United Kingdom · national · leadership
Andy Burnham out as UK PM by...?
Andy Burnham out as UK PM by...?
THE RACE OVER TIME
How the markets have moved
Historical prices retain each source’s metric: Kalshi daily bid/ask midpoint, Polymarket outcome price, and ForecastEx daily close. Gemini and PredictIt show stored daily bid/ask observations where older provider history is unavailable. ForecastEx file dates use a 12:00 UTC display anchor. Lines join available observations; missing dates are not filled.
Accessible chart data
| Source | Outcome | UTC time | Price |
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Select up to four outcomes to compare their histories. Listings can represent people, parties, election dates or leadership changes; they do not establish candidacy or eligibility. Prices from separate contracts are not averaged. Nomination and general-election odds answer different questions.
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Names are matched only by case, spacing and punctuation. Provider-specific wording and resolution rules remain available through each contract link. Market listings reflect the verified catalog dated 2026-10-25.
Understanding this election’s prices
These contracts concern “Andy Burnham out as UK PM by...?”. Question type: leadership. We retain the original provider questions and settlement rules. Winning an election, leading a government, leaving office and calling an election are separate outcomes. Regional results do not establish a national winner.
The outcome list represents provider listings. A party market is not a direct popular election for prime minister. Contract prices may reflect different deadlines and settlement criteria; read the rules before comparing them. No prices are converted into vote shares.
Contract catalog checked 2026-10-25. Read the full methodology ↗
Original contract rules
Polymarket · Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Andy Burnham's departure as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom is officially announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The departure will be considered to be announced when Andy Burnham, the Government of the United Kingdom, or their authorized representatives publicly and definitively announce that Burnham has ceased or will cease to hold the position of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. Such an announcement will qualify regardless of when the specified person formally leaves the position. Announcements of the specified person's resignation, removal, or departure through other means all qualify. Only announcements which are framed as announcing a departure intended to be effective within 18 months of the date of the announcement will qualify (e.g., neither "I will leave office in 2 years," nor "I will not be in office forever," would qualify). Announcements of temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person's duties in the specified position do not qualify. The following do not qualify as public and definitive announcements: statements that the specified person is considering or open to departing; conditional statements that the specified person will depart only if certain conditions are met; the announcement of an offer of resignation that requires acceptance and remains pending or has been refused; media reports that the specified person plans to depart; statements made in sarcasm or jest; and statements by persons other than the specified person, the relevant authority governing the specified position, or their respective authorized representatives. If the specified person holds the specified position on a predefined term with a scheduled end date, only announcements that they will depart the position prior to the scheduled end of their term qualify. If the specified person formally ceases to hold the specified position before the end of their scheduled term without a qualifying announcement, the market will resolve to "Yes" if a consensus of credible reporting confirms the departure by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Andy Burnham and the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Original contract ↗Polymarket · No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Andy Burnham's departure as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom is officially announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The departure will be considered to be announced when Andy Burnham, the Government of the United Kingdom, or their authorized representatives publicly and definitively announce that Burnham has ceased or will cease to hold the position of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. Such an announcement will qualify regardless of when the specified person formally leaves the position. Announcements of the specified person's resignation, removal, or departure through other means all qualify. Only announcements which are framed as announcing a departure intended to be effective within 18 months of the date of the announcement will qualify (e.g., neither "I will leave office in 2 years," nor "I will not be in office forever," would qualify). Announcements of temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person's duties in the specified position do not qualify. The following do not qualify as public and definitive announcements: statements that the specified person is considering or open to departing; conditional statements that the specified person will depart only if certain conditions are met; the announcement of an offer of resignation that requires acceptance and remains pending or has been refused; media reports that the specified person plans to depart; statements made in sarcasm or jest; and statements by persons other than the specified person, the relevant authority governing the specified position, or their respective authorized representatives. If the specified person holds the specified position on a predefined term with a scheduled end date, only announcements that they will depart the position prior to the scheduled end of their term qualify. If the specified person formally ceases to hold the specified position before the end of their scheduled term without a qualifying announcement, the market will resolve to "Yes" if a consensus of credible reporting confirms the departure by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Andy Burnham and the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Original contract ↗