G7 NATION · COUNTRY GUIDE
Canada
Politics by the numbers.
SOURCE COVERAGE
What can you compare?
Verified outcome contracts in the catalog, not vote shares or independent forecasts. Zero means no verified contract from that provider. Quotes and history appear when collected; a listing alone does not establish an active quote.
NEXT NATIONAL CYCLE
Ordinary fixed-date cycle points to 2029; an earlier election can be called
Previous: 28 April 2025 federal election
GOVERNMENT SNAPSHOT
Mark Carney
Head of government · reviewed 2026-10-25
How the election works
Federal parliamentary democracy and constitutional monarchy.
Each riding elects one MP by single-member plurality. Voters do not cast a nationwide ballot for prime minister.
The prime minister must command the confidence of the House of Commons. A minority government can rely on support from other parties. Provincial and municipal contests are separate.
343 House of Commons seats · 172 is more than half of the full chamber. This neutral seat diagram illustrates chamber size; it does not assign winners or model confidence-vote rules.
Selected parties: Liberal Party · Conservative Party · Bloc Québécois · New Democratic Party · Green Party
FEATURED MARKET · national · Election timing
Another Canada election called by...?
THE RACE OVER TIME
How the markets have moved
Historical prices retain each source’s metric: Kalshi daily bid/ask midpoint, Polymarket outcome price, and ForecastEx daily close. Gemini and PredictIt show stored daily bid/ask observations where older provider history is unavailable. ForecastEx file dates use a 12:00 UTC display anchor. Lines join available observations; missing dates are not filled.
Accessible chart data
| Source | Outcome | UTC time | Price |
|---|
Select up to four outcomes to compare their histories. Listings can represent people, parties, election dates or leadership changes; they do not establish candidacy or eligibility. Prices from separate contracts are not averaged. Nomination and general-election odds answer different questions.
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Names are matched only by case, spacing and punctuation. Provider-specific wording and resolution rules remain available through each contract link. Market listings reflect the verified catalog dated 2026-10-25.
Full question, source contracts & rules ↗Questions the markets cover
Current linked questions cover federal-election timing and provincial or municipal contests; they do not provide a national federal-election winner forecast. Only verified provider contracts receive prices. Leadership-exit, election-timing, party-seat and election-winner questions are labeled separately. Markets may be absent for a future national election; regional markets are not substituted for a national forecast. This guide is an editorial snapshot, not continuous monitoring of officeholders or certified results.
Election timing
Election outcome
local · Election outcome
Toronto Mayoral Election Winner ↗
8 verified outcome contracts · Polymarket
regional · Election outcome
Kelowna Centre British Columbia Legislative Assembly Election Winner ↗
3 verified outcome contracts · Polymarket
local · Election outcome
Mississauga Mayoral Election Winner ↗
7 verified outcome contracts · Polymarket
regional · Election outcome
Cowichan Valley British Columbia Legislative Assembly Election Winner ↗
4 verified outcome contracts · Polymarket
regional · Election outcome
Burnaby South-Metrotown British Columbia Legislative Assembly Election Winner ↗
4 verified outcome contracts · Polymarket
local · Election outcome
Milton, ON Mayoral Election Winner ↗
10 verified outcome contracts · Polymarket
local · Election outcome
Brandon, MB Mayoral Election Winner ↗
2 verified outcome contracts · Polymarket
local · Election outcome
Oshawa, ON Mayoral Election Winner ↗
6 verified outcome contracts · Polymarket
regional · Election outcome
Abbotsford-Mission By-Election Winner ↗
3 verified outcome contracts · Polymarket
local · Election outcome
Stratford, ON Mayoral Election Winner ↗
5 verified outcome contracts · Polymarket
local · Election outcome
Charlottetown, PEI Mayoral Election Winner ↗
4 verified outcome contracts · Polymarket
local · Election outcome
Greater Sudbury, ON Mayoral Election Winner ↗
8 verified outcome contracts · Polymarket
local · Election outcome
Brampton, ON Mayoral Election Winner ↗
5 verified outcome contracts · Polymarket
local · Election outcome
Barrie, ON Mayoral Election Winner ↗
4 verified outcome contracts · Polymarket
local · Election outcome
Waterloo, ON Mayoral Election Winner ↗
5 verified outcome contracts · Polymarket
local · Election outcome
Kingston, ON Mayoral Election Winner ↗
5 verified outcome contracts · Polymarket
local · Election outcome
Ottawa Mayoral Election Winner ↗
5 verified outcome contracts · Polymarket
local · Election outcome
Thunder Bay, ON Mayoral Election Winner ↗
7 verified outcome contracts · Polymarket
local · Election outcome
London, ON Mayoral Election Winner ↗
4 verified outcome contracts · Polymarket
local · Election outcome
Richmond Hill, ON Mayoral Election Winner ↗
3 verified outcome contracts · Polymarket
local · Election outcome
Guelph, ON Mayoral Election Winner ↗
6 verified outcome contracts · Polymarket
local · Election outcome
Kitchener, ON Mayoral Election Winner ↗
6 verified outcome contracts · Polymarket
local · Election outcome
Windsor, ON Mayoral Election Winner ↗
6 verified outcome contracts · Polymarket
local · Election outcome
Markham, ON Mayoral Election Winner ↗
2 verified outcome contracts · Polymarket
local · Election outcome
Cambridge, ON Mayoral Election Winner ↗
6 verified outcome contracts · Polymarket
local · Election outcome
Vaughan, ON Mayoral Election Winner ↗
3 verified outcome contracts · Polymarket
Seats / party result
20 issues in Canada
Our editorial watchlist is specific to this country. The numbers describe policy positions, not approval or a ranking of importance. Unreviewed politicians receive no inferred score.
Read all 20 issues and all ten steps for each scale ↗COMPARE THE RECORD
Where do they stand?
Social and affordable housing funding · 1: End national public funding for social and affordable housing · 10: At least double real per-person funding for social and affordable housing. Historical positions are dated in each profile; unreviewed positions stay blank.
Each score links to its politician’s evidence and full 10-step rubric. No overall ideological ranking.
Politicians & electoral histories
Primary sources & review
Editorial guide reviewed 2026-10-25. Market quote dates appear beside each source. How we source and compare data ↗