2026 · U.S. SENATE
Alaska.
What do the markets say?
Alaska U.S. Senate election, 2026. Compare each source’s prices and how they have changed.
THE RACE OVER TIME
How the markets have moved
Historical prices retain each source’s metric: Kalshi daily bid/ask midpoint, Polymarket outcome price, and ForecastEx daily close. Gemini and PredictIt show stored daily bid/ask observations where older provider history is unavailable. ForecastEx file dates use a 12:00 UTC display anchor. Lines join available observations; missing dates are not filled.
Accessible chart data
| Source | Outcome | UTC time | Price |
|---|
What each market says
INDEPENDENT CONTRACTS · NO AVERAGINGThe same race can have different resolution rules across sources. Each price below belongs to its own contract.
Kalshi
Source updated 10/16/2026, 1:41:27 PM ET
View contract at Kalshi ↗Question, identity & settlement rules
Will Republicans win the Senate race in Alaska?
SENATEAK-26-RIf a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Alaska for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source updated 10/16/2026, 1:41:27 PM ET
View contract at Kalshi ↗Question, identity & settlement rules
Will Democratics win the Senate race in Alaska?
SENATEAK-26-DIf a representative of the Democratic party is sworn in as a Senator of Alaska for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Polymarket
No verified contract for this race from Polymarket.
ForecastEx
No verified contract for this race from ForecastEx.
Gemini
YES bid/ask midpoint · daily observation
Collected during the scheduled daily refresh
View contract at Gemini ↗Question, identity & settlement rules
Alaska U.S. Senate election, 2026
GEMI-SEN26AK-MARYPELTOLAIf Mary Peltola wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Alaska, then this market resolves to Yes. Outcome should be verified from the applicable state election authority and widely reported national sources. This event is mutually exclusive within the Alaska Senate election. Read the full contract [terms & conditions](https://cdn.builder.io/o/assets%2F1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba%2Fd87e2bb2cb084a0bb9d5936394a9f233?alt=media&token=01422eba-fddb-496b-bd1f-fcb568ad5383&apiKey=1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba).
YES bid/ask midpoint · daily observation
Collected during the scheduled daily refresh
View contract at Gemini ↗Question, identity & settlement rules
Alaska U.S. Senate election, 2026
GEMI-SEN26AK-DANSULLIVANIf Dan Sullivan wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Alaska, then this market resolves to Yes. Outcome should be verified from the applicable state election authority and widely reported national sources. This event is mutually exclusive within the Alaska Senate election. Read the full contract [terms & conditions](https://cdn.builder.io/o/assets%2F1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba%2Fd87e2bb2cb084a0bb9d5936394a9f233?alt=media&token=01422eba-fddb-496b-bd1f-fcb568ad5383&apiKey=1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba).
PredictIt
YES bid/ask midpoint · daily observation
Collected during the scheduled daily refresh
View contract at PredictIt ↗Question, identity & settlement rules
Alaska U.S. Senate election, 2026
8271:32430Which party will win the 2026 US Senate election in Alaska? Outcome: Democratic (Peltola). Prices refer to this provider’s YES contract. The original market page contains the binding settlement rules; nomination, candidate and party questions remain separate.
YES bid/ask midpoint · daily observation
Collected during the scheduled daily refresh
View contract at PredictIt ↗Question, identity & settlement rules
Alaska U.S. Senate election, 2026
8271:32429Which party will win the 2026 US Senate election in Alaska? Outcome: GOP (S. Sullivan). Prices refer to this provider’s YES contract. The original market page contains the binding settlement rules; nomination, candidate and party questions remain separate.
YES bid/ask midpoint · daily observation
Collected during the scheduled daily refresh
View contract at PredictIt ↗Question, identity & settlement rules
Alaska U.S. Senate election, 2026
8271:32431Which party will win the 2026 US Senate election in Alaska? Outcome: Independent. Prices refer to this provider’s YES contract. The original market page contains the binding settlement rules; nomination, candidate and party questions remain separate.
Reading the Alaska election markets
These prices describe contracts about the alaska u.s. senate election, 2026, rather than the share of voters supporting a party. A 60% contract price is not a prediction of a 60% vote share.
Kalshi, Gemini and PredictIt use valid YES bid/ask midpoints. Polymarket uses its outcome-price feed. ForecastEx uses the most recently published daily closing price; its file date is shown. We show Democratic, Republican and any verified independent contracts separately, without forcing the prices to add up to 100%.
History comes from provider time series and observations stored by 567politics. If a provider is unavailable, available stored history is labeled. Missing data stays missing.
Contract mapping checked 2026-10-25. Full methodology ↗