WORLD COVERAGE · COUNTRY GUIDE
India
Politics by the numbers.
SOURCE COVERAGE
What can you compare?
Verified outcome contracts in the catalog, not vote shares or independent forecasts. Zero means no verified contract from that provider. Quotes and history appear when collected; a listing alone does not establish an active quote.
NEXT NATIONAL CYCLE
Ordinary Lok Sabha cycle: 2029; state elections follow their own calendars
Previous: 2024 Lok Sabha election
GOVERNMENT SNAPSHOT
Narendra Modi
Head of government · reviewed 2026-10-25
How the election works
Federal parliamentary republic with national and state-level elections.
Lok Sabha constituencies elect one member each by single-member plurality. Alliances, individual parties and individual candidates have different electoral meanings.
The prime minister heads a government supported by the Lok Sabha. A party winning the most seats, an alliance majority and the identity of the next prime minister are separate outcomes.
543 Lok Sabha seats · 272 is more than half of the full chamber. This neutral seat diagram illustrates chamber size; it does not assign winners or model confidence-vote rules.
Selected parties: Bharatiya Janata Party · Indian National Congress · Samajwadi Party · All India Trinamool Congress · DMK · Telugu Desam Party · Janata Dal (United)
FEATURED MARKET · national · Leadership / leaving office
Modi out by December 31, 2026?
THE RACE OVER TIME
How the markets have moved
Historical prices retain each source’s metric: Kalshi daily bid/ask midpoint, Polymarket outcome price, and ForecastEx daily close. Gemini and PredictIt show stored daily bid/ask observations where older provider history is unavailable. ForecastEx file dates use a 12:00 UTC display anchor. Lines join available observations; missing dates are not filled.
Accessible chart data
| Source | Outcome | UTC time | Price |
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Select up to four outcomes to compare their histories. Listings can represent people, parties, election dates or leadership changes; they do not establish candidacy or eligibility. Prices from separate contracts are not averaged. Nomination and general-election odds answer different questions.
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Names are matched only by case, spacing and punctuation. Provider-specific wording and resolution rules remain available through each contract link. Market listings reflect the verified catalog dated 2026-10-25.
Full question, source contracts & rules ↗Questions the markets cover
Current linked questions cover Modi leaving office, election-commission leadership and a Kolkata municipal contest. They do not provide a 2029 Lok Sabha election-winner forecast. Only verified provider contracts receive prices. Leadership-exit, election-timing, party-seat and election-winner questions are labeled separately. Markets may be absent for a future national election; regional markets are not substituted for a national forecast. This guide is an editorial snapshot, not continuous monitoring of officeholders or certified results.
Leadership / leaving office
national · Leadership / leaving office
Gyanesh Kumar out as Chief Election Commissioner of India by December 31? ↗
2 verified outcome contracts · Polymarket
national · Leadership / leaving office
Modi out by December 31, 2026? ↗
2 verified outcome contracts · Polymarket
national · Leadership / leaving office
Modi out by June 30, 2027? ↗
2 verified outcome contracts · Polymarket
Election outcome
20 issues in India
Our editorial watchlist is specific to this country. The numbers describe policy positions, not approval or a ranking of importance. Unreviewed politicians receive no inferred score.
Read all 20 issues and all ten steps for each scale ↗COMPARE THE RECORD
Where do they stand?
Public employment-programme funding · 1: End national public funding for public employment-guarantee programmes · 10: At least double real per-person funding for public employment-guarantee programmes. Historical positions are dated in each profile; unreviewed positions stay blank.
Each score links to its politician’s evidence and full 10-step rubric. No overall ideological ranking.
Politicians & electoral histories
Primary sources & review
Editorial guide reviewed 2026-10-25. Market quote dates appear beside each source. How we source and compare data ↗