G7 NATION · COUNTRY GUIDE
Japan
Politics by the numbers.
SOURCE COVERAGE
What can you compare?
Verified outcome contracts in the catalog, not vote shares or independent forecasts. Zero means no verified contract from that provider. Quotes and history appear when collected; a listing alone does not establish an active quote.
NEXT NATIONAL CYCLE
House of Councillors half-renewal cycle: 2028; the lower house can be dissolved early
Previous: February 2026 House of Representatives election
GOVERNMENT SNAPSHOT
Sanae Takaichi
Head of government · reviewed 2026-10-25
How the election works
Parliamentary constitutional monarchy with a bicameral National Diet.
The lower house combines single-member districts and proportional regional blocks. Councillors have six-year terms, with half elected every three years.
The Diet designates the prime minister. Leadership changes can occur without a general election. The lower-house term is four years unless dissolved earlier.
465 House of Representatives seats · 233 is more than half of the full chamber. This neutral seat diagram illustrates chamber size; it does not assign winners or model confidence-vote rules.
Selected parties: Liberal Democratic Party · Japan Innovation Party · Constitutional Democratic Party · Democratic Party for the People · Komeito · Japanese Communist Party · Reiwa Shinsengumi · Sanseitō
FEATURED MARKET · national · Leadership / leaving office
Sanae Takaichi out as Prime Minister of Japan in 2026?
THE RACE OVER TIME
How the markets have moved
Historical prices retain each source’s metric: Kalshi daily bid/ask midpoint, Polymarket outcome price, and ForecastEx daily close. Gemini and PredictIt show stored daily bid/ask observations where older provider history is unavailable. ForecastEx file dates use a 12:00 UTC display anchor. Lines join available observations; missing dates are not filled.
Accessible chart data
| Source | Outcome | UTC time | Price |
|---|
Select up to four outcomes to compare their histories. Listings can represent people, parties, election dates or leadership changes; they do not establish candidacy or eligibility. Prices from separate contracts are not averaged. Nomination and general-election odds answer different questions.
Loading market prices…
Names are matched only by case, spacing and punctuation. Provider-specific wording and resolution rules remain available through each contract link. Market listings reflect the verified catalog dated 2026-10-25.
Full question, source contracts & rules ↗Questions the markets cover
The verified catalog currently covers Takaichi leaving office. It does not contain a verified national election-winner contract. Only verified provider contracts receive prices. Leadership-exit, election-timing, party-seat and election-winner questions are labeled separately. Markets may be absent for a future national election; regional markets are not substituted for a national forecast. This guide is an editorial snapshot, not continuous monitoring of officeholders or certified results.
Leadership / leaving office
20 issues in Japan
Our editorial watchlist is specific to this country. The numbers describe policy positions, not approval or a ranking of importance. Unreviewed politicians receive no inferred score.
Read all 20 issues and all ten steps for each scale ↗COMPARE THE RECORD
Where do they stand?
Restrictions on overseas military deployment · 1: No special legal restrictions on overseas deployment of the Self-Defense Forces · 10: Complete prohibition of overseas deployment of the Self-Defense Forces. Historical positions are dated in each profile; unreviewed positions stay blank.
Each score links to its politician’s evidence and full 10-step rubric. No overall ideological ranking.
Politicians & electoral histories
Primary sources & review
- Diet structure and constitutional terms ↗
- February 2026 prime-minister designation ↗
- September 2026 cabinet record ↗
- House membership and chamber size ↗
- House of Representatives · Takaichi member profile ↗
Editorial guide reviewed 2026-10-25. Market quote dates appear beside each source. How we source and compare data ↗