{"version":"1.9","identifier":"6acf1110-8dd2-4983-9f20-00d3b392d460","language":"en-US","title":"Final Siena poll has Sherrod Brown up 5 on Sen. Jon Husted in Ohio; InsiderAdvantage finds a 2-point race","layout":{"columns":7,"width":1024,"margin":32,"gutter":20},"componentLayouts":{"text":{"columnStart":0,"columnSpan":7,"maximumContentWidth":720,"margin":{"top":12,"bottom":12}},"photo":{"columnStart":0,"columnSpan":7,"margin":{"top":20,"bottom":20}}},"componentTextStyles":{"default":{"fontName":"HelveticaNeue","fontSize":18,"lineHeight":29,"textColor":"#171717"},"headline":{"fontName":"HelveticaNeue-Bold","fontSize":36,"lineHeight":42,"conditional":[{"conditions":{"maxViewportWidth":480},"fontSize":28,"lineHeight":34}]},"intro":{"fontName":"HelveticaNeue","fontSize":20,"lineHeight":28,"textColor":"#555555"},"caption":{"fontName":"HelveticaNeue","fontSize":13,"lineHeight":19,"textColor":"#666666"},"byline":{"fontName":"HelveticaNeue","fontSize":13,"lineHeight":20,"textColor":"#666666"},"body":{"fontName":"HelveticaNeue","fontSize":18,"lineHeight":29,"paragraphSpacingAfter":14,"linkStyle":{"textColor":"#00704a"}}},"metadata":{"canonicalURL":"https://567politics.com/news/ohio-senate-brown-husted-final-siena-poll-november-2026","datePublished":"2026-11-02T12:24:51.692572Z","dateModified":"2026-11-02T18:54:54.443727Z","authors":["567 Politics staff"],"excerpt":"Brown leads 49% to 44% in the last NYT/Siena survey, while other final polls show Husted within the margin of error as both men close on the cost of living.","thumbnailURL":"https://pub-fac99da959e344fe99d810d309cef7df.r2.dev/photos/article/6acf1110-8dd2-4983-9f20-00d3b392d460/8996606f7d1f7bcc1520ea7ffba87d8b.jpg","keywords":["elections"],"generatorName":"Frog News","generatorVersion":"1.0"},"components":[{"role":"title","text":"Final Siena poll has Sherrod Brown up 5 on Sen. Jon Husted in Ohio; InsiderAdvantage finds a 2-point race","textStyle":"headline","layout":"text"},{"role":"intro","text":"Brown leads 49% to 44% in the last NYT/Siena survey, while other final polls show Husted within the margin of error as both men close on the cost of living.","textStyle":"intro","layout":"text"},{"role":"byline","text":"By 567 Politics staff · Published November 2, 2026","textStyle":"byline","layout":"text"},{"role":"photo","URL":"https://pub-fac99da959e344fe99d810d309cef7df.r2.dev/photos/article/6acf1110-8dd2-4983-9f20-00d3b392d460/8996606f7d1f7bcc1520ea7ffba87d8b.jpg","caption":"The Ohio Statehouse in Columbus. Photo: puroticorico via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 2.0. · puroticorico via Wikimedia Commons (CC BY 2.0)","accessibilityCaption":"The Ohio Statehouse in Columbus. Photo: puroticorico via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 2.0.","layout":"photo"},{"role":"caption","text":"The Ohio Statehouse in Columbus. Photo: puroticorico via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 2.0. · puroticorico via Wikimedia Commons (CC BY 2.0)","textStyle":"caption","layout":"text"},{"role":"body","format":"markdown","text":"Democrat Sherrod Brown led Republican Sen. Jon Husted 49% to 44% among likely Ohio voters in the final New York Times/Siena poll of the state, released Sunday, November 1. Other final polls released the same day found a closer race. An InsiderAdvantage survey had Brown ahead 49% to 47%. Brown, who lost his Senate seat in 2024, is trying to return to the chamber. Husted was appointed to the Senate in 2025 to fill the seat left by Vice President JD Vance. Voters go to the polls on Tuesday, November 3.\n\nDon Levy, executive director of the Siena Research Institute, summed up the results in the [poll release](https://sri.siena.edu/2026/11/01/nytimes-siena-poll-of-likely-voters-alaska-iowa-kansas-maine-michigan-ohio-and-texas/). \"Our final U.S. Senate polls show Democrats with leads of 5 to 11 points in Kansas (5), Ohio (5), Maine (6), Texas (7), and Michigan (11),\" he said. He also cautioned that \"with so many races within the poll's total margin of error, a Senate majority for either party remains possible.\" He added: \"Now, it's time for all votes to be cast and the counts to speak louder than the polls.\" Our race page tracks the [Ohio Senate contest](https://567politics.com/races/ohio-senate-2026), and our profile of [Jon Husted](https://567politics.com/politicians/jon-husted) lists his record in office.\n\n## How the polls were done\n\n**NYT/Siena.** The Siena Research Institute conducted the poll for The New York Times among likely Ohio voters. Siena gives the margin of sampling error in Ohio as plus or minus 4.4 points, including a design effect of 1.33. The design effect accounts for the loss of precision that comes from weighting the sample. The 270toWin poll tracker lists [717 likely voters](https://www.270towin.com/2026-senate-polls/ohio) for this survey, with a margin of 4.2 points. We use Siena's larger figure. We were not able to open The Times's published toplines, so we have not verified the exact field dates, the question wording, the interview method or the weighting targets.\n\n**InsiderAdvantage.** The [InsiderAdvantage survey](https://insideradvantage.com/final-insideradvantage-ohio-survey-brown-49-husted-47-acton-49-ramaswamy-46/) was conducted October 29 and 30 among 1,200 likely voters. It used a mixed text and panel method and was weighted for age, race, gender and political affiliation. The margin of error was plus or minus 2.83 points. The release did not name a sponsor. Brown had 49%, Husted 47%, other candidates 3%, and 1% were undecided. We have not reviewed the question wording, which the firm said it would post on X.\n\nThe two polls used different methods and should not be averaged as if they were one measurement. Our [methodology page](https://567politics.com/methodology) explains how 567 Politics reports polls.\n\n## A close race in the final polls\n\nBrown led in both final polls, but by different margins. In the Siena poll, Brown's five-point lead is about the size of the margin of error on each candidate's share. In the InsiderAdvantage poll, Husted is within the margin of error.\n\nThe 270toWin tracker lists several other final-week surveys. A YouGov poll of 2,090 likely voters, released November 1, had Brown ahead 50% to 48%. A ResearchCo poll of 450 likely voters had Brown ahead 49% to 48%. An ActiVote survey of 400 likely voters, released October 31, had the race tied at 50%. We have not reviewed the methods of these surveys. The tracker's average of six recent polls was 49.0% for Brown and 47.3% for Husted.\n\n**Final Ohio Senate polls of likely voters, Oct. 31 to Nov. 1, 2026**\n\nPercent of likely voters, by release date listed by 270toWin. Other candidates and undecided voters are not shown. The polls used different methods and are not averaged here.","textStyle":"body","layout":"text"},{"role":"htmltable","html":"<table><tr><th>Poll (release date)</th><th>Brown</th><th>Husted</th></tr><tr><td>ActiVote (Oct. 31)</td><td>50%</td><td>50%</td></tr><tr><td>NYT/Siena (Nov. 1)</td><td>49%</td><td>44%</td></tr><tr><td>InsiderAdvantage (Nov. 1)</td><td>49%</td><td>47%</td></tr><tr><td>YouGov (Nov. 1)</td><td>50%</td><td>48%</td></tr><tr><td>ResearchCo (Nov. 1)</td><td>49%</td><td>48%</td></tr></table>","layout":"text"},{"role":"body","format":"markdown","text":"Source: [270toWin Ohio Senate polls](https://www.270towin.com/2026-senate-polls/ohio), [Siena Research Institute release](https://sri.siena.edu/2026/11/01/nytimes-siena-poll-of-likely-voters-alaska-iowa-kansas-maine-michigan-ohio-and-texas/)\n\nInsiderAdvantage pollster Matt Towery was skeptical of a Democratic win. \"Ohio is not a battleground state in the true sense of the phrase, and has recently had a pattern of turning hugely Republican on Election Day,\" he wrote. \"There is a reasonable chance that Husted, who has been rising in the polls, could actually defeat Brown.\"\n\nOhio's race for governor is on the same ballot. The Siena poll had Democrat Amy Acton ahead of Republican Vivek Ramaswamy 49% to 43%, and InsiderAdvantage had Acton ahead 49% to 46%. Levy called it \"the much-watched race in Ohio\" and noted that \"Acton leads Ramaswamy by six points.\" Our earlier report on [the Ohio governor's race](https://567politics.com/news/ohio-governor-ramaswamy-pulls-acton-mother-ad-polls-october-2026) and our [governor's race page](https://567politics.com/races/ohio-governor-2026) cover that contest.\n\n## Who the candidates are\n\nBrown was first elected to the Ohio House in 1975, at age 22, [WSYX reported](https://abc6onyourside.com/news/election/fact-check-how-truthful-sherrod-brown-jon-husted-campaign-ads-politics-political-midterm-midterms-senate-senator-race-contest-republican-gop-democrat-ohio). He later served in the Ohio Senate and as secretary of state. He was elected to Congress in 1993 and to the U.S. Senate in 2006. He lost the seat to Republican Bernie Moreno in 2024, [WKYC reported](https://www.wkyc.com/article/news/politics/elections/jon-husted-sherrod-brown-2026-midterm-elections-election-day-early-voting-final-pitches-ohio-voters-senate-race-donald-trump-jd-vance/95-c8b2bee6-0e7a-46ad-838d-11b05395fc02).\n\nHusted has been in politics for 25 years, WSYX reported. He was speaker of the Ohio House from 2005 to 2009, served in the Ohio Senate and spent eight years as secretary of state. He was lieutenant governor from 2019 until Gov. Mike DeWine appointed him to the Senate in 2025.\n\n## The case each side is making\n\nBoth candidates have made the cost of living their main issue, [WTOL reported](https://www.wtol.com/article/news/politics/elections/ohio-us-senate-candidates-making-final-pitches-as-election-day-nears-jon-husted-sherrod-brown/512-4e447c3b-e9da-4828-afd7-13bd10292e51). They disagree about the causes and the solutions.\n\n**For Husted.** Husted argues that tax cuts and more supply will bring prices down. \"We need to create more supply to meet demand so we can lower prices,\" he told WTOL. He pointed to a law that he said \"cut taxes on tips, overtime and Social Security\" and \"gave every family with children a $2200 per child tax credit,\" WKYC reported. He also says Brown has had a long career with little to show for it. \"Sherrod Brown's been in office for over 50 years, over 50 years, and he's done nothing to make people's lives better,\" Husted said.\n\nHusted says data centers are \"a local decision.\" He said he passed a bill in the House, the Ratepayer Protection Act, that \"would require data centers to pay their own way,\" but that Democrats blocked it. On Tuesday he plans to appear with Vance at Toledo Express Airport, WTOL reported.\n\nRepublican ads have attacked Brown's record. A National Republican Senatorial Committee ad says Brown \"supported the Biden-Harris agenda and inflation skyrocketed.\" WSYX found that Brown backed President Joe Biden's positions 98% of the time over four years, according to CQ Roll Call. It also said the ad leaves out pandemic-era factors. WSYX called the ad's claim that prices rose faster than paychecks during Brown's career \"misleading and unsupported.\"\n\n**For Brown.** Brown argues that corporations and special interests are driving up prices and that Husted has served them. \"Jon Husted was a special interest guy in Columbus. He was in the pocket of FirstEnergy and the banks. Now he's a special interest guy in Washington,\" he told WKYC. He said he would work to lower the cost of health care, groceries, gas, diesel and fertilizer. He cited his work on the Social Security Fairness Act and the PACT Act for veterans exposed to burn pits.\n\nOn data centers, Brown said communities should have a say before they are built. He also called for a cap so that \"Ohioans shouldn't pay the cost, the increased cost of electricity because of the data centers.\" He plans to campaign with Acton in Columbus on Tuesday.\n\n## The FirstEnergy ads\n\nMuch of the Democratic advertising has focused on House Bill 6, the 2019 nuclear power bailout at the center of a bribery scandal. [FactCheck.org found](https://www.factcheck.org/2026/09/ohio-democratic-ads-connect-husted-to-bribery-scandal-despite-no-charges-of-wrongdoing/) that Husted backed the bill and that FirstEnergy money of about $3.5 million helped his campaigns through outside groups. It also found that Husted \"hasn't been charged with or accused of any wrongdoing in the scandal.\" The site said the ads' framing may leave voters with the wrong impression that he has. Former Ohio House Speaker Larry Householder received a 20-year federal prison sentence in 2023 for leading the bribery scheme.\n\nA Husted campaign spokesperson, Amy Natoce, told FactCheck.org that Husted \"was focused on diversifying our energy base and saving Ohio's nuclear power plants to keep costs low and grow the economy.\" She called the ad \"baseless lies.\" Experts quoted by FactCheck.org said higher electricity bills in Ohio cannot be blamed entirely on the law, pointing to demand from data centers and other factors.\n\n## Money in the race\n\nWe checked Federal Election Commission summaries on November 2 for the 2026 cycle.\n\n* [Brown's campaign](https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/S6OH00163/?cycle=2026) reported $68.4 million in receipts through October 14. That included $57.9 million from individuals, $1.1 million from other political committees and $9.2 million in transfers from other authorized committees. It reported $4.5 million in cash on hand.\n* [Husted's campaign](https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/S6OH00304/?cycle=2026) reported $19.9 million in receipts through October 22. That included $9.8 million from individuals, $2.7 million from other political committees and $7.2 million in transfers. It reported $4.2 million in cash on hand.\n\nThe two campaigns' reports cover different end dates, so the totals are not directly comparable. The 567 Politics funding snapshot for Husted, drawn from FEC data on November 1, lists contributions from 465 political committees totaling about $2.3 million. The largest single committee total was $11,200, from the Cardinal Health Companies PAC. The snapshot also lists outside spending in the race. The largest entries are $3.6 million from Americans for Prosperity Action supporting Husted and $1.0 million from the AFSCME Working Families Fund opposing him. Brown does not have a 567 Politics profile, so the site has no funding snapshot for him. The FEC campaign totals above cover candidate committees only and exclude outside spending and later filings. A contribution does not show that a donor shaped a candidate's positions.\n\n## What the polls cannot tell us\n\nBrown has led in most recent polls, but the leads are small, and he lost a statewide race in Ohio just two years ago. Turnout, late deciders and polling error could each change the result. A poll measures answers given during specific days and is not a forecast. For other final Siena results, see our reports on [Maine](https://567politics.com/news/maine-senate-jackson-collins-final-polls-november-2026) and [Iowa](https://567politics.com/news/iowa-senate-turek-hinson-final-siena-poll-sand-lahn-november-2026).","textStyle":"body","layout":"text"}]}