2026 · U.S. SENATE
Arkansas.
What do the markets say?
Arkansas U.S. Senate election, 2026. Compare each source’s prices and how they have changed.
THE RACE OVER TIME
How the markets have moved
Historical prices retain each source’s metric: Kalshi daily bid/ask midpoint, Polymarket outcome price, and ForecastEx daily close. Gemini and PredictIt show stored daily bid/ask observations where older provider history is unavailable. ForecastEx file dates use a 12:00 UTC display anchor. Lines join available observations; missing dates are not filled.
Accessible chart data
| Source | Party | UTC time | Price |
|---|
What each market says
INDEPENDENT CONTRACTS · NO AVERAGINGThe same race can have different resolution rules across sources. Each price below belongs to its own contract.
Kalshi
Source updated 10/16/2026, 12:47:38 PM ET
View contract at Kalshi ↗Question, identity & settlement rules
Will Republicans win the Senate race in Arkansas?
SENATEAR-26-RIf a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Arkansas for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source updated 9/15/2026, 5:45:39 PM ET
View contract at Kalshi ↗Question, identity & settlement rules
Will Democratics win the Senate race in Arkansas?
SENATEAR-26-DIf a representative of the Democratic party is sworn in as a Senator of Arkansas for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Polymarket
Source updated 10/25/2026, 5:30:37 PM ET
View contract at Polymarket ↗Question, identity & settlement rules
Will the Democrats win the Arkansas Senate race in 2026?
630653:0This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Source updated 10/25/2026, 5:30:37 PM ET
View contract at Polymarket ↗Question, identity & settlement rules
Will the Republicans win the Arkansas Senate race in 2026?
630654:0This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
ForecastEx
No verified contract for this race from ForecastEx.
Gemini
YES bid/ask midpoint · daily observation
Collected during the scheduled daily refresh
View contract at Gemini ↗Question, identity & settlement rules
Arkansas U.S. Senate election, 2026
GEMI-SEN26AR-TOMCOTTONIf Tom Cotton wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Arkansas, then this market resolves to Yes. Outcome should be verified from the applicable state election authority and widely reported national sources. This event is mutually exclusive within the Arkansas Senate election. Read the full contract [terms & conditions](https://cdn.builder.io/o/assets%2F1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba%2Fd87e2bb2cb084a0bb9d5936394a9f233?alt=media&token=01422eba-fddb-496b-bd1f-fcb568ad5383&apiKey=1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba).
YES bid/ask midpoint · daily observation
Collected during the scheduled daily refresh
View contract at Gemini ↗Question, identity & settlement rules
Arkansas U.S. Senate election, 2026
GEMI-SEN26AR-HALLIESHOFFNERIf Hallie Shoffner wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Arkansas, then this market resolves to Yes. Outcome should be verified from the applicable state election authority and widely reported national sources. This event is mutually exclusive within the Arkansas Senate election. Read the full contract [terms & conditions](https://cdn.builder.io/o/assets%2F1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba%2Fd87e2bb2cb084a0bb9d5936394a9f233?alt=media&token=01422eba-fddb-496b-bd1f-fcb568ad5383&apiKey=1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba).
PredictIt
YES bid/ask midpoint · daily observation
Collected during the scheduled daily refresh
View contract at PredictIt ↗Question, identity & settlement rules
Arkansas U.S. Senate election, 2026
8390:33050Which party will win the 2026 US Senate election in Arkansas? Outcome: Republican (Cotton). Prices refer to this provider’s YES contract. The original market page contains the binding settlement rules; nomination, candidate and party questions remain separate.
YES bid/ask midpoint · daily observation
Collected during the scheduled daily refresh
View contract at PredictIt ↗Question, identity & settlement rules
Arkansas U.S. Senate election, 2026
8390:33051Which party will win the 2026 US Senate election in Arkansas? Outcome: Democrats (Shoffner). Prices refer to this provider’s YES contract. The original market page contains the binding settlement rules; nomination, candidate and party questions remain separate.
Reading the Arkansas election markets
These prices describe contracts about the arkansas u.s. senate election, 2026, rather than the share of voters supporting a party. A 60% contract price is not a prediction of a 60% vote share.
Kalshi, Gemini and PredictIt use valid YES bid/ask midpoints. Polymarket uses its outcome-price feed. ForecastEx uses the most recently published daily closing price; its file date is shown. We show Democratic, Republican and any verified independent contracts separately, without forcing the prices to add up to 100%.
History comes from provider time series and observations stored by 567politics. If a provider is unavailable, available stored history is labeled. Missing data stays missing.
Contract mapping checked 2026-10-25. Full methodology ↗