","layout":"text"},{"role":"body","format":"markdown","text":"**How these polls were done.** Research Co. surveyed voters online. Its margin of error is 4.6 points. Franklin & Marshall drew its sample from a voter list supplied by the data firm Aristotle and interviewed people by phone or online, as they preferred. Its margin of error is 4.1 points for all registered voters and 5.6 points for likely voters. Quinnipiac used live interviewers calling landlines and cellphones. Its margin of error is 3.9 points.\n\nResearch Co. reports decided voters only, so its two figures add to 99. Research Co. weights by age and gender using census figures. Franklin & Marshall weighted by age, gender, education, region, vote history and party registration. In the Quinnipiac poll, Libertarian Ken Krawchuk had 2% and 5% did not choose a candidate.\n\nIn the four House districts, the Times/Inquirer/Siena poll found Shapiro ahead 56% to 39%. That figure covers only those four districts, not the whole state.\n\nQuinnipiac found Shapiro viewed favorably by 55% of likely voters. Only 22% had a favorable view of Garrity, and many had no opinion of her. Franklin & Marshall found the same gap in name recognition: 42% of registered voters said they did not know enough about Garrity to have an opinion.\n\n### Closing pitches\n\nShapiro and Lt. Gov. Austin Davis ended a 10-day bus tour that began Oct. 24 in Erie. The [Northeast Times, citing WHYY](https://northeasttimes.com/2026/11/02/shapiro-garrity-closing-pitches-governor-race-final-days/), reported that the tour stopped in 29 counties. At a Doylestown rally for Harvie on Oct. 31, Shapiro said, \"I don't want a rubber stamp for Donald Trump. I want a check on Donald Trump.\"\n\nHe finished Monday in Montgomery County, where he lives. If Democrats win both chambers of the legislature, he said, his top goals would be raising the minimum wage, writing abortion rights into law and increasing money for mass transit. \"I'm fighting hard across this commonwealth to win that trifecta, so that we can do good for other people,\" he said, according to the Inquirer.\n\nShapiro has also faced questions about a possible 2028 run for president. When the subject came up at a Monday event, he said: \"All right, let's ease up here. My wife's here. I don't want her hearing that kind of stuff.\"\n\nGarrity campaigned in Altoona and at Penn State over the weekend on her \"Turn Around PA\" tour, with running mate Jason Richey. According to the Centre Daily Times, as summarized by the Northeast Times, she promoted a program for first-time homebuyers and a plan to cut electricity bills by 20%. She also backed a rule that students who cannot read by third grade would not move on to fourth grade. Asked about the minimum wage, she said: \"I'm open, absolutely open, to having a conversation about it, but my main focus is to grow the economy.\"\n\n## Mail ballots\n\nAs of the morning of Oct. 29, Pennsylvania had received 965,837 mail and absentee ballots out of more than 1.3 million requested, according to state figures reported by the Keystone Newsroom and the [Northeast Times](https://northeasttimes.com/2026/11/02/pennsylvania-mail-ballots-returned-when-election-results-2026/). That is a return rate above 70%.\n\nOf the returned ballots, 629,099 came from registered Democrats, 243,338 from Republicans and 93,400 from independent or third-party voters. These numbers show the party registration of voters who sent ballots back, not how they voted. Democrats in Pennsylvania have used mail voting far more than Republicans since 2020, so a Democratic lead in early returns is expected and does not predict the final result.\n\nPennsylvania does not let counties process mail ballots before Election Day. In Philadelphia, workers will begin opening them at 7 a.m. Tuesday and work around the clock until done. Unofficial results will appear on the state's [election returns site](https://www.electionreturns.pa.gov/) after polls close. Provisional ballots and military and overseas ballots are counted later.\n\n\"Carefully counting ballots takes time, and county elections officials rightly prioritize accuracy over speed,\" Secretary of the Commonwealth Al Schmidt said in a statement, asking voters \"to be patient as the process unfolds.\"\n\nThe Justice Department has said it will send election monitors to Philadelphia polling places. We explained the limits on what federal monitors can do in [our story on DOJ election monitors](https://567politics.com/news/doj-election-monitors-midterms-state-limits-november-2026).\n\n## Money in the 1st District\n\nFitzpatrick's campaign committee had raised about $8.0 million in the 2025-26 cycle through Oct. 14, according to [Federal Election Commission totals](https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6PA08277/?cycle=2026) we retrieved Monday. It had spent about $11.7 million, more than it raised this cycle, and had about $709,000 in cash on hand. About $2.7 million of its receipts came from other political committees, including PACs.\n\nAmong the PAC gifts in FEC records, the Transport Workers Union's political committee gave $15,000 across three contributions. The Air Line Pilots Association PAC gave $10,000. These are campaign contributions, not proof of influence over any vote.\n\nHarvie's campaign had raised about $3.2 million and spent about $2.8 million, with about $409,000 on hand, according to [his FEC filings](https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6PA01181/?cycle=2026). These totals do not include spending by party committees or outside groups, which has been heavy in this race.\n\n## Differing perspectives\n\nThe candidates for governor offer different plans for the cost of living. Shapiro points to a higher minimum wage, abortion rights and new housing. Garrity points to more natural gas production, lower utility bills and property tax cuts. The perspectives section below sets out each campaign's case in its own words.\n\n## The wider picture\n\nBoth parties' House campaign committees have treated Pennsylvania's four districts as central to the fight for the majority. Polls nationally have moved toward Democrats in the final weeks, as we reported in [our roundup of the final national polls](https://567politics.com/news/final-national-polls-generic-ballot-nbc-emerson-trump-approval-november-2026). Early voting has also run ahead of 2022 in several states, as we found in [our early-vote analysis](https://567politics.com/news/early-voting-outpaces-2022-senate-battlegrounds-october-2026).\n\nResults for each race will appear on our race pages for the [governor's race](https://567politics.com/races/pennsylvania-governor-2026) and the House districts linked above. Profiles of [Josh Shapiro](https://567politics.com/politicians/josh-shapiro) and each incumbent are also linked above.\n\n## How we reported this\n\nWe read the Franklin & Marshall, Quinnipiac and Research Co. releases ourselves. The Times/Inquirer/Siena district results and methods are from PoliticsPA, because the Times results page blocked our access. Quotes from Monday's events are from the Inquirer. Weekend campaign details are from the Northeast Times, which credits WHYY, the Centre Daily Times and WPSU. Mail-ballot figures are state data as of Oct. 29, as reported by the Keystone Newsroom. Fundraising figures come from the FEC's public API and cover each candidate's main campaign committee. Some poll figures have been reported differently elsewhere. For example, one widely shared table lists Franklin & Marshall's registered-voter result, 52% to 30%, rather than its likely-voter result. We used likely-voter results where the pollster released them. See [our methodology](https://567politics.com/methodology) for how we handle polls.","textStyle":"body","layout":"text"}]}