WORLD COVERAGE · COUNTRY GUIDE
Brazil
Politics by the numbers.
SOURCE COVERAGE
What can you compare?
Verified outcome contracts in the catalog, not vote shares or independent forecasts. Zero means no verified contract from that provider. Quotes and history appear when collected; a listing alone does not establish an active quote.
NEXT NATIONAL CYCLE
2026 presidential cycle: runoff scheduled for 25 October 2026
Previous: 2022 presidential and legislative elections; 2026 election cycle in progress at review
GOVERNMENT SNAPSHOT
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
Head of state · reviewed 2026-10-25
How the election works
Federal presidential republic. President, governors, senators and deputies are elected through different contests.
The presidency uses a runoff if no candidate obtains an absolute majority of valid first-round votes. Deputies are elected through proportional party-list voting.
Presidential victory does not itself establish a congressional majority. The 2026 runoff is not certified by this static country guide; consult the electoral court for results.
513 Chamber of Deputies seats · 257 is more than half of the full chamber. This neutral seat diagram illustrates chamber size; it does not assign winners or model confidence-vote rules.
Selected parties: Workers’ Party (PT) · Liberal Party (PL) · MDB · PSD · Progressistas · União Brasil
FEATURED MARKET · Election outcome
2026 Brazil presidential election
THE RACE OVER TIME
How the markets have moved
Historical prices retain each source’s metric: Kalshi daily bid/ask midpoint, Polymarket outcome price, and ForecastEx daily close. Gemini and PredictIt show stored daily bid/ask observations where older provider history is unavailable. ForecastEx file dates use a 12:00 UTC display anchor. Lines join available observations; missing dates are not filled.
Accessible chart data
| Source | Party | UTC time | Price |
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Select up to four outcomes to compare their histories. Listings can represent people, parties, election dates or leadership changes; they do not establish candidacy or eligibility. Prices from separate contracts are not averaged. Nomination and general-election odds answer different questions.
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Names are matched only by case, spacing and punctuation. Provider-specific wording and resolution rules remain available through each contract link. Market listings reflect the verified catalog dated 2026-10-25.
Full question, source contracts & rules ↗Questions the markets cover
Only verified provider contracts receive prices. Leadership-exit, election-timing, party-seat and election-winner questions are labeled separately. Markets may be absent for a future national election; regional markets are not substituted for a national forecast. This guide is an editorial snapshot, not continuous monitoring of officeholders or certified results.
Election outcome
20 issues in Brazil
Our editorial watchlist is specific to this country. The numbers describe policy positions, not approval or a ranking of importance. Unreviewed politicians receive no inferred score.
Read all 20 issues and all ten steps for each scale ↗COMPARE THE RECORD
Where do they stand?
Legal immigration & asylum access · 1: Near-total closure of legal entry · 10: Minimal admission limits and broad regularization. Historical positions are dated in each profile; unreviewed positions stay blank.
Each score links to its politician’s evidence and full 10-step rubric. No overall ideological ranking.
Politicians & electoral histories
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva ↗
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rose through Brazil’s metalworkers’ union movement, helped found the Workers’ Party, and later served multiple presidential terms. His career includes repeated presidential campaigns and a return to the presidency after the 2022 election.
Career timeline · electoral record · issue evidenceFlávio Bolsonaro ↗
Flávio Bolsonaro’s elected career spans Rio de Janeiro’s state legislature and Brazil’s federal Senate. Official Senate records identify his Senate term and earlier four state-legislative mandates.
Career timeline · electoral record · issue evidencePrimary sources & review
Editorial guide reviewed 2026-10-25. Market quote dates appear beside each source. How we source and compare data ↗