Two national polls released this week show Democrats ahead on the generic congressional ballot, with Election Day set for November 3. The NPR/PBS News/Marist Poll puts Democrats ahead by 8 points among likely voters. A Reuters/Ipsos survey taken a few days later puts the gap at 9 points. Neither poll measures how many seats each party will win.
What the Marist poll found
The Marist Poll asked: "If November's election for Congress were held today, which party's candidate are you more likely to vote for in your district?" Among likely voters, 52% chose the Democratic candidate and 44% the Republican. Among all registered voters, Democrats led by 10 points, down from 12 points in September. PBS News reported that the change is within the margin of error.
Other findings among likely voters:
- 40% approve of President Donald Trump's job performance and 59% disapprove.
- 44% say their vote for Congress is mainly a vote against Trump, 21% say it is mainly for him, and 35% say he is not a big factor.
- 77% are confident or very confident their state or local government will run fair and accurate elections.
- About 1 in 5 say they have already voted, and that group favors Democrats 68% to 31%, according to PBS News. Those who have not yet voted are split 48% to 48%.
On enthusiasm, PBS News reported that 71% of Democrats say they are very enthusiastic about voting, compared with 61% of Republicans and 48% of independents.
How the Marist poll was done
According to its methodology statement, Marist surveyed 1,289 registered voters on October 19 and 20, 2026, in partnership with NPR and PBS News. It reached 282 people by live phone interview, 740 by text and 267 online. Samples were drawn from the L2 voter database. Results were weighted by age, gender, income, race and ethnicity, and education. Likely voters are registered voters weighted by each person's estimated chance of voting.
The margin of error is plus or minus 3.7 points for registered voters and 3.8 points for likely voters. Marist notes that "there may be unmeasured factors in this or any other public opinion poll." The weighted sample of likely voters was 34% Democratic, 32% Republican and 30% independent.
How it compares with Reuters/Ipsos
A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted October 22 to 26 found 53% of likely voters would vote for or lean to the Democratic candidate, compared with 44% for the Republican. That poll surveyed 1,679 adults through the online, probability-based KnowledgePanel. Its stated margin of error, plus or minus 2.4 points, applies to all adults. Ipsos says the margin is larger for smaller groups, such as likely voters, but does not list it in the release.
The two polls differ in some respects. Ipsos found Trump's approval at 32% among all adults, while Marist found 40% among likely voters and 38% among registered voters. These are different populations, so the numbers are not directly comparable. The question wording also differs, since Ipsos counts people who "lean" to a party.
What each side takes from the numbers
Democrats. Democratic strategist Joel Payne told PBS News that "the House feels fairly settled for Democrats." He called the Senate closer, with "a slight lean to Democrats taking the Senate back." Payne also said that "accountability and opposition to Trump is enough to get out your normal midterm majority to win for Democrats."
Republicans. Republican strategist Melik Abdul told PBS News, "It's not looking so great for us," and called the House "very much out of our reach." He said he believes Republicans will keep the Senate, possibly by a seat or two. "I don't think it will be the blue wave that people are suspecting," he said. Republicans are also counting on Election Day turnout. Half of Republican likely voters plan to vote in person on November 3, compared with 31% of Democrats, PBS News reported.
Weighing the claims
A generic ballot measures national preference, not results in 435 separate House races or in each Senate contest. Seat outcomes depend on which districts and states the votes come from. Early-vote figures in the Marist poll describe people who have already voted, a group that leans Democratic in this survey. Republicans expect their voters to make up ground on Election Day, so an early lead may narrow.
History offers one comparison, not a forecast. PBS News noted that Democrats led by 9 points among likely voters in Marist's October 2018 poll, before gaining 40 House seats. That is a single prior election, and conditions differ. For more on the last week of the campaign, see our report on the final stretch of the midterms and the US election guide. Our approach to polls is explained in our methodology.
This AI-assisted report was prepared on October 28, 2026, from the poll releases and reporting linked above.
Photo and reporting note
File image for context. It shows the west front of the U.S. Capitol in Washington. Photo: Architect of the Capitol, edited by O.J., original file, in the public domain. Cropped for publication.
