G7 NATION · COUNTRY GUIDE
Italy
Politics by the numbers.
SOURCE COVERAGE
What can you compare?
Verified outcome contracts in the catalog, not vote shares or independent forecasts. Zero means no verified contract from that provider. Quotes and history appear when collected; a listing alone does not establish an active quote.
NEXT NATIONAL CYCLE
Ordinary parliamentary-election cycle: 2027; an earlier election is possible
Previous: 25 September 2022 parliamentary election
GOVERNMENT SNAPSHOT
Giorgia Meloni
Head of government · reviewed 2026-10-25
How the election works
Parliamentary republic with two chambers whose confidence is required by the government.
Parliamentary elections combine single-member constituencies and proportional lists. Coalition labels, party lists and individual candidates are not interchangeable.
The president appoints a prime minister who forms a government and seeks confidence in both chambers. A next-prime-minister market is not a direct national presidential ballot.
400 Chamber of Deputies seats · 201 is more than half of the full chamber. This neutral seat diagram illustrates chamber size; it does not assign winners or model confidence-vote rules.
Selected parties: Fratelli d’Italia · Democratic Party · Five Star Movement · Lega · Forza Italia · Azione · Italia Viva · Green and Left Alliance
FEATURED MARKET · national · Election outcome
Will Futuro Nazionale get at least 3% of the vote in the next Italian general elections?
THE RACE OVER TIME
How the markets have moved
Historical prices retain each source’s metric: Kalshi daily bid/ask midpoint, Polymarket outcome price, and ForecastEx daily close. Gemini and PredictIt show stored daily bid/ask observations where older provider history is unavailable. ForecastEx file dates use a 12:00 UTC display anchor. Lines join available observations; missing dates are not filled.
Accessible chart data
| Source | Outcome | UTC time | Price |
|---|
Select up to four outcomes to compare their histories. Listings can represent people, parties, election dates or leadership changes; they do not establish candidacy or eligibility. Prices from separate contracts are not averaged. Nomination and general-election odds answer different questions.
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Names are matched only by case, spacing and punctuation. Provider-specific wording and resolution rules remain available through each contract link. Market listings reflect the verified catalog dated 2026-10-25.
Full question, source contracts & rules ↗Questions the markets cover
Current linked questions cover prime-minister succession and specific party vote thresholds; they do not provide a complete parliamentary seat or coalition forecast. Only verified provider contracts receive prices. Leadership-exit, election-timing, party-seat and election-winner questions are labeled separately. Markets may be absent for a future national election; regional markets are not substituted for a national forecast. This guide is an editorial snapshot, not continuous monitoring of officeholders or certified results.
Leadership / leaving office
Election outcome
national · Election outcome
Will Futuro Nazionale get at least 3% of the vote in the next Italian general elections? ↗
2 verified outcome contracts · Polymarket
national · Election outcome
Will Futuro Nazionale get more votes than Lega in the next Italian general elections? ↗
2 verified outcome contracts · Polymarket
20 issues in Italy
Our editorial watchlist is specific to this country. The numbers describe policy positions, not approval or a ranking of importance. Unreviewed politicians receive no inferred score.
Read all 20 issues and all ten steps for each scale ↗COMPARE THE RECORD
Where do they stand?
Servizio Sanitario Nazionale funding · 1: End national public funding for the Servizio Sanitario Nazionale · 10: At least double real per-person funding for the Servizio Sanitario Nazionale. Historical positions are dated in each profile; unreviewed positions stay blank.
Each score links to its politician’s evidence and full 10-step rubric. No overall ideological ranking.
Politicians & electoral histories
Primary sources & review
Editorial guide reviewed 2026-10-25. Market quote dates appear beside each source. How we source and compare data ↗