Georgia voters go to the polls on Tuesday with two very different statewide contests at the top of the ballot. In the U.S. Senate race, every recent public poll reviewed by 567 Politics shows Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff [Funding: tracked education-related PAC receipts $10,000.00; energy-related PAC receipts $0.00 (2026 cycle; retrieved 2026-11-01; partial topic registry)] [FEC source] ahead of Republican Rep. Mike Collins [Funding: tracked education-related PAC receipts $0.00; energy-related PAC receipts $0.00 (2026 cycle; retrieved 2026-11-01; partial topic registry)] [FEC source], by margins of 8 to 15 points. In the race for governor, the same polls show Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms and Republican Rick Jackson within a few points of each other, inside the margin of error.
That gap between the two races is the main story of Georgia's final weekend. It suggests a sizable group of voters who plan to back Ossoff but are open to a Republican for governor, or who have not yet settled on a choice for the open seat. Gov. Brian Kemp [Funding: campaign funding data not verified] is term-limited, so the governor's race has no incumbent.
Turnout before Election Day also set a record. More than 2.8 million Georgians voted early or by mail, Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger [Funding: campaign funding data not verified] said, according to FOX 5 Atlanta. This story sets out what the final polls found, how they were done, what the candidates said in their closing days and what the early-vote numbers can and cannot tell us. Live results will appear on our Georgia Senate race page and Georgia governor race page.
The final polls
Three late polls released their full methodology, and we opened each one. They are not identical in method, and none was conducted by a campaign.
| Poll (field dates) | Voters | Senate | Governor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Echelon Insights for NetChoice (Oct. 16–23) | 508 likely | Ossoff 55, Collins 40 | Bottoms 49, Jackson 48 |
| State Navigate (Oct. 23–27) | 679 likely | Not asked | Bottoms 50, Jackson 47 |
| AJC / University of Georgia (Oct. 7–15) | 1,000 likely | Ossoff 48, Collins 40 | Jackson 46, Bottoms 45 |
type: column
title: Georgia governor's race in three final polls
note: Percent of likely voters. Each poll's margin of error is larger than the gap between the candidates.
suffix: %
source: [Echelon Insights memo for NetChoice](https://netchoice.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/Echelon-Insights-Release-Memo.pdf), [State Navigate](https://projects.statenavigate.com/interactives/ga/statewide-poll-october-2026/georgia-statewide-poll-october-23-27-2026.pdf), [Atlanta Journal-Constitution](https://www.ajc.com/politics/2026/10/rick-jackson-has-outspent-keisha-lance-bottoms-but-democratic-enthusiasm-has-the-race-knotted/)
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Poll | Bottoms (D) | Jackson (R)
Echelon Insights (Oct. 16-23) | 49 | 48
State Navigate (Oct. 23-27) | 50 | 47
AJC/UGA (Oct. 7-15) | 45 | 46
Echelon Insights: a wide Senate lead and a 1-point governor's race
Echelon Insights, a Republican polling firm, surveyed likely voters in six states from Oct. 16 to 23 for NetChoice, a technology-industry trade group. Its release memo, dated Oct. 26, gives Ossoff 55% and Collins 40%, with 3% for Libertarian candidate Buckley. In the governor's race, Bottoms had 49% and Jackson 48%. The Georgia sample was 508 likely voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 5.2 points, according to the poll's listing on 270toWin. That margin is large, so the governor's result is a statistical tie.
The memo described the Georgia Senate race as a clear Democratic lead and the governor's race as within the margin of error. The same survey found that inflation and the cost of living was a top issue for 55% of likely voters nationwide and the leading issue in each of its six oversampled states.
The poll also asked about two Georgia Public Service Commission seats. Democrat Peter Hubbard led Republican Fitz Johnson [Funding: local campaign funding not researched; FEC does not cover this country] 47% to 45% in District 3, and Democrat Shelia Edwards led Republican Josh Tolbert 48% to 46% in District 5. Both leads are well inside the margin of error.
State Navigate: Bottoms up 3, Democrats ahead down the ballot
State Navigate, a nonpartisan nonprofit that studies state legislatures, surveyed 679 likely voters from Oct. 23 to 27. Voters were sent text messages that linked to an online survey, using a sample drawn from the L2 voter file. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.8 points. The group said the poll was not sponsored by any candidate or campaign committee. It did not ask about the Senate race.
With voters who lean toward a candidate included, Bottoms led Jackson 50% to 47%. Trump's job approval among Georgia likely voters was 42%, with 57% disapproving. Democrats also led narrowly for the other open statewide offices on the ballot:
- Lieutenant governor: Josh McLaurin [Funding: campaign funding data not verified] (D) 49%, Greg Dolezal [Funding: campaign funding data not verified] (R) 45%
- Secretary of state: Penny Brown Reynolds (D) 49%, Tim Fleming (R) 45%
- Attorney general: Tanya Miller (D) 49%, Brian Strickland [Funding: campaign funding data not verified] (R) 46%
- State House generic ballot: Democrats 51%, Republicans 44%
Each of those leads is close to or within the poll's margin of error.
The poll shows a sharply divided map. Outside metro Atlanta, Jackson led 63% to 34%. In what State Navigate calls Inner Atlanta, Bottoms led 77% to 18%. The group's founder, Chaz Nuttycombe, wrote that the race had moved only about 1 point toward Jackson since its July poll, even though "Jackson has opened up a large spending advantage." He concluded, "So far, his money has not changed the race." That is the pollster's reading of two surveys, not a measure of ad effects.
Nuttycombe also wrote that Democrats were getting more of their less reliable voters to cast ballots early. He reported that 66% of Democrats who vote only some of the time said they had already voted, compared with 27% of Republicans in the same group. He added that "Republicans' irregular voters may still turn out on Election Day, and Jackson's path runs through them." He cautioned that groups with fewer than 100 respondents should be read as directional.
AJC and the University of Georgia: an 8-point Senate lead, a 1-point governor's race
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll, conducted with the University of Georgia, interviewed 1,000 likely voters by telephone from Oct. 7 to 15. Its margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 points. It is the oldest of the three surveys. Its fieldwork ended two days after early voting began on Oct. 13.
The AJC reported that Ossoff led Collins 48% to 40%, with 12% undecided. In the governor's race, the paper found Jackson at 46% and Bottoms at 45%, with 8% undecided. Each candidate held more than nine in ten voters of their own party: 94% of Republicans backed Jackson and 93% of Democrats backed Bottoms. The headline on the governor's poll said Jackson had outspent Bottoms but that Democratic enthusiasm had the race knotted.
What the averages show
270toWin's polling averages, which include several surveys whose full methodology we did not review, point the same way. Its Senate average put Ossoff at 53.3% and Collins at 43.5%. Its governor average had Jackson at 48.8% and Bottoms at 47.6%, a lead of about 1 point for the Republican. The governor average and the State Navigate result point in opposite directions, but both are within the polls' error.
Why the two races differ
The polls do not explain the gap on their own, but several factors are visible in the reporting.
Incumbency. Ossoff is seeking his first reelection after nearly six years in the Senate. The governor's seat is open, so neither candidate has a record as governor to run on.
Money. Jackson, a health care staffing executive, has put large amounts of his own fortune into the race. WRDW-TV reported that he broke every previous self-funding record for a Georgia candidate for governor. The station reported that Bottoms held back much of her advertising money until early voting opened.
Ties to Trump. Atlanta News First reported that Collins, the author of the Laken Riley Act, has stayed close to President Donald Trump, appearing with him at recent rallies in Dalton and Perry. Bottoms has criticized Jackson for pledging to be "Trump's favorite governor," according to the same report. WRDW said Jackson has tried to rally Trump's supporters while keeping enough distance from the administration to appeal to suburban and independent voters. [Funding: campaign funding data not verified]
The polls do not measure how much each of these matters. Undecided voters, who made up 12% of the AJC Senate sample and 8% of its governor sample, could also change the picture.
The closing arguments
Both governor candidates have built their final pitches around the cost of living, though they propose different tools.
Bottoms' grocery plan would let cities and counties eliminate or temporarily suspend their local sales taxes on groceries and family essentials such as diapers and baby formula, backed by a $250 million state fund. Her campaign's DRIVE plan would end the state's 2.25% tax on auto insurance premiums and roll the gas tax back to 28 cents a gallon. She has also proposed exempting public schoolteachers from state income tax, according to the AJC's comparison of the candidates' tax plans. On the final weekend, she told supporters, "With one vote at a time, we are going to bring hope back to Georgia," GPB reported.
Jackson's action plan says he would "freeze property taxes immediately" and "cut the state income tax in half within 4 years." It also promises to freeze tuition at public colleges and technical schools. At a Sunday night rally in Cumming, Jackson said, "We will build on the things that brought opportunity here and get after the challenges still holding families back," FOX 5 Atlanta reported. He also attacked Bottoms' record as Atlanta mayor, saying, "bad mayors don't make good governors." His campaign scheduled Monday stops in Canton, Perry, Albany, Savannah and Augusta.
In the Senate race, both candidates spoke about prices and turnout. Campaigning in Ringgold, Collins blamed inflation on "Bidenomics" and said Ossoff and the Democrats put it into effect, WJCL reported. "Get out and go vote. It's a midterm election. It's all about turnout," he said. Ossoff, appearing with Sen. Raphael Warnock in Douglasville, said Georgia is "the pivotal battleground state in the country." He added: "Georgians are suffering from record high prices. We've been lied into a war in the Middle East. These tariffs are crushing Georgia families and businesses, and farmers." He said his campaign was seeing "very strong youth turnout." [Funding: tracked education-related PAC receipts $0.00; energy-related PAC receipts $0.00 (2026 cycle; retrieved 2026-11-02; partial topic registry)] [FEC source]
What the early vote shows
Georgia Votes, an independent tracker that compiles state voter-file data, counted 2,826,388 ballots cast as of Monday morning. That included 2,705,110 early in-person votes and 121,278 mail ballots. The site said that was 13% more than at the same point in the 2022 general election.
The makeup of the early electorate has shifted. White voters were 52.5% of early voters, down from 58.2% at this point in 2022, the tracker said. Black voters were 32.4%, up from 30.2%. Voters aged 65 and older were the largest age group, at 36.3%. About 22.5% of this year's early voters did not vote at all in the 2022 general election.
Those figures describe who has voted, not how they voted. Georgia does not register voters by party, so early turnout alone cannot show which candidate is ahead. Georgia Republican Party Chair Josh McCown said victory would hinge on Election Day turnout, according to WRDW, while Democratic Party Chair Charlie Bailey described his party as cautiously optimistic.
For context on how early voting compares in other states, see our report on early voting in Senate battlegrounds. National polls also show a Democratic lead on the congressional ballot, as we reported in our roundup of the final national polls.
What to watch on Tuesday
Polls are open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. Eastern time, and anyone in line at 7 p.m. may vote. Mail ballots must reach county election offices by 7 p.m.; under Georgia law, ballots that arrive later are not counted regardless of postmark, Atlanta News First reported.
Georgia requires a runoff if no candidate wins a majority of the vote, as happened in the 2022 Senate race. With a Libertarian on the Senate ballot, a very close race could be extended. The polls above suggest the governor's race is the likelier of the two to be close.
The other statewide races, including lieutenant governor, secretary of state and attorney general, will show whether any lead at the top of the ticket carries down the ballot. Democrats have not won those offices in about 20 years, WRDW noted.
How we reported this
We opened each pollster's own release, or the newspaper report for the AJC poll, for the figures above. The AJC's full article text was not available to us beyond its headlines and methodology, so we report only those findings. We did not include polls whose original release we could not review, except through the 270toWin averages, which we identify as such. Our methodology page explains how 567 Politics handles polls and forecasts.