G7 NATION · COUNTRY GUIDE
United Kingdom
Politics by the numbers.
SOURCE COVERAGE
What can you compare?
Verified outcome contracts in the catalog, not vote shares or independent forecasts. Zero means no verified contract from that provider. Quotes and history appear when collected; a listing alone does not establish an active quote.
NEXT NATIONAL CYCLE
Next general election due no later than August 2029; an earlier election is possible
Previous: 4 July 2024 general election
GOVERNMENT SNAPSHOT
Andy Burnham
Head of government · reviewed 2026-10-25
How the election works
Parliamentary democracy and constitutional monarchy, with devolved institutions in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.
Each Commons constituency elects one MP by single-member plurality. A party winning the most seats need not win the most votes nationally.
Government formation depends on confidence in the Commons. The next prime minister, the largest party and a parliamentary majority are different questions.
650 House of Commons seats · 326 is more than half of the full chamber. This neutral seat diagram illustrates chamber size; it does not assign winners or model confidence-vote rules.
Selected parties: Labour · Conservatives · Reform UK · Liberal Democrats · Green parties · Scottish National Party · Plaid Cymru · Northern Ireland parties
FEATURED MARKET · national · Election outcome
Which party will win the next UK general election?
THE RACE OVER TIME
How the markets have moved
Historical prices retain each source’s metric: Kalshi daily bid/ask midpoint, Polymarket outcome price, and ForecastEx daily close. Gemini and PredictIt show stored daily bid/ask observations where older provider history is unavailable. ForecastEx file dates use a 12:00 UTC display anchor. Lines join available observations; missing dates are not filled.
Accessible chart data
| Source | Outcome | UTC time | Price |
|---|
Select up to four outcomes to compare their histories. Listings can represent people, parties, election dates or leadership changes; they do not establish candidacy or eligibility. Prices from separate contracts are not averaged. Nomination and general-election odds answer different questions.
Loading market prices…
Names are matched only by case, spacing and punctuation. Provider-specific wording and resolution rules remain available through each contract link. Market listings reflect the verified catalog dated 2026-10-25.
Full question, source contracts & rules ↗Questions the markets cover
The national Gemini question concerns the party receiving the most Commons seats, which is different from winning a majority or supplying the prime minister. Other linked questions concern leadership and by-election timing. Only verified provider contracts receive prices. Leadership-exit, election-timing, party-seat and election-winner questions are labeled separately. Markets may be absent for a future national election; regional markets are not substituted for a national forecast. This guide is an editorial snapshot, not continuous monitoring of officeholders or certified results.
Election timing
national · Election timing
How many UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026? ↗
5 verified outcome contracts · Polymarket
regional · Election timing
Another Clacton by-election called in 2026? ↗
2 verified outcome contracts · Polymarket
national · Election timing
Next UK by-election called by…? ↗
2 verified outcome contracts · Polymarket
Leadership / leaving office
national · Leadership / leaving office
Andy Burnham out as UK PM by...? ↗
2 verified outcome contracts · Polymarket
national · Leadership / leaving office
Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by...? ↗
2 verified outcome contracts · Polymarket
national · Leadership / leaving office
How many UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027? ↗
3 verified outcome contracts · Polymarket
national · Leadership / leaving office
Who will be the first to leave the Burnham Cabinet? ↗
22 verified outcome contracts · Polymarket
Election outcome
20 issues in United Kingdom
Our editorial watchlist is specific to this country. The numbers describe policy positions, not approval or a ranking of importance. Unreviewed politicians receive no inferred score.
Read all 20 issues and all ten steps for each scale ↗COMPARE THE RECORD
Where do they stand?
NHS funding · 1: End national public funding for the National Health Service · 10: At least double real per-person funding for the National Health Service. Historical positions are dated in each profile; unreviewed positions stay blank.
Each score links to its politician’s evidence and full 10-step rubric. No overall ideological ranking.
Politicians & electoral histories
Primary sources & review
Editorial guide reviewed 2026-10-25. Market quote dates appear beside each source. How we source and compare data ↗