2026 · CHAMBER CONTROL
United States.
What do the markets say?
U.S. Senate control after the 2026 election. Compare each source’s prices and how they have changed.
THE RACE OVER TIME
How the markets have moved
Historical prices retain each source’s metric: Kalshi daily bid/ask midpoint, Polymarket outcome price, and ForecastEx daily close. Gemini and PredictIt show stored daily bid/ask observations where older provider history is unavailable. ForecastEx file dates use a 12:00 UTC display anchor. Lines join available observations; missing dates are not filled.
Accessible chart data
| Source | Outcome | UTC time | Price |
|---|
What each market says
INDEPENDENT CONTRACTS · NO AVERAGINGThe same race can have different resolution rules across sources. Each price below belongs to its own contract.
Kalshi
No verified contract for this race from Kalshi.
Polymarket
No verified contract for this race from Polymarket.
ForecastEx
Daily closing price · published file date · 2026-10-24
Collected during the scheduled daily refresh
View contract at ForecastEx ↗Question, identity & settlement rules
U.S. Senate control after the 2026 election
SENM_1126_Republican:YESUS Senate Majority. YES outcome: Republican. Original ForecastEx contract identifier: SENM_1126_Republican. This is the published daily closing price, not an intraday quote. Binding resolution terms are set by ForecastEx.
Daily closing price · published file date · 2026-10-24
Collected during the scheduled daily refresh
View contract at ForecastEx ↗Question, identity & settlement rules
U.S. Senate control after the 2026 election
SENM_1126_Democratic:YESUS Senate Majority. YES outcome: Democratic. Original ForecastEx contract identifier: SENM_1126_Democratic. This is the published daily closing price, not an intraday quote. Binding resolution terms are set by ForecastEx.
Gemini
YES bid/ask midpoint · daily observation
Collected during the scheduled daily refresh
View contract at Gemini ↗Question, identity & settlement rules
U.S. Senate control after the 2026 election
GEMI-CTRLUSSEN-DEMThis contract resolves based on whether the Democratic Party controls the U.S. Senate following the 2026 United States midterm elections held on Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Control is defined as holding the most seats in the Senate based on final, official results. A majority consists of at least 51 seats. If two parties hold the same number of seats, control is determined by which party enters government, including consideration of the Vice President’s tie-breaking role. Independents who formally caucus with a party are treated as members of that party. If control cannot be determined by seat totals, control is determined by Senate leadership, as reflected by the party affiliation of the President Pro Tempore. The contract resolves to Yes if the Democratic Party controls the Senate and to No otherwise. Read the full contract [terms & conditions](https://images.ctfassets.net/jg6lo9a2ukvr/4N0uAFXTLBUpbp1Z7iPjJi/f185eb7d03ccd2e33a41426f215b8b53/Election_Outcomes_-_Terms_and_Conditions.pdf)
YES bid/ask midpoint · daily observation
Collected during the scheduled daily refresh
View contract at Gemini ↗Question, identity & settlement rules
U.S. Senate control after the 2026 election
GEMI-CTRLUSSEN-GOPThis contract resolves based on whether the Republican Party controls the U.S. Senate following the 2026 United States midterm elections held on Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Control is defined as holding the most seats in the Senate based on final, official results. A majority consists of at least 51 seats. If two parties hold the same number of seats, control is determined by which party enters government, including consideration of the Vice President’s tie-breaking role. Independents who formally caucus with a party are treated as members of that party. If control cannot be determined by seat totals, control is determined by Senate leadership, as reflected by the party affiliation of the President Pro Tempore. The contract resolves to Yes if the Republican Party controls the Senate and to No otherwise. Read the full contract [terms & conditions](https://images.ctfassets.net/jg6lo9a2ukvr/4N0uAFXTLBUpbp1Z7iPjJi/f185eb7d03ccd2e33a41426f215b8b53/Election_Outcomes_-_Terms_and_Conditions.pdf)
PredictIt
YES bid/ask midpoint · daily observation
Collected during the scheduled daily refresh
View contract at PredictIt ↗Question, identity & settlement rules
U.S. Senate control after the 2026 election
8155:31947Which party will control the Senate after the 2026 election? Outcome: Democratic. Prices refer to this provider’s YES contract. The original market page contains the binding settlement rules; nomination, candidate and party questions remain separate.
YES bid/ask midpoint · daily observation
Collected during the scheduled daily refresh
View contract at PredictIt ↗Question, identity & settlement rules
U.S. Senate control after the 2026 election
8155:31948Which party will control the Senate after the 2026 election? Outcome: Republican. Prices refer to this provider’s YES contract. The original market page contains the binding settlement rules; nomination, candidate and party questions remain separate.
Reading the United States election markets
These prices describe contracts about the u.s. senate control after the 2026 election, rather than the share of voters supporting a party. A 60% contract price is not a prediction of a 60% vote share.
Kalshi, Gemini and PredictIt use valid YES bid/ask midpoints. Polymarket uses its outcome-price feed. ForecastEx uses the most recently published daily closing price; its file date is shown. We show Democratic, Republican and any verified independent contracts separately, without forcing the prices to add up to 100%.
History comes from provider time series and observations stored by 567politics. If a provider is unavailable, available stored history is labeled. Missing data stays missing.
Contract mapping checked 2026-10-25. Full methodology ↗