United Kingdom · national · election
Which party will win the next UK general election?
Which party will win the next UK general election?
THE RACE OVER TIME
How the markets have moved
Historical prices retain each source’s metric: Kalshi daily bid/ask midpoint, Polymarket outcome price, and ForecastEx daily close. Gemini and PredictIt show stored daily bid/ask observations where older provider history is unavailable. ForecastEx file dates use a 12:00 UTC display anchor. Lines join available observations; missing dates are not filled.
Accessible chart data
| Source | Outcome | UTC time | Price |
|---|
Select up to four outcomes to compare their histories. Listings can represent people, parties, election dates or leadership changes; they do not establish candidacy or eligibility. Prices from separate contracts are not averaged. Nomination and general-election odds answer different questions.
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Names are matched only by case, spacing and punctuation. Provider-specific wording and resolution rules remain available through each contract link. Market listings reflect the verified catalog dated 2026-10-25.
Understanding this election’s prices
These contracts concern “Which party will win the next UK general election?”. Question type: election. We retain the original provider questions and settlement rules. Winning an election, leading a government, leaving office and calling an election are separate outcomes. Regional results do not establish a national winner.
The outcome list represents provider listings. A party market is not a direct popular election for prime minister. Contract prices may reflect different deadlines and settlement criteria; read the rules before comparing them. No prices are converted into vote shares.
Contract catalog checked 2026-10-25. Read the full methodology ↗
Original contract rules
Gemini · Labour Party
If the Labour party receives the most seats in the next UK general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from The New York Times and the House of Commons. If two parties tie in seat count, then the party with the highest percentage of the vote will resolve to Yes and the others will resolve to No. Note: this event is mutually exclusive. Read the full contract [terms & conditions](https://cdn.builder.io/o/assets%2F1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba%2Fd87e2bb2cb084a0bb9d5936394a9f233?alt=media&token=01422eba-fddb-496b-bd1f-fcb568ad5383&apiKey=1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba).
Original contract ↗Gemini · Reform Party
If the Reform party receives the most seats in the next UK general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from The New York Times and the House of Commons. If two parties tie in seat count, then the party with the highest percentage of the vote will resolve to Yes and the others will resolve to No. Note: this event is mutually exclusive. Read the full contract [terms & conditions](https://cdn.builder.io/o/assets%2F1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba%2Fd87e2bb2cb084a0bb9d5936394a9f233?alt=media&token=01422eba-fddb-496b-bd1f-fcb568ad5383&apiKey=1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba).
Original contract ↗Gemini · Conservative Party
If the Conservative party receives the most seats in the next UK general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from The New York Times and the House of Commons. If two parties tie in seat count, then the party with the highest percentage of the vote will resolve to Yes and the others will resolve to No. Note: this event is mutually exclusive. Read the full contract [terms & conditions](https://cdn.builder.io/o/assets%2F1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba%2Fd87e2bb2cb084a0bb9d5936394a9f233?alt=media&token=01422eba-fddb-496b-bd1f-fcb568ad5383&apiKey=1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba).
Original contract ↗Gemini · Restore Britain Party
If the Restore Britan party receives the most seats in the next UK general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from The New York Times and the House of Commons. If two parties tie in seat count, then the party with the highest percentage of the vote will resolve to Yes and the others will resolve to No. Note: this event is mutually exclusive. Read the full contract [terms & conditions](https://cdn.builder.io/o/assets%2F1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba%2Fd87e2bb2cb084a0bb9d5936394a9f233?alt=media&token=01422eba-fddb-496b-bd1f-fcb568ad5383&apiKey=1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba).
Original contract ↗Gemini · Green Party
If the Green party receives the most seats in the next UK general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from The New York Times and the House of Commons. If two parties tie in seat count, then the party with the highest percentage of the vote will resolve to Yes and the others will resolve to No. Note: this event is mutually exclusive. Read the full contract [terms & conditions](https://cdn.builder.io/o/assets%2F1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba%2Fd87e2bb2cb084a0bb9d5936394a9f233?alt=media&token=01422eba-fddb-496b-bd1f-fcb568ad5383&apiKey=1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba).
Original contract ↗Gemini · Liberal Democratic Party
If the Liberal Democratic party receives the most seats in the next UK general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from The New York Times and the House of Commons. If two parties tie in seat count, then the party with the highest percentage of the vote will resolve to Yes and the others will resolve to No. Note: this event is mutually exclusive. Read the full contract [terms & conditions](https://cdn.builder.io/o/assets%2F1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba%2Fd87e2bb2cb084a0bb9d5936394a9f233?alt=media&token=01422eba-fddb-496b-bd1f-fcb568ad5383&apiKey=1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba).
Original contract ↗