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Prices, with context.

567politics tracks political prediction market contracts. Prices reflect trading activity and contract rules; they are not polls or a calibrated election forecast.

What the numbers mean

Kalshi prices use the midpoint of an available, valid yes bid and ask. Polymarket prices use the outcome prices supplied by its public Gamma API. Missing or invalid prices display as unavailable. We retain each source’s question and outcome wording.

Sources stay separate

We do not average contracts or infer that similar questions have identical resolution rules. Review the linked source before comparing. Volume, liquidity, spreads, fees and settlement rules can affect prices.

Coverage and freshness

Race maps use a verified catalog of exact event, market and outcome identifiers, with the original resolution rules. Discovery is a separate, bounded feed; a missing contract never becomes an inferred party probability. Source failures appear individually. Fetch time is distinct from a provider’s last quote update. Provider data refreshes once per day at 12:00 UTC. Visits and chart requests read stored data without contacting providers. The freshness notice shows the last successful refresh for each source; failed refreshes retain earlier observations.

Maps and charts

State maps and the full 435-seat House cartogram show the higher-priced party at the selected provider. A difference of less than two percentage points is near-even. Both Democratic and Republican quotes must be available; missing data stays neutral. These are market favorites, not vote shares, called seats or a forecast of chamber control. Historical charts use Kalshi closing bid/ask midpoints and Polymarket outcome-price history; a scheduled daily job stores observations in the shared Postgres database. Previously saved provider histories are retained. Missing days remain missing. Nomination odds and general-election odds remain separate.

The newsroom

Reporting uses the same editorial platform, accounts, comments and moderation as the Frog network. Market prices do not determine editorial rankings.