{"version":"1.9","identifier":"44eaa9c6-53f6-4af2-a124-7fdb92152621","language":"en-US","title":"Mahmood sets a 10-year default path to UK settlement but keeps five years for most care workers","layout":{"columns":7,"width":1024,"margin":32,"gutter":20},"componentLayouts":{"text":{"columnStart":0,"columnSpan":7,"maximumContentWidth":720,"margin":{"top":12,"bottom":12}},"photo":{"columnStart":0,"columnSpan":7,"margin":{"top":20,"bottom":20}}},"componentTextStyles":{"default":{"fontName":"HelveticaNeue","fontSize":18,"lineHeight":29,"textColor":"#171717"},"headline":{"fontName":"HelveticaNeue-Bold","fontSize":36,"lineHeight":42,"conditional":[{"conditions":{"maxViewportWidth":480},"fontSize":28,"lineHeight":34}]},"intro":{"fontName":"HelveticaNeue","fontSize":20,"lineHeight":28,"textColor":"#555555"},"caption":{"fontName":"HelveticaNeue","fontSize":13,"lineHeight":19,"textColor":"#666666"},"byline":{"fontName":"HelveticaNeue","fontSize":13,"lineHeight":20,"textColor":"#666666"},"body":{"fontName":"HelveticaNeue","fontSize":18,"lineHeight":29,"paragraphSpacingAfter":14,"linkStyle":{"textColor":"#00704a"}}},"metadata":{"canonicalURL":"https://567politics.com/news/uk-earned-settlement-mahmood-ilr-ten-year-path-november-2026","datePublished":"2026-11-02T16:29:30.234496Z","dateModified":"2026-11-02T19:43:18.610775Z","authors":["567politics News Desk"],"excerpt":"Final Home Office rules tie the wait for permanent residence to earnings and drop a 15-year wait for care workers who arrived before May 2025.","thumbnailURL":"https://pub-fac99da959e344fe99d810d309cef7df.r2.dev/photos/article/44eaa9c6-53f6-4af2-a124-7fdb92152621/fece50a2005be0f89294952886b3853b.jpg","keywords":["policy"],"generatorName":"Frog News","generatorVersion":"1.0"},"components":[{"role":"title","text":"Mahmood sets a 10-year default path to UK settlement but keeps five years for most care workers","textStyle":"headline","layout":"text"},{"role":"intro","text":"Final Home Office rules tie the wait for permanent residence to earnings and drop a 15-year wait for care workers who arrived before May 2025.","textStyle":"intro","layout":"text"},{"role":"byline","text":"By 567politics News Desk · Published November 2, 2026","textStyle":"byline","layout":"text"},{"role":"photo","URL":"https://pub-fac99da959e344fe99d810d309cef7df.r2.dev/photos/article/44eaa9c6-53f6-4af2-a124-7fdb92152621/fece50a2005be0f89294952886b3853b.jpg","caption":"Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood, official cabinet portrait, September 2025. Cropped for publication. · Lauren Hurley / No 10 Downing Street, OGL v3","accessibilityCaption":"Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood, official cabinet portrait, September 2025. Cropped for publication.","layout":"photo"},{"role":"caption","text":"Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood, official cabinet portrait, September 2025. Cropped for publication. · Lauren Hurley / No 10 Downing Street, OGL v3","textStyle":"caption","layout":"text"},{"role":"body","format":"markdown","text":"Most migrants who want to settle permanently in the United Kingdom will have to wait 10 years instead of five. Home Secretary [Shabana Mahmood](https://567politics.com/politicians/shabana-mahmood) set out the rules in the House of Commons on Monday, November 2. But she dropped her most contested proposal. Most care workers who arrived before May 2025 will keep their current five-year path, rather than facing the 15-year wait proposed a year ago.\n\nThe Home Office published its final policy the same day, in a document titled \"[A Fairer Pathway to Settlement: Government Response to the Consultation](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6ae89fddf4a6b3f59cf37580/FINAL_VERSION_-_Earned_Settlement_-_Consultation_Response.pdf).\" It replaces a system in which permanent residence, known as indefinite leave to remain (ILR) or settlement, comes mainly with time spent in the country. Under the new \"earned settlement\" model, the wait depends on earnings, public-sector work, family ties and conduct. The department's own estimate is that more than 500,000 people expected to settle between 2026 and 2030 will now become eligible later than under current rules.\n\n\"Settlement should not be automatic. It should be earned,\" Mahmood told MPs, according to [the Guardian's live coverage](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2026/nov/02/andy-burnham-shabana-mahmood-migration-indefinite-leave-to-remain-care-workers-uk-politics-latest-news) of the statement. Conservatives and Reform UK called the care-worker change a retreat. Unions, think tanks and some Labour figures had pressed for exactly that change, and some still say the 10-year default goes too far.\n\n## What the final rules say\n\nILR lets a person live, work and study in the UK without time limits and apply for benefits if eligible, the [BBC explained](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c6lye8g4w7g1o). It is also the usual step before British citizenship.\n\nUnder the consultation response, every applicant must first clear a set of mandatory requirements. These include no criminal record, no unpaid debt to the government, English at the B2 level and a minimum level of earnings. The minimum is £12,571 a year, tied to the basic rate of income tax. After that, the document sets out several qualifying periods:","textStyle":"body","layout":"text"},{"role":"htmltable","html":"<table><tr><th>Pathway</th><th>Who qualifies, per the Home Office document</th></tr><tr><td>3 years</td><td>People earning at least £125,141 (the additional-rate tax threshold) in three of the four years before applying, and those on top talent routes</td></tr><tr><td>5 years</td><td>People earning at least £50,271 in three of the five years before applying; eligible health and education workers on national pay scales, such as doctors, nurses and teachers; people with a British connection, such as partners of citizens</td></tr><tr><td>10 years</td><td>The default for workers meeting the £12,571 threshold in five of the seven years before applying</td></tr><tr><td>20 years</td><td>People who have used specified public funds in the five years before applying, or who have committed immigration breaches</td></tr></table>","layout":"text"},{"role":"body","format":"markdown","text":"The document says the earnings thresholds will move with income tax thresholds. Couples may combine income in some cases, and periods such as maternity leave will not automatically push someone onto a longer path, under a \"best years\" approach.\n\nSome groups are outside the new framework. Mahmood said several groups would \"see their path to settlement remain as today.\" She listed Hong Kong British nationals, overseas members of the armed forces, people with a British connection and those on \"legacy routes such as Windrush.\" Time spent on temporary routes, such as student and graduate visas, will not count toward the qualifying period, the document says.\n\nFor refugees, the default rises sharply. The document sets five years for those arriving through designated safe and legal routes, such as resettlement schemes. Refugees on the basic \"core protection\" route face 20 years, or 10 years if they move into sustained work, education or training. People who arrived illegally can face up to 30 years, the document says, except where Article 31 of the Refugee Convention applies. Mahmood confirmed in the Commons that people arriving by small boat would face the 30-year wait, the Guardian reported.\n\n## The care-worker change\n\nThe biggest change from last year's plan concerns care workers. Mahmood said 250,000 people and their dependants arrived on or switched into the social care route between 2022 and 2025. \"It is also, however, the case that this route was abused,\" she said. She blamed the previous Conservative government, saying it \"lost control entirely.\"\n\nUnder the final policy, care workers who entered or switched into the route before the May 2025 immigration white paper keep the five-year path. To qualify, they must meet a £25,000 salary requirement, sponsorship and employment rules, and the new minimum requirements. Mahmood said those who did not meet their visa conditions, \"around a quarter\" of the group, could apply for \"another five-year care visa.\" They would not be tied to their old employer. The document says they will have no recourse to public funds on that visa. From February 1, 2027, care workers whose sponsor loses its license will get up to 120 days to find a new job offer and 60 more days to resolve their status.\n\nThe same transitional rule will apply to some lower-paid health and education workers who arrived before May 2025, such as auxiliary nurses, Mahmood said. Care workers who arrived after the white paper will go on the 10-year path. \"After that point, as our consultation shows, the government's position of a ten year path to settlement was widely understood,\" she told MPs.\n\nThe Home Office's own figures show the uncertainty. Annex A of the document says 196,000 care workers and 186,000 dependants are in the relevant forecast group. It estimates \"in the region of 146,000 care workers and 136,000 dependants\" could qualify for the transitional arrangement. About 50,000 care workers and 50,000 dependants might not, and 6,000 care workers and 5,000 dependants arrived after the white paper. The document calls the size of these groups \"uncertain.\"\n\n```chart\ntype: column\ntitle: The final earned settlement rules delay fewer people than last year's plan\nnote: People who would wait longer for settlement than under the rules in place before the reform, as reported by the BBC.\nsource: [BBC, Nov. 2, 2026](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c6lye8g4w7g1o)\n---\nVersion | People delayed from settling\nNovember 2025 proposal | 799000\nFinal rules, November 2026 | 517000\n```\n\n## Who responded to the consultation\n\nThe consultation drew 204,667 responses, including 202,241 from individuals and 2,426 from organizations, the document says. Of the individuals, 73% held current visas and 18% were British citizens. The Home Office says respondents \"were self-selecting.\" It adds that the results \"should not be treated as representative of the general public or stakeholders as a whole.\"\n\nThat makes the consultation a record of who chose to respond, not a measure of public opinion. Shadow Home Secretary Chris Philp seized on the breakdown during the statement. \"Only 18% of respondents to the government's immigration consultation were actually British citizens… most of the rest were migrants wanting to stay here,\" he [wrote on X](https://x.com/CPhilpOfficial/status/2117288688405397854). His figures match the document. The document does not say the government's decisions followed the majority of responses.\n\n## The argument from the right\n\nConservatives and Reform UK argued the government had retreated under pressure from the Labour left, and that settlement for lower-paid workers will cost taxpayers.\n\nBefore the statement, Philp [wrote on X](https://x.com/CPhilpOfficial/status/2117178880029085938) that Mahmood had been \"forced to surrender to Angela Rayner and the open-borders Labour left.\" He said she would \"allow hundreds of thousands of low-wage and no-wage migrants to stay in the UK forever and claim benefits.\" He set out the Conservative alternative: \"a ten year route to ILR, only for high wage workers.\" He added that \"no more low wage workers\" should be admitted and that those already here \"should be required to leave when their temporary work visa expires.\"\n\nDuring the statement, Philp [posted](https://x.com/CPhilpOfficial/status/2117289850009170108) that the government had \"executed a substantial climbdown.\" He wrote that \"250,000 low wage care workers and dependents - even ones who came fraudulently - will get to stay for at least ten years and 75% of them can stay forever.\" He also wrote that \"the government's own figures show the cost of this to taxpayers is £10 billion.\"\n\nSome of that is consistent with the document and some needs context. The document's indicative split, about three-quarters qualifying and one-quarter not, is close to Philp's 75% figure. The \"£10 billion\" refers to a Home Office estimate of lifetime fiscal cost that Mahmood cited in a March speech, the Guardian reported. The BBC reported a related Home Office calculation that 196,000 care workers and their adult dependants settling in 2026 to 2030 would cost an estimated £9.5 billion over their lifetimes. Those figures are projections built on assumptions about future earnings, benefits and health costs. Philp's description of workers who \"came fraudulently\" is his characterization. The government says some sponsors and some workers abused the route, but it has not published a count of fraudulent arrivals in the document we reviewed.\n\n[Nigel Farage](https://567politics.com/politicians/nigel-farage), the Reform UK leader, went further. In a [post on X](https://x.com/Nigel_Farage/status/2117013211820208130) on Sunday, he said Mahmood was \"losing a fight to the far left of her own party.\" He wrote that \"Reform UK would scrap ILR in its entirety and indeed rescind existing awards.\" Zia Yusuf, Reform's home affairs spokesman, said Mahmood had been \"overruled\" by Prime Minister [Andy Burnham](https://567politics.com/politicians/andy-burnham), calling it \"a disaster for Britain,\" the BBC reported. Farage also argued that the cabinet \"doesn't even have an electoral mandate.\" Burnham became prime minister in July after winning the Labour leadership, not through a general election.\n\n## The argument from the left\n\nOn the other side, critics argued the original plan broke faith with people already working in the UK, and that even the revised rules put too much weight on income.\n\nHousing Secretary [Angela Rayner](https://567politics.com/politicians/angela-rayner) had said applying the changes to migrants already in the UK would \"change the goalposts,\" the BBC reported. Several Labour MPs called the retroactive approach \"un-British,\" according to the same report. Former Home Office minister Mike Tapp told BBC Radio 4 he hoped those \"genuinely working in health and social care for five years\" would be exempt from the longer wait.\n\nThe Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR), a left-of-center think tank, [published an analysis](https://www.ippr.org/articles/earned-settlement-decision-time) on Monday challenging the £10 billion figure's place in the debate. It estimated that all skilled workers expected to settle in 2026 to 2030, including health and care workers, and their adult dependants would make a net lifetime fiscal contribution of roughly £115 billion. The IPPR said it used the same approach as the Home Office's care-worker estimate. It also argued that the original plan would never have saved £10 billion. Delaying settlement mainly saves welfare spending, it said, while the £10 billion figure includes long-run costs such as state pensions and health care in retirement. It argued that the risk of deterring skilled workers \"who make a significant fiscal contribution\" should weigh in the final decision. Both figures rely on the Migration Advisory Committee's fiscal modeling, the Guardian noted. That modeling found most visa groups contribute more than they cost over their lifetimes, but estimated a negative lifetime contribution of £36,000 for care workers.\n\nThe King's Fund, a health think tank, warned that overseas care-worker recruitment was already falling from 105,000 in 2023/24 to 30,000 in 2025/26, and was trending toward 10,000 in 2026/27, the Guardian reported. Senior analyst Danielle Jefferies said the diverging trends in demand and recruitment paint \"a bleak picture for where the social care workforce will be unless there is significant intervention from the government.\"\n\nChildren's advocates raised a separate concern. Anita Hurrell of Coram Children's Legal Centre said \"child dependants must be allowed to settle with their first settling parent,\" according to the Guardian. The centrist Liberal Democrats also objected. Before the statement, home affairs spokesman Max Wilkinson said: \"We need an immigration system that supports our economy, public services and integration - but the home secretary's reforms will undermine that,\" the BBC reported.\n\nMahmood answered critics on her own side by framing the policy in Labour terms. \"I do not think this despite being a Labour politician. I think this because I am a Labour politician,\" she said. \"Solidarity is the precondition for social justice.\"\n\n## The context: falling net migration\n\nThe policy was drawn up when net migration was at record levels. The Home Office says net migration added 2.6 million people to the UK population between 2021 and 2024, the BBC reported. Since then, the numbers have fallen. The Guardian cited last week's Office for Budget Responsibility forecast showing a sharp decline.\n\nBurnham, who is traveling to the Commonwealth summit in Antigua, told ITV that legal migration has \"come right down.\" He added that \"when you have planned migration, it's difficult to say is it too high or too low,\" the Guardian reported. Burnham's trip is also the setting for his debate over a possible apology for Britain's role in slavery, covered in our [report on the Commonwealth summit](https://567politics.com/news/burnham-slavery-apology-reparations-caribbean-october-2026). Downing Street rejected suggestions that Monday's statement was timed for his absence, the Guardian reported.\n\nThe Oxford Migration Observatory's Ben Brindle told the BBC that, \"at the broader level,\" the policy \"probably won't have too much impact\" on decisions to come to the UK. For people already in the UK, the change mainly means a longer wait. Mahmood said those on the 10-year path \"will be able to renew their existing temporary visas until that point.\" Immigration is one of the issues tracked on our [UK issues page](https://567politics.com/issues/united-kingdom).\n\n## What comes next\n\nThe changes do not need new primary legislation, so MPs will not vote on amendments, the Guardian noted. The document says the government will publish further technical guidance before implementation and prepare \"a full Impact Assessment\" to accompany it. It did not give an implementation date in the sections we reviewed. Mahmood told MPs that settlement rules \"are determined when a settlement decision is made, not at the point when someone arrives,\" a position she said courts had upheld.\n\n## About this report\n\nThis report draws on the Home Office's consultation response, Mahmood's Commons statement as reported live by the Guardian, BBC reporting, the IPPR's analysis and verified posts on X from Philp and Farage. Responses from opposition front benches in the Commons were still under way when we published. We did not review a full Hansard transcript, which was not yet available. The fiscal estimates cited here are projections, not measured outcomes. Our [methodology](https://567politics.com/methodology) and [editorial standards](https://567politics.com/editorial-standards) explain how we handle contested figures. US Federal Election Commission funding data does not apply to the UK politicians quoted, and this report does not discuss their personal finances. UK ministers' interests are recorded in the Register of Members' Financial Interests, which we did not review for this story.\n\nPhoto: Shabana Mahmood's official cabinet portrait, September 2025, by Lauren Hurley / No 10 Downing Street, via [Wikimedia Commons](https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Shabana_Mahmood_Official_Cabinet_Portrait,_September_2025_\\(cropped\\).jpg), [Open Government License v3.0](https://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3/). Cropped for publication.","textStyle":"body","layout":"text"}]}