Missouri's Amendment 3 abortion vote is tied in final poll as map and initiative measures share the ballot

Missouri voters will decide Tuesday whether to bring back the state's abortion ban, two years after they voted to end it. The measure, Amendment 3, is tied in the most recent public poll.

The same ballot asks voters about two other high-stakes questions. Proposition A is a referendum on the congressional map that Republican lawmakers drew in 2025. Amendment 6 would make it much harder for the legislature to change laws that voters pass by petition. Campaigns on both sides have linked the three measures in their final pitches, framing the election as a fight over who holds power in Missouri.

Polls in Missouri are open from 6 a.m. to 7 p.m. Central time.

Amendment 3: abortion and care for transgender minors

Amendment 3 was placed on the ballot by the Republican-led legislature. It would repeal the reproductive rights amendment that voters approved in November 2024 with 51.6% of the vote. In 2024, Missouri became the first state to overturn an abortion ban at the ballot box, the Missouri Independent reported.

The ballot question, as reproduced by Ballotpedia, asks whether the constitution should be amended to:

• repeal the 2024 amendment providing reproductive health care rights, including abortion through fetal viability;
• allow abortions for rape and incest (under 12 weeks of pregnancy), medical emergencies and fetal anomalies;
• allow laws regulating abortion;
• ensure parental consent for minors' abortions; and
• prohibit gender transition procedures for minors.

The second part matters because it would put a ban on gender transition care for minors into the state constitution. State law already bans gender transition surgery for minors. It also bars minors from starting cross-sex hormones or puberty blockers, but that part of the law is set to expire in August 2027, the Independent reported. Lawmakers have discussed making it permanent.

The wording was fought over in court. In September 2025, Cole County Judge Daniel Green ruled that the secretary of state's first summary was misleading and had to be rewritten. In December, the Missouri Court of Appeals found the revised wording still did not clearly tell voters that the measure would repeal and replace the 2024 amendment, and it certified new ballot language.

Passing Amendment 3 would also let the state bring back regulations on abortion providers that Jackson County Circuit Judge Jerri Zhang struck down this summer. Those included a 72-hour waiting period, special licensing rules for clinics and a requirement that doctors have hospital admitting privileges. Zhang upheld other rules, including that medication abortion be given in person and that only doctors may perform abortions or prescribe abortion pills.

The polls

• Yes
• No

0%

20%

40%

60%

SLU/YouGov Feb.Yes: 50%No: 39%

SLU/YouGov Aug.Yes: 43%No: 44%

Remington Oct.Yes: 43%No: 43%

SLU/YouGov Feb.SLU/YouGov Aug.Remington Oct.

Source: SLU/YouGov, Remington Research/Missouri Scout

Show the numbers

Poll	Yes	No
SLU/YouGov Feb.	50%	39%
SLU/YouGov Aug.	43%	44%
Remington Oct.	43%	43%

The latest public poll was conducted by Remington Research Group for the political newsletter Missouri Scout. It surveyed 684 likely general-election voters on Oct. 14 and 15. It found 43% planned to vote for Amendment 3 and 43% against. The margin of error was 3.7 points. The firm said it weighted the survey to match expected turnout. Its published summary did not say whether voters were reached by phone, text or online.

The Saint Louis University/YouGov poll interviewed 900 likely voters online from Aug. 13 to 24. It found 43% support and 44% opposition, with 13% unsure. Its margin of error was 4.09 points. YouGov draws respondents from an opt-in online panel and weights them by gender, age, race and education to match Missouri voters.

In February, the same poll found Amendment 3 ahead 50% to 39%, using the revised weighting. "The decline in support crossed party lines," said Steven Rogers, the poll's director. He said Republican support fell 7 points to 65% between February and August.

A tie in two polls taken weeks before Election Day does not show which side will win. About 1 in 7 voters was undecided in each.

The final pitch

The Independent reported that both campaigns have tied Amendment 3 to the other measures.

At a Yes on 3 rally in Arnold on Oct. 27, Attorney General Catherine Hanaway criticized Zhang's ruling. She asked supporters if they would protect women and "stand up to that judge who overruled every single safety protection for women." Former Attorney General Andrew Bailey, who recently left the FBI, told the crowd that "voters were deceived by the lie behind reproductive freedom a few years back." Signs at the rally read: "No on 6. Tell billionaires keep their paws off our laws."

At a Stop the Ban rally in St. Louis on Oct. 24, signs read: "Vote No on 3. Vote No on A. Voters decide. Not politicians." Nancy O'Brian, a volunteer with Abortion Action Missouri, rejected the idea that voters were misled in 2024. "They say we didn't know what we were doing when we voted to legalize abortion," she said. "We know how Missourians feel about abortion because we already asked them."

Supporters and opponents also disagree about whether the exceptions would work in practice. Some doctors, lawyers and patients who lived under Missouri's earlier ban told the Independent that the exceptions could be hard to apply, leaving doctors unsure when they may act. Dr. Sarah Florence, a family physician who backs the amendment, said the language does not put women's health at risk. Hanaway called the opposition's message on emergencies "a flat out lie" in an interview hosted by the Family Research Council.

Money

Stop the Ban, the main campaign against Amendment 3, has raised more than $27 million this year, the Independent reported. Most of it has come from large out-of-state donors and progressive nonprofits that do not have to disclose their donors.

Her Health, Her Future, the main campaign for the measure, had reported $6 million in contributions as of the Independent's Oct. 23 tally. The committee is tied to Gov. Mike Kehoe, and its campaign materials list Claudia Kehoe, the governor's wife, as treasurer. It had paid for $1.2 million in broadcast ads.

Bailey and U.S. Sen. Josh Hawley$ set up a second supporting committee, Yes on Amendment 3. An Oct. 26 report to the Missouri Ethics Commission showed one donation to it, for $1 million, from America Next Inc. That is a conservative Louisiana-based nonprofit launched by former Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, the Independent reported. As of Oct. 23, Yes on Amendment 3 had spent $517,000 on broadcast ads. Through Oct. 23, Stop the Ban had bought $7.25 million of the $13.6 million in ballot-measure broadcast ads the Independent tracked.

Proposition A: the congressional map

Proposition A is a veto referendum on House Bill 1, the congressional map passed in a special session in 2025. A "yes" vote keeps the new map. A "no" vote repeals it and keeps the map drawn in 2022.

Republican leaders, including President Trump, pushed for Missouri to use a newly drawn map for the 2026 elections, KMBC reported. The new map splits Kansas City's 5th District, long held by Democratic Rep. Emanuel Cleaver$, according to KMBC's explainer. SLU's pollsters said it would likely shift the state's U.S. House delegation from six Republicans and two Democrats to seven Republicans and one Democrat.

Opponents organized as People Not Politicians and submitted more than 305,000 signatures in December 2025. Secretary of State Denny Hoskins rejected the referendum, calling it unconstitutional. As a result, the new map was used in the August primary. On Sept. 3, the Missouri Supreme Court ruled unanimously that the referendum was valid and that the map could not be used until voters approve it. The dispute reached the U.S. Supreme Court three times, KMBC reported, before a final ruling that the 2022 map must be used for Tuesday's election.

That means the Nov. 3 House races, including the 5th District race between Cleaver and Republican Rick Brattin, are being held under the 2022 lines. Proposition A decides which map Missouri uses in future elections.

The official ballot question asks whether voters approve the act that "repeals Missouri's existing congressional plan and replaces it with new congressional boundaries that keep more counties intact."

That wording may confuse some voters, SLU's pollsters said. In August, 35% said they would vote yes, 32% no, and 33% were not sure. SLU re-interviewed 305 people who had also answered in February, when the poll described the legislature's actions in more detail. Among those who had backed the new map then, only 48% said they would vote yes when shown the ballot wording. Nineteen percent switched to no and 33% became unsure. "Both campaigns, at least early on, will need to focus on educating voters about what a 'yes' and 'no' vote actually means," Rogers said.

People Not Politicians has raised nearly $11 million and bought $1.4 million in broadcast ads, the Independent reported Oct. 23. It has no active opposing committee. Amber Jones, a program manager with the nonprofit LeadMO who helped collect signatures, said: "A handful of powerful people shouldn't be able to rig the rules to protect themselves."

Amendment 6: protecting voter-passed laws

Today, if voters pass a law by initiative petition, the legislature can change or repeal it by simple majority votes and the governor's signature. Amendment 6 would change that. Lawmakers could only send a change to a voter-approved measure back to the ballot with 80% support in both the House and Senate, and voters would then have to approve it. The rule would cover measures passed since Jan. 1, 2010. Amendment 6 would also declare the initiative and referendum process a fundamental right and bar laws that make petitioning harder, according to Ballotpedia's summary.

Amendment 6 led in both recent polls. Remington found 46% for and 26% against. SLU/YouGov found 48% for, 21% against and 32% not sure in August. "Missourians have evidently not been happy with the legislature repeatedly trying to overturn the voice of voters who had approved ballot initiatives," said SLU political scientist Kenneth Warren.

The Independent noted the link to abortion. If Amendment 3 fails and Amendment 6 passes, it would be nearly impossible for the Republican-led legislature to put another abortion restriction before voters.

Yes on Amendment 6 has raised $5.5 million, almost all of it from labor unions, and spent $3.2 million on broadcast ads, the Independent reported. Respect Mo Voters, the committee that put the measure on the ballot, raised $1.5 million for that effort and another $400,000 since Sept. 30. It is focusing on get-out-the-vote work. MO Protect PAC, which opposes the measure, reported raising $40,000 during the fall campaign. Tim Jones, a Republican radio host and former Missouri House speaker, said Oct. 27 that the initiative petition process has become "an abhorrent abomination to our constitution."

Other measures

Voters will also see two more amendments, according to KMBC's ballot guide. Amendment 8 would require most counties to elect sheriffs to four-year terms. Another would create a Show-Me Prosperity Investment Fund for state tax reduction. Altogether, campaigns for this year's ballot measures had raised $59.6 million through Oct. 22, including money spent on signatures and court fights, the Independent found. That is well below the nearly $100 million spent on Missouri's 2024 ballot measures.

Differing perspectives

Amendment 3 divides Missourians over abortion, care for transgender minors and whether the legislature should ask voters to reconsider a decision they made two years ago. The perspectives section below sets out the main campaigns' arguments in their own words.

The wider picture

The Proposition A vote is part of a national fight over mid-decade redistricting, which we have followed in our coverage of House ratings and the final national polls. For turnout trends elsewhere, see our early-voting report. The SLU poll also found President Trump's approval among likely Missouri voters at 48% in August, the lowest it has recorded.

How we reported this

We read the SLU/YouGov release and the Missouri Scout poll summary ourselves. The Missouri secretary of state's website blocked our access, so the Amendment 3 ballot wording is from Ballotpedia, which reproduces the official text. Proposition A wording is from KMBC. Rally quotes and fundraising totals are from the Missouri Independent. Its money figures come from Missouri Ethics Commission reports and its own ad tracking, and some date from Oct. 23. We did not find a public poll of Proposition A taken after August. See our methodology for how we handle polls.

Differing perspectives

Should Missouri voters approve Amendment 3 and repeal the 2024 abortion-rights amendment?

Each position is summarized as its supporters make it, with equal weight and in alphabetical order. A summary is not an endorsement; the evidence for each is weighed in the story above.

• No: keep the 2024 vote and keep politicians out of medical decisions

  Who holds it: Stop the Ban, the main campaign against Amendment 3

  Stop the Ban says Amendment 3 would overturn what Missourians voted for just two years ago and ban abortion again in nearly all cases. In 2024, it says, voters ended the ban and made clear they do not want politicians making medical decisions for them and their families. It argues that voting no keeps Missouri's laws the same and keeps decisions about pregnancy and abortion between women, families and doctors. It says a no vote stops politicians from overturning the will of the people and taking control away from families.

  In their words: Stop the Ban Missouri ↗

• Yes: restore pro-life protections and protect children

  Who holds it: Her Health, Her Future, the main campaign for Amendment 3

  Her Health, Her Future says Amendment 3 would build on Missouri's tradition of standing for life and make the state's laws reflect what it calls Missourians' deeply held pro-life values. It says the measure would require parental consent before a minor has an abortion and restore health and safety standards for clinics, including qualified medical staff and proper cleanliness. It also says the amendment would protect children from what it calls harmful, sterilizing gender-transition procedures by removing the expiration date in current state law.

  In their words: Her Health, Her Future ↗