Brazil · national · election
2026 Brazil presidential election
2026 Brazil presidential election
THE RACE OVER TIME
How the markets have moved
Historical prices retain each source’s metric: Kalshi daily bid/ask midpoint, Polymarket outcome price, and ForecastEx daily close. Gemini and PredictIt show stored daily bid/ask observations where older provider history is unavailable. ForecastEx file dates use a 12:00 UTC display anchor. Lines join available observations; missing dates are not filled.
Accessible chart data
| Source | Outcome | UTC time | Price |
|---|
Select up to four outcomes to compare their histories. Listings can represent people, parties, election dates or leadership changes; they do not establish candidacy or eligibility. Prices from separate contracts are not averaged. Nomination and general-election odds answer different questions.
Loading market prices…
Names are matched only by case, spacing and punctuation. Provider-specific wording and resolution rules remain available through each contract link. Market listings reflect the verified catalog dated 2026-10-25.
Understanding this election’s prices
These contracts concern “2026 Brazil presidential election”. Question type: election. We retain the original provider questions and settlement rules. Winning an election, leading a government, leaving office and calling an election are separate outcomes. Regional results do not establish a national winner.
The outcome list represents provider listings. A party market is not a direct popular election for prime minister. Contract prices may reflect different deadlines and settlement criteria; read the rules before comparing them. No prices are converted into vote shares.
Contract catalog checked 2026-10-25. Read the full methodology ↗
Original contract rules
Kalshi · Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
If Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has won the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Original contract ↗Kalshi · Flávio Bolsonaro
If Flávio Bolsonaro has won the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Original contract ↗Polymarket · Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Original contract ↗Polymarket · Flávio Bolsonaro
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Original contract ↗PredictIt · Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
Who will win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Outcome: Luiz Inácio Lula. Prices refer to this provider’s YES contract. The original market page contains the binding settlement rules; nomination, candidate and party questions remain separate.
Original contract ↗PredictIt · Flávio Bolsonaro
Who will win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Outcome: Flávio Bolsonaro. Prices refer to this provider’s YES contract. The original market page contains the binding settlement rules; nomination, candidate and party questions remain separate.
Original contract ↗PredictIt · Romeu Zema
Who will win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Outcome: Romeu Zema. Prices refer to this provider’s YES contract. The original market page contains the binding settlement rules; nomination, candidate and party questions remain separate.
Original contract ↗Gemini · Ratinho Júnior
This market will resolve on whether Ratinho Júnior wins the 2026 Brazilian presidential election scheduled to begin on October 4, 2026. The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press (AP). This market will resolve to YES if AP reports Ratinho Júnior as the winner of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election. Otherwise, the market will resolve to NO. This event is mutually exclusive. Read the full contract [terms & conditions](https://cdn.builder.io/o/assets%2F1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba%2Fd87e2bb2cb084a0bb9d5936394a9f233?alt=media&token=01422eba-fddb-496b-bd1f-fcb568ad5383&apiKey=1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba).
Original contract ↗Gemini · Fernando Haddad
This market will resolve on whether Fernando Haddad wins the 2026 Brazilian presidential election scheduled to begin on October 4, 2026. The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press (AP). This market will resolve to YES if AP reports Fernando Haddad as the winner of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election. Otherwise, the market will resolve to NO. This event is mutually exclusive. Read the full contract [terms & conditions](https://cdn.builder.io/o/assets%2F1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba%2Fd87e2bb2cb084a0bb9d5936394a9f233?alt=media&token=01422eba-fddb-496b-bd1f-fcb568ad5383&apiKey=1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba).
Original contract ↗Gemini · Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
This market will resolve on whether Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva wins the 2026 Brazilian presidential election scheduled to begin on October 4, 2026. The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press (AP). This market will resolve to YES if AP reports Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva as the winner of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election. Otherwise, the market will resolve to NO. This event is mutually exclusive. Read the full contract [terms & conditions](https://cdn.builder.io/o/assets%2F1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba%2Fd87e2bb2cb084a0bb9d5936394a9f233?alt=media&token=01422eba-fddb-496b-bd1f-fcb568ad5383&apiKey=1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba).
Original contract ↗Gemini · Flávio Bolsonaro
This market will resolve on whether Flávio Bolsonaro wins the 2026 Brazilian presidential election scheduled to begin on October 4, 2026. The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press (AP). This market will resolve to YES if AP reports Flávio Bolsonaro as the winner of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election. Otherwise, the market will resolve to NO. This event is mutually exclusive. Read the full contract [terms & conditions](https://cdn.builder.io/o/assets%2F1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba%2Fd87e2bb2cb084a0bb9d5936394a9f233?alt=media&token=01422eba-fddb-496b-bd1f-fcb568ad5383&apiKey=1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba).
Original contract ↗Gemini · Tarcísio de Freitas
This market will resolve on whether Tarcísio de Freitas wins the 2026 Brazilian presidential election scheduled to begin on October 4, 2026. The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press (AP). This market will resolve to YES if AP reports Tarcísio de Freitas as the winner of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election. Otherwise, the market will resolve to NO. This event is mutually exclusive. Read the full contract [terms & conditions](https://cdn.builder.io/o/assets%2F1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba%2Fd87e2bb2cb084a0bb9d5936394a9f233?alt=media&token=01422eba-fddb-496b-bd1f-fcb568ad5383&apiKey=1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba).
Original contract ↗Gemini · Renan Santos
This market will resolve on whether Renan Santos wins the 2026 Brazilian presidential election scheduled to begin on October 4, 2026. The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press (AP). This market will resolve to YES if AP reports Renan Santos as the winner of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election. Otherwise, the market will resolve to NO. This event is mutually exclusive. Read the full contract [terms & conditions](https://cdn.builder.io/o/assets%2F1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba%2Fd87e2bb2cb084a0bb9d5936394a9f233?alt=media&token=01422eba-fddb-496b-bd1f-fcb568ad5383&apiKey=1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba).
Original contract ↗