G7 NATION · COUNTRY GUIDE
Germany
Politics by the numbers.
SOURCE COVERAGE
What can you compare?
Verified outcome contracts in the catalog, not vote shares or independent forecasts. Zero means no verified contract from that provider. Quotes and history appear when collected; a listing alone does not establish an active quote.
NEXT NATIONAL CYCLE
Next ordinary federal-election cycle: 2029; early dissolution has constitutional conditions
Previous: 23 February 2025 federal election
GOVERNMENT SNAPSHOT
Friedrich Merz
Head of government · reviewed 2026-10-25
How the election works
Federal parliamentary republic. The chancellor heads government; the federal president is a separate office.
Voters cast constituency and party-list votes. The party-list vote determines proportional seat allocation, subject to electoral thresholds and legal exceptions.
The Bundestag elects the chancellor. Coalition agreements and investiture are distinct from a party winning the largest vote share. The federal president is elected indirectly by the Federal Convention.
630 Bundestag seats · 316 is more than half of the full chamber. This neutral seat diagram illustrates chamber size; it does not assign winners or model confidence-vote rules.
Selected parties: CDU/CSU · AfD · SPD · Alliance 90/The Greens · The Left · SSW
FEATURED MARKET · national · Leadership / leaving office
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?
THE RACE OVER TIME
How the markets have moved
Historical prices retain each source’s metric: Kalshi daily bid/ask midpoint, Polymarket outcome price, and ForecastEx daily close. Gemini and PredictIt show stored daily bid/ask observations where older provider history is unavailable. ForecastEx file dates use a 12:00 UTC display anchor. Lines join available observations; missing dates are not filled.
Accessible chart data
| Source | Outcome | UTC time | Price |
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Select up to four outcomes to compare their histories. Listings can represent people, parties, election dates or leadership changes; they do not establish candidacy or eligibility. Prices from separate contracts are not averaged. Nomination and general-election odds answer different questions.
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Names are matched only by case, spacing and punctuation. Provider-specific wording and resolution rules remain available through each contract link. Market listings reflect the verified catalog dated 2026-10-25.
Full question, source contracts & rules ↗Questions the markets cover
Current linked questions cover chancellor succession, the indirectly elected federal presidency, coalition stability and regional governments; they do not provide a 2029 Bundestag election-winner forecast. Only verified provider contracts receive prices. Leadership-exit, election-timing, party-seat and election-winner questions are labeled separately. Markets may be absent for a future national election; regional markets are not substituted for a national forecast. This guide is an editorial snapshot, not continuous monitoring of officeholders or certified results.
Leadership / leaving office
national · Leadership / leaving office
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...? ↗
6 verified outcome contracts · Polymarket
national · Leadership / leaving office
Next President of Germany? ↗
7 verified outcome contracts · Polymarket
national · Leadership / leaving office
Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028? ↗
13 verified outcome contracts · Polymarket
regional · Leadership / leaving office
Next Ministerpräsident of Sachsen-Anhalt? ↗
12 verified outcome contracts · Polymarket
regional · Leadership / leaving office
Next Ministerpräsident of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern? ↗
7 verified outcome contracts · Polymarket
Government formation
regional · Government formation
Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026? ↗
2 verified outcome contracts · Polymarket
regional · Government formation
Which parties will be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government? ↗
7 verified outcome contracts · Polymarket
regional · Government formation
Which parties will be in the next Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state government? ↗
8 verified outcome contracts · Polymarket
national · Government formation
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027? ↗
2 verified outcome contracts · Polymarket
regional · Government formation
Which parties will be in the next Berlin state government? ↗
8 verified outcome contracts · Polymarket
Election timing
20 issues in Germany
Our editorial watchlist is specific to this country. The numbers describe policy positions, not approval or a ranking of importance. Unreviewed politicians receive no inferred score.
Read all 20 issues and all ten steps for each scale ↗COMPARE THE RECORD
Where do they stand?
Federal borrowing restrictions · 1: No special legal restrictions on federal borrowing beyond the ordinary debt-brake limit · 10: Complete prohibition of federal borrowing beyond the ordinary debt-brake limit. Historical positions are dated in each profile; unreviewed positions stay blank.
Each score links to its politician’s evidence and full 10-step rubric. No overall ideological ranking.
Politicians & electoral histories
Primary sources & review
Editorial guide reviewed 2026-10-25. Market quote dates appear beside each source. How we source and compare data ↗