Germany · regional · government
Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?
Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?
THE RACE OVER TIME
How the markets have moved
Historical prices retain each source’s metric: Kalshi daily bid/ask midpoint, Polymarket outcome price, and ForecastEx daily close. Gemini and PredictIt show stored daily bid/ask observations where older provider history is unavailable. ForecastEx file dates use a 12:00 UTC display anchor. Lines join available observations; missing dates are not filled.
Accessible chart data
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Names are matched only by case, spacing and punctuation. Provider-specific wording and resolution rules remain available through each contract link. Market listings reflect the verified catalog dated 2026-10-25.
Understanding this election’s prices
These contracts concern “Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?”. Question type: government. We retain the original provider questions and settlement rules. Winning an election, leading a government, leaving office and calling an election are separate outcomes. Regional results do not establish a national winner.
The outcome list represents provider listings. A party market is not a direct popular election for prime minister. Contract prices may reflect different deadlines and settlement criteria; read the rules before comparing them. No prices are converted into vote shares.
Contract catalog checked 2026-10-25. Read the full methodology ↗
Original contract rules
Polymarket · Yes
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) is part of the state government (Landesregierung) of any of Germany's 16 federal states at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A party is considered part of a state government if it provides at least one Minister in that state's government, including the Minister-President. In the city-states of Berlin, Hamburg and Bremen, a party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor, First Mayor or President of the Senate. A state government is considered formed when the state parliament elects the Minister-President (or, in the city-states, the Governing Mayor, First Mayor or President of the Senate) and that government has formally taken office. Coalition agreements, ministerial nominations, or announced coalition negotiations will not qualify on their own. Parties that merely support a state government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, toleration agreements, or similar) without holding a Minister or Senator post will not qualify. If the AfD is not part of any German state government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information published by the relevant state government and state parliament.
Original contract ↗Polymarket · No
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) is part of the state government (Landesregierung) of any of Germany's 16 federal states at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A party is considered part of a state government if it provides at least one Minister in that state's government, including the Minister-President. In the city-states of Berlin, Hamburg and Bremen, a party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor, First Mayor or President of the Senate. A state government is considered formed when the state parliament elects the Minister-President (or, in the city-states, the Governing Mayor, First Mayor or President of the Senate) and that government has formally taken office. Coalition agreements, ministerial nominations, or announced coalition negotiations will not qualify on their own. Parties that merely support a state government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, toleration agreements, or similar) without holding a Minister or Senator post will not qualify. If the AfD is not part of any German state government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information published by the relevant state government and state parliament.
Original contract ↗