinston on Wednesday, October 28, [ABC11 reported](https://abc11.com/post/nc-midterm-election-2026-vice-president-vance-joins-michael-whatley-campaign-event-kinston-encourages-early-voting/19992327/). Cooper campaigned in Durham the same day. President Donald Trump campaigned with Whatley in Greenville the week before.\n\nTrump's remarks there drew notice. \"He's going to become your senator, and it's crazy,\" Trump said of Cooper, WRAL reported. Trump later said he would like Whatley to win, but added, \"What are you going to do?\" Whatley responded that North Carolina Senate races tend to tighten near Election Day. He said the final result will be closer than polls show.\n\n## The case each side is making\n\n**For Whatley.** Whatley argues the election is a choice between Trump's agenda and a return to Democratic policies. \"We're at an inflection point as a country,\" he told WRAL. He said voters could \"continue to build a strong economy, secure borders and safe communities,\" or \"go back to the same failed policies\" of the Biden administration and Cooper's time as governor. He has criticized Cooper's record on crime and immigration, WFDD reported. Campaigning in the Charlotte area, he backed ending taxes on tips, overtime and Social Security, WCNC reported. \"I'm going to make sure that people make more and keep more of their own money,\" he said.\n\nVance made a similar pitch in Kinston. He accused Cooper of working for \"far-left activists.\" \"I don't want the government to be my nanny,\" Vance said. He urged Republicans to vote early, since Democrats led the early vote.\n\nWhatley's allies point to his record as a party organizer. Under his leadership of the state party, Republicans carried North Carolina for Trump in 2020 and won the 2022 Senate race, WRAL reported. Campaign spokesman Jonathan Felts said Whatley visited all 100 counties. \"We wanted to be, and are, organized and doing grassroots outreach everywhere,\" he said. Earlier, spokesman DJ Griffin said the campaign was \"confident this race will continue to tighten.\"\n\n**For Cooper.** Cooper argues that he would act as a check on Trump and focus on costs. \"If Congress just takes back its constitutional authority, we can roll back those tariffs,\" he said in Smithfield. \"We need to find a way to end this war in Iran.\" He also cast himself as independent of party. \"I will put the people before politics, before party, before power,\" he said. He has called Whatley a rubber stamp for Trump. Whatley's campaign website lists his top priority as enacting the Trump agenda in the Senate, WRAL reported.\n\nCooper's campaign has run an ad featuring former President Barack Obama. In it, Obama says Cooper \"took on insurance companies that ripped you off\" as attorney general. Cooper also warned against reading too much into early voting. \"Republicans tend to show up later in the process than on Election Day, so we can take nothing for granted,\" he said in Charlotte.\n\nTillis has also criticized Whatley's path. In a new book, Tillis wrote that he told Trump that advice the president took on health care policy would \"harm North Carolina and kill Whatley's chances,\" WRAL reported. Tillis voted against the 2025 tax and spending law, which WRAL reported cut Medicaid by more than $1 trillion. Whatley supports the law and has criticized Cooper for saying he would have voted against it.\n\n## Money and outside spending\n\nCooper entered October with $12.5 million in cash, compared with $916,000 for Whatley, WRAL reported. Whatley's campaign then suspended its television ads, and major Republican groups moved money to more competitive Senate races.\n\nWe checked Federal Election Commission summaries on November 1. They cover the 2026 cycle through October 14.\n\n* [Cooper's committee](https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/S6NC00407/?cycle=2026) reported $49.6 million in receipts. That included $18.0 million given directly by individuals and $28.3 million transferred from other authorized committees. It reported $9.1 million in cash on hand.\n* [Whatley's committee](https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/S6NC00415/?cycle=2026) reported $13.7 million in receipts. That included $7.3 million from individuals, $5.1 million in transfers and $1.0 million from other political committees. It reported $0.9 million in cash on hand.\n\nThese are candidate-committee figures. They exclude outside spending and later 48-hour reports. The 567 Politics funding tool has no verified FEC snapshot for Cooper's profile yet, and Whatley has no profile on the site. We have not reviewed outside groups' filings for this article. A contribution does not show that a donor shaped a candidate's views.\n\n## How Democrats and Republicans read the numbers\n\nDemocratic officials say they are not trusting the polls. \"Momentum doesn't knock on doors,\" Democratic National Committee chair Ken Martin told WRAL. \"There's no guarantee.\" State party chair Anderson Clayton said polls have shown Democrats ahead before. WRAL noted that polls showed Democrat Cal Cunningham slightly ahead in 2020 before he lost to Tillis by about 1 point. Cooper's campaign manager, Jeff Allen, called North Carolina \"a 50-50 state.\"\n\nRepublicans argue their voters prefer Election Day. \"I know we are the traditionalists,\" said Laurie Buckhout, a Republican House candidate, at the Kinston rally. She still urged supporters to vote early. \"Bank your vote,\" she said.\n\nIf Cooper wins, he would be the first Democrat to win a U.S. Senate race in North Carolina since Kay Hagan in 2008, WCNC reported. Republicans hold 53 of the 100 Senate seats, so Democrats need a net gain of four to win control, WRAL reported. Our report on [national generic-ballot polls](https://567politics.com/news/midterm-generic-ballot-marist-ipsos-polls-october-2026) covers the wider picture.","textStyle":"body","layout":"text"}]}