{"version":"1.9","identifier":"312673d3-d854-4677-bde5-840199103339","language":"en-US","title":"Turkey's Annual Inflation Edges Up to 29.77% in October, First Rise After Four Months of Decline","layout":{"columns":7,"width":1024,"margin":32,"gutter":20},"componentLayouts":{"text":{"columnStart":0,"columnSpan":7,"maximumContentWidth":720,"margin":{"top":12,"bottom":12}},"photo":{"columnStart":0,"columnSpan":7,"margin":{"top":20,"bottom":20}}},"componentTextStyles":{"default":{"fontName":"HelveticaNeue","fontSize":18,"lineHeight":29,"textColor":"#171717"},"headline":{"fontName":"HelveticaNeue-Bold","fontSize":36,"lineHeight":42,"conditional":[{"conditions":{"maxViewportWidth":480},"fontSize":28,"lineHeight":34}]},"intro":{"fontName":"HelveticaNeue","fontSize":20,"lineHeight":28,"textColor":"#555555"},"caption":{"fontName":"HelveticaNeue","fontSize":13,"lineHeight":19,"textColor":"#666666"},"byline":{"fontName":"HelveticaNeue","fontSize":13,"lineHeight":20,"textColor":"#666666"},"body":{"fontName":"HelveticaNeue","fontSize":18,"lineHeight":29,"paragraphSpacingAfter":14,"linkStyle":{"textColor":"#00704a"}}},"metadata":{"canonicalURL":"https://567politics.com/news/turkey-october-inflation-29-77-tuik-enag-simsek-november-2026","datePublished":"2026-11-03T14:21:46.149504Z","dateModified":"2026-11-03T14:23:23.858871Z","authors":["567politics staff"],"excerpt":"Consumer prices rose 2.58% in the month, above forecasts. Finance Minister Şimşek pointed to war-driven energy costs; opposition parties said the official rate understates the cost of living.","thumbnailURL":"https://pub-fac99da959e344fe99d810d309cef7df.r2.dev/photos/article/312673d3-d854-4677-bde5-840199103339/caa5872850663845687bdfca1744328c.jpg","keywords":["tr"],"generatorName":"Frog News","generatorVersion":"1.0"},"components":[{"role":"title","text":"Turkey's Annual Inflation Edges Up to 29.77% in October, First Rise After Four Months of Decline","textStyle":"headline","layout":"text"},{"role":"intro","text":"Consumer prices rose 2.58% in the month, above forecasts. Finance Minister Şimşek pointed to war-driven energy costs; opposition parties said the official rate understates the cost of living.","textStyle":"intro","layout":"text"},{"role":"byline","text":"By 567politics staff · Published November 3, 2026","textStyle":"byline","layout":"text"},{"role":"photo","URL":"https://pub-fac99da959e344fe99d810d309cef7df.r2.dev/photos/article/312673d3-d854-4677-bde5-840199103339/caa5872850663845687bdfca1744328c.jpg","caption":"The headquarters of the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK) in Ankara, in 2023. TÜİK publishes Turkey's official inflation figures. · Modern primat / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/)","accessibilityCaption":"The headquarters of the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK) in Ankara, in 2023. TÜİK publishes Turkey's official inflation figures.","layout":"photo"},{"role":"caption","text":"The headquarters of the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK) in Ankara, in 2023. TÜİK publishes Turkey's official inflation figures. · Modern primat / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/)","textStyle":"caption","layout":"text"},{"role":"body","format":"markdown","text":"Turkey's annual consumer inflation rate rose slightly in October to 29.77 percent, from 29.73 percent in September, the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK) said on Tuesday, November 3. It was the first rise in the annual rate after four months of decline. Prices rose 2.58 percent from September, faster than the 2.20 percent that economists had expected on average. Food, housing and transport drove most of the increase.\n\nFinance Minister Mehmet Şimşek said annual inflation was still 3.1 points lower than a year earlier. He blamed energy prices tied to the war in the region for slowing progress. Opposition parties said the official figure understates the cost of living. The Inflation Research Group (ENAG), an independent group of economists whose figures the government does not recognize, put annual inflation at 45.12 percent for the same month.\n\nThis report sets out what TÜİK published, how the figures compare with forecasts and with the central bank's target, and how the government and opposition parties responded.\n\n## What TÜİK reported\n\nThe consumer price index (CPI) rose 2.58 percent in October from the month before, [TÜİK's bulletin page showed](https://www.tuik.gov.tr/Home/HaberBultenleriPartial). The annual rate was 29.77 percent. Prices were up 27.52 percent from December 2025. The 12-month average rate, which smooths out monthly swings, was 31.23 percent.\n\nFood and non-alcoholic drinks rose 27.73 percent from a year earlier, [Anadolu Agency reported](https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/ekonomi/enflasyon-rakamlari-aciklandi/4109355). Because food has a large weight in the basket, it added 6.81 percentage points to the annual rate. Transport rose 36.39 percent and added 6.10 points. Housing rose 40.24 percent and added 4.71 points.\n\nSome smaller groups rose faster. Education costs were up 48.86 percent from a year earlier, and health costs were up 43.29 percent, [Haber3 reported from the bulletin](https://www.haber3.com/ekonomi/tuik-ekim-ayi-enflasyon-rakamlarini-acikladi-tufe-tillik-2977-ufe-2741-oldu-haberi-6268451). Clothing and footwear prices rose 12.58 percent in the month alone, the largest monthly rise of any group. In the month, food prices rose 3.50 percent and housing costs rose 2.84 percent.\n\nOf the 174 subgroups in the index, prices rose in 134, fell in 29 and did not change in 11, Anadolu reported.\n\nCore measures, which strip out the most volatile items, eased. The B index, which leaves out unprocessed food, energy, alcohol, tobacco and gold, rose 28.46 percent from a year earlier, down from 29.00 percent in September. The C index, which also leaves out processed food, rose 28.28 percent, down from 28.70 percent, [Medyascope reported](https://medyascope.tv/2026/11/03/yillik-enflasyon-ekimde-yuzde-2977ye-cikti/).\n\nProducer prices, which track what domestic manufacturers charge, rose 1.65 percent in the month and 27.41 percent from a year earlier. Their 12-month average was 27.83 percent.\n\n## The trend since last year\n\nAnnual inflation has eased from 32.87 percent in October 2025, according to [the central bank's inflation data tables](https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/TR/TCMB%2BTR/Main%2BMenu/Istatistikler/Enflasyon+Verileri/), which republish TÜİK's figures. It rose again in the spring, reaching 32.61 percent in May, before falling for four straight months. The rate peaked at 75.45 percent in May 2024.\n\n**Turkey's annual consumer inflation rate, October 2025 to October 2026**\n\nChange in the consumer price index from the same month a year earlier, as published by TÜİK.","textStyle":"body","layout":"text"},{"role":"htmltable","html":"
MonthAnnual CPI inflation
Oct 202532.87%
Nov 202531.07%
Dec 202530.89%
Jan 202630.65%
Feb 202631.53%
Mar 202630.87%
Apr 202632.37%
May 202632.61%
Jun 202632.11%
Jul 202631.75%
Aug 202631.51%
Sep 202629.73%
Oct 202629.77%
","layout":"text"},{"role":"body","format":"markdown","text":"Source: [Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye, inflation data](https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/TR/TCMB%2BTR/Main%2BMenu/Istatistikler/Enflasyon+Verileri/), [TÜİK](https://www.tuik.gov.tr/Home/HaberBultenleriPartial)\n\nMonthly price rises have been uneven this year. The central bank's table shows a 4.84 percent rise in January, when many prices and fees are reset, and 4.18 percent in April. The smallest rise was 0.99 percent in June.\n\n**Monthly change in Turkey's consumer price index, 2026**\n\nChange from the previous month, as published by TÜİK.","textStyle":"body","layout":"text"},{"role":"htmltable","html":"
MonthMonthly CPI change
Jan4.84%
Feb2.96%
Mar1.94%
Apr4.18%
May1.71%
Jun0.99%
Jul1.78%
Aug1.84%
Sep1.84%
Oct2.58%
","layout":"text"},{"role":"body","format":"markdown","text":"Source: [Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye, inflation data](https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/TR/TCMB%2BTR/Main%2BMenu/Istatistikler/Enflasyon+Verileri/)\n\n## How the figure compared with forecasts\n\nTwenty-one economists surveyed by AA Finans, Anadolu's financial news service, had expected a monthly rise of 2.20 percent, Anadolu reported. Their forecasts ranged from 1.25 percent to 2.70 percent. They had expected an annual rate of 29.28 percent. On average they expected inflation to end the year at 29.64 percent.\n\nThe government's own year-end forecast is lower. The Medium-Term Program for 2027 to 2029, which Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz announced on September 6, put inflation at 28.4 percent at the end of 2026, [DW Türkçe reported](https://www.dw.com/tr/ovp-a%C3%A7%C4%B1kland%C4%B1-2026-sonu-enflasyon-tahmini-y%C3%BCzde-284/a-79055267). The previous program had forecast 16 percent. The new plan projects 21 percent for 2027, 13.5 percent for 2028 and 9 percent for 2029. Officials attributed about 7 points of the change to the effects of the war, citing the central bank, DW reported.\n\nThe Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye cut its main policy rate to 36 percent from 37 percent on October 22, [its announcement said](https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/tr/tcmb+tr/main+menu/duyurular/basin/2026/duy2026-45). It set the overnight lending rate at 39 percent and the borrowing rate at 34.5 percent. Its medium-term target is 5 percent. It named energy prices and geopolitical events as risks to the outlook.\n\n## Uses of the new figures\n\nThe October data matter beyond the headline. The 12-month average CPI rate of 31.23 percent is now the cap on rent increases for home and business leases renewed in November, [Euronews Türkçe reported](https://tr.euronews.com/2026/11/03/ekimde-yillik-enflasyon-tuik-yuzde-2977-enag-yuzde-4512-acikladi). The 12-month average producer price rate of 27.83 percent becomes the revaluation rate that sets next year's increases in many taxes, fees and fines, Öztrak noted in his statement on the data.\n\nThe figures also feed into the debate over pensions. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said last week that he hoped a law improving pensions would pass with the 2027 budget by the end of the year, [Medyascope reported on October 30](https://medyascope.tv/2026/10/30/emeklilik-duzenlemesi-icin-tarih-belli-oldu-erdogan-duyuracak/). Labor Minister Vedat Işıkhan said no final decision had been made and that a model starting January 1, 2027, was being designed.\n\n## Alternative measures\n\nENAG said consumer prices rose 2.68 percent in October and 45.12 percent from a year earlier, [T24 reported](https://t24.com.tr/ekonomi/enag-acikladi-ekim-ayi-enflasyonu-ne-kadar-oldu,1356745). That is 15.35 points above the TÜİK figure, Medyascope noted. Medyascope also pointed out that, despite their different methods, TÜİK, ENAG and the Istanbul chamber all showed a monthly rise above 2 percent.\n\nThe Istanbul Chamber of Commerce (İTO) tracks retail prices in the city. It said on November 1 that Istanbul prices rose 2.47 percent in October and 32.47 percent from a year earlier, [İhlas News Agency reported](https://www.iha.com.tr/istanbul-haberleri/ekim-ayinda-istanbulun-yillik-enflasyonu-yuzde-32-47-oldu-509465782). The chamber uses a different basket from TÜİK, so the two figures are not directly comparable.\n\n## The government's response\n\nŞimşek said annual inflation had fallen 3.1 points from a year earlier to 29.8 percent, [Bloomberg HT reported](https://www.bloomberght.com/simsek-yukselen-enerji-fiyatlari-dezenflasyonu-sinirladi-3793306). He said the decline was broad, except in transport services and energy. By his figures, annual food inflation fell 7.1 points, inflation for goods other than energy fell 2.5 points and services inflation fell 7.9 points over the year.\n\nHe said energy prices tied to the war had pushed energy inflation up by 16.7 points and had limited the slowdown. He said that steady economic activity, an expected fall in energy and commodity prices, better expectations and less stickiness in services inflation would support further declines. The government would speed up supply-side policies in food, housing and energy, he said. It would also bring state-set prices more in line with inflation targets, within the limits of the budget. He did not give a new year-end forecast in the remarks reported by Bloomberg HT. He posted the same figures on his X account.\n\n## The opposition's response\n\nThe figures came out as party leaders addressed their parliamentary groups, as they do each Tuesday. Turkey's opposition is split. A court annulled the Republican People's Party (CHP) congress that had elected Özgür Özel and returned Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu as chair. In July, Özel and 91 lawmakers who had been elected for the CHP formed the YENİ Parti, [DW Türkçe reported at the time](https://www.dw.com/tr/yeni-parti-kuruldu-%C3%B6zg%C3%BCr-%C3%B6zel-oy-birli%C4%9Fiyle-genel-ba%C5%9Fkan/a-78095508).\n\nFaik Öztrak, who chairs the CHP's parliamentary group, said the government had now missed its own forecast. To reach the 28.4 percent year-end target, he said, prices could rise only 0.69 percent in total over the last two months, [Hibya reported](https://hibya.com/oztrak-dar-gelirlinin-enflasyonu-resmi-rakamlarin-cok-uzerinde-1079960). Because prices rose slowly in the last two months of 2025, he argued, a year-end rate above 30 percent was already unavoidable. That arithmetic matches the published index. Öztrak said food, housing and transport make up about three-quarters of spending for the lowest income group, so their inflation is \"far above the official figures.\" He called inflation \"a wealth transfer machine\" and urged voters to change the government at the ballot box.\n\nSibel Suiçmez, a YENİ Parti lawmaker, pointed to the gap between TÜİK and ENAG, [Turkinform reported](https://turkinform.com.tr/yeni-partili-suicmezden-sert-elestiri-milletin-mutfagindaki-yangin-sonmuyor). She said TÜİK's job is not to write success stories. She said that slower inflation did not mean life had become cheaper.\n\nAt her party's group meeting, Tülay Hatimoğulları, co-chair of the pro-Kurdish Peoples' Equality and Democracy Party (DEM Party), turned to pensions. She said her party's pledge was a pension equal to half the poverty line, which she put at 61,928 lira, [according to T24's transcript of the speech](https://t24.com.tr/politika/dem-parti-tbmm-grup-toplantisi,1356809).\n\n## What the figures can and cannot show\n\nBoth sides cite real numbers. The annual rate is lower than a year ago, as Şimşek said, and the core measures eased in October. The monthly rise was also higher than expected, and the year-end forecast in the Medium-Term Program now looks hard to reach, as Öztrak said.\n\nThe dispute over ENAG is harder to settle. TÜİK is the official statistics agency, and its figures are used to set the rent cap. Opposition lawmakers such as Öztrak say the official basket does not reflect what low-income households spend most on. 567politics reports both figures and does not judge which better reflects living costs. Our [editorial standards](https://567politics.com/editorial-standards) explain how we handle disputed data.\n\nFor wider economic context, see our [comparison of Türkiye and the United States](https://567politics.com/compare-countries/turkiye-vs-united-states) and [of Germany and Türkiye](https://567politics.com/compare-countries/germany-vs-turkiye). Separately, an investigation into collapsed investment funds has reached Turkey's market institutions; see our report on [the arrest request for Borsa İstanbul's former chief](https://567politics.com/news/turkey-fund-probe-borsa-istanbul-ergun-arrest-request-takasbank-spk-november-2026).\n\n## What comes next\n\nTÜİK will publish November inflation in early December. The central bank's next rate decision will be the first since the October figure. Budget talks for 2027 have begun in parliament, Hatimoğulları noted in her speech. Erdoğan has tied the pension plan to that budget. Opposition parties used Tuesday's speeches to press for higher pensions.","textStyle":"body","layout":"text"}]}