Matt Canavan, the leader of Australia's Nationals, said on Monday, November 2, that he will seek preselection for the Queensland seat of Capricornia at the next federal election. The move would take him from the Senate to the House of Representatives. It also sets up a contest in which Pauline Hanson's One Nation, not Labor, may be his main rival. Within hours, both Hanson and One Nation's national director, James Ashby, said they would not run for the seat themselves.
Canavan made the announcement in Rockhampton beside the retiring member for Capricornia, Michelle Landry. "Who knows, I might not be successful, my political career may die, but I'm not going to die wondering," he told reporters, according to AAP. This article explains the seat, the numbers behind the choice, what each party is saying and the steps before the seat has a candidate. For background on the issues that shape Australian politics, see our Australia issues guide.
What Canavan announced
Canavan has been a senator for Queensland since 2013. He became Nationals leader in March, replacing David Littleproud, who stepped down, the ABC reported. He lives in Yeppoon, inside the electorate.
He is not yet the candidate. Capricornia is held by the Liberal National Party of Queensland (LNP), the merged party whose federal members sit with either the Liberals or the Nationals. Its local members choose the candidate. "We're a grassroots party, and whether I'm leader or whatever, I've got to go and present before the Capricornia branch of the LNP and seek their support," Canavan said, according to the ABC.
If he wins preselection, he will have to resign his Senate seat before he can stand for the lower house, according to The New Daily. The next federal election is due by May 2028, AAP reported.
Canavan framed the move as a duty. "With Michelle announcing her retirement, someone's got to step up and effectively I'm the next person up here in central Queensland," he said, as quoted in the ABC's live coverage. He told ABC Radio Capricornia that he wanted "to be on the front lines with my troops" and was "happy to sacrifice potentially my own political future to do that."
He said he was under no illusions about the race, because "there's no safe seats anymore." He added: "I'll live and die by the judgment of central Queensland. It's their choice."
Landry's retirement
Landry first won Capricornia in 2013 and is the outgoing Nationals chief whip. She announced in October that she would not recontest. She stood next to Canavan on Monday and backed him. "It's ... a big job doing this, and I think Matt's certainly up for it," she said, according to the ABC.
A statement on Landry's website struck a more procedural note. It said she acknowledged Canavan's intention to nominate. But it added that "preselection is a matter for the LNP membership." It said "every eligible member who wishes to put their name forward should have the opportunity to do so."
The seat and the numbers
Capricornia covers more than 91,000 square kilometers of central Queensland, including Rockhampton, The Guardian reported. The ABC's Casey Briggs noted that it includes the mining centers of Collinsville, Moranbah and Clermont. Before Landry, it had a long history of Labor members.
At the May 2025 election, Landry won 36.6 percent of first-preference votes, according to final results from the Australian Electoral Commission. Labor's Emily Mawson won 31.9 percent. One Nation's Cheryl Kempton was third with 15.6 percent. After preferences, Landry beat Mawson by 55.8 percent to 44.2 percent. That is the 5.8-point margin cited in news reports.
type: bar
title: Capricornia first-preference vote share by candidate's party, 2025 federal election (%)
source: [Australian Electoral Commission](https://results.aec.gov.au/31496/Website/HouseDivisionPage-31496-157.htm)
note: Final results. LNP is the Liberal National Party of Queensland. Landry (LNP) won after preferences, 55.8% to 44.2% over Labor.
---
Party | First-preference share (%)
LNP (Landry) | 36.56
Labor (Mawson) | 31.91
One Nation (Kempton) | 15.56
Greens (Jones) | 6.18
Trumpet of Patriots (Andrew) | 6.08
Family First (Hislop) | 3.70
The 2025 numbers understate the current risk, Briggs argued in an ABC analysis. One Nation's 15.5 percent in Capricornia was its third-highest result in any seat. It was more than double the party's national result of 6.4 percent. With One Nation's national support now "roughly quadruple" that, Briggs wrote, "you would expect its support in Capricornia to be well north of 30 percent, perhaps even higher than 40 percent." That is an estimate based on uniform national swings, not a seat poll.
The area is also a One Nation stronghold at the state level. Briggs noted that the state seat of Mirani, which One Nation won in 2017 and 2020, sits entirely within Capricornia. So does Keppel, where Ashby polled about a quarter of the vote at the 2024 Queensland election.
What national polls show
One Nation has surged in national polling since the 2025 election. The four most recent national polls compiled by election analyst Adrian Beaumont for The Conversation show it between 22.5 and 28 percent of the primary vote:
- Newspoll, conducted October 26 to 29 with 1,200 respondents: One Nation 28 percent, Labor 27, Coalition 21, Greens 13.
- DemosAU for Capital Brief, October 23 to 26, 1,500 respondents: Labor 26, One Nation 26, Coalition 24, Greens 13.
- Essential, October 21 to 25, 1,003 respondents: Labor 28, One Nation 28, Coalition 23, Greens 12. The Guardian, which publishes Essential, gave a sample of 1,087.
- Roy Morgan, October 12 to 25, 2,711 respondents: Labor 26, Coalition 23.5, One Nation 22.5, Greens 15.5.
The Conversation's summary did not report margins of error. National polls do not measure any single seat. They also differ by method, and Morgan had the Coalition ahead of One Nation for the first time since mid-July.
type: bar
title: One Nation's national primary vote in four late-October 2026 polls (%)
source: [The Conversation (Adrian Beaumont)](https://theconversation.com/labor-returns-to-equal-term-low-primary-vote-in-newspoll-295257)
note: National voting intention, not Capricornia. Fieldwork dates: Newspoll Oct 26-29 (n=1,200); DemosAU Oct 23-26 (n=1,500); Essential Oct 21-25 (n=1,003); Morgan Oct 12-25 (n=2,711). Margins of error not reported in the source.
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Poll | One Nation primary vote (%)
Newspoll | 28
DemosAU | 26
Essential | 28
Roy Morgan | 22.5
The Senate risk
Canavan is also exposed if he stays put. He holds the second spot on the LNP's Queensland Senate ticket, behind Liberal James McGrath, the ABC reported. Briggs wrote that if Newspoll's latest quarterly figures held, Queensland would most likely elect two Labor senators, two One Nation senators, one Green and just one LNP senator. "It means that unless something changes, the Nationals leader is currently at risk of losing his seat," he wrote.
The Guardian reported that pollsters had warned Canavan had a "0%" chance of keeping his Senate spot if One Nation held its surge. Briggs put the trade-off this way: Canavan's odds of staying in parliament "would have probably been better (but maybe only a bit better)" had he run for the Senate again.
There is a second reason for the switch. Nationals leaders usually sit in the House. A seat there would make it more likely Canavan could become deputy prime minister in a future Coalition government, the ABC reported.
What the Coalition says
Opposition Leader Angus Taylor backed the bid. "He's putting it all on the line. We're all putting it all on the line because we have to because we need our country back," Taylor said, according to the ABC. He added: "I'd love to see him in the lower house." Asked whether One Nation's rise was pushing Canavan out of the Senate, Taylor declined to comment on the minor party.
Liberal frontbencher Andrew Hastie called Canavan the "right guy" to take on One Nation in Queensland. He also challenged Hanson to say which lower house seat, if any, she would contest. Speaking on ABC's Afternoon Briefing, Hastie said: "At some point Pauline Hanson is going to have to declare which seat she's going to run in for the lower house if she wants to become the oldest prime minister ever elected in this country."
Nationals deputy leader Bridget McKenzie said there was "always a risk running for lower house seats" in the current climate. Speaking on Nine's Today show, she said One Nation should target Labor-held seats rather than Coalition seats if it was serious about taking on Labor, The Guardian reported.
Canavan set out his own pitch on energy. He said the next election would be a "referendum on net zero," and called for the government to "unleash our nation's energy resources again," including coal, oil, gas and uranium, the ABC reported. "I've been against net zero since day one," he said. "I stayed out of the ministry of the Coalition government to take up that fight."
What One Nation says
Hanson ruled herself out on Monday morning in Melbourne. "Am I running in Capricornia? No I'm not running in Capricornia, so I'll give you a direct answer to that one," she said, according to the ABC. She would not, at first, rule out a run by Ashby.
Later, Ashby said in a statement that he would not nominate either. "I'll play a role in the campaign here in Capricornia, but my position as national director is one that I take seriously, therefore I won't be nominating at preselection," he said, as quoted by AAP. "Capricornia is a seat One Nation can win, so I intend to throw the resources and people behind a strong campaign." He said he knew "a number of very worthy contenders" who would seek the party's nomination.
Ashby also criticized Canavan's record. He said the electorate had been "enormously betrayed" by the Coalition and that "Matt Canavan and his colleagues have never shouldered any of the responsibility." He linked that to the Paris Agreement, the safeguard mechanism and the net zero target. "Until he and the Nationals admit they've been a part of the problem, voters across Capricornia will continue shifting their support to One Nation," he said, according to the ABC.
The New Daily reported that One Nation announced late last year it would open a branch in Yeppoon, Canavan's hometown.
What Labor says
Labor holds government nationally and finished second in Capricornia in 2025. Senator Murray Watt, the environment minister, said Canavan had little choice. "With their dire polling as it stands now, he would have lost that Senate spot," Watt said, according to the ABC. "I can understand why he wants to try and remain in parliament, and the only way to do that is run for the seat of Capricornia." [Funding: campaign funding data not verified]
Watt also argued that the Nationals and One Nation vote the same way. "The reality is, it doesn't make any difference whether Matt Canavan wins this seat or a One Nation candidate wins this seat," he said. He said Canavan should explain "why he's voted with One Nation to cut wages, cut same-job-same-pay, and cut health funding." 567 Politics has not checked those voting claims against the Senate record for this story.
What analysts say
YouGov pollster Paul Smith gave Canavan "only an outside chance" in Capricornia, AAP reported. "On current polling, One Nation would easily win that seat with Labor being the second place party," Smith said. He argued that Canavan's focus on net zero and opposition to an EU trade deal would not resonate with voters worried about wages and prices. "It's game over," he said of the Nationals.
Briggs reached a more mixed view. He wrote that Labor and Greens preferences "are likely to break the Nationals' way," so One Nation would need a clear lead on first preferences to win. "If anyone can keep their party's support afloat in a seat like Capricornia, it's Canavan," he wrote. But he also said the seat "appears to be highly vulnerable."
These assessments rest on national polls and uniform-swing estimates. No published poll of Capricornia itself was found for this story. Readers can see how we treat polls and projections in our methodology.
The wider stakes for the Nationals
Capricornia is one of many seats at risk. Briggs wrote that among One Nation's 20 best seats in 2025, four are held by Labor, five by Liberal party room members and 11 by Nationals, most of them in Queensland. "If the party can't abate the threat posed by One Nation, it faces electoral annihilation," he wrote.
The contest also tests how the Coalition handles a rival on its right. Hastie and McKenzie argue that One Nation should be fighting Labor. One Nation argues that the Coalition shares blame for energy and climate policy. Labor argues that the two are interchangeable. Each claim is a political argument, and voters in Capricornia will decide between them. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese [Funding: local campaign funding not researched; FEC does not cover this country] did not comment on the seat in the coverage reviewed for this story; he was at the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting in Antigua.
What to watch
- LNP preselection. Local members must endorse Canavan. Landry's statement stressed that any eligible member can nominate.
- One Nation's candidate. Ashby said several local contenders will seek the nomination once it opens.
- The Senate seat. If Canavan is preselected, he must resign from the Senate before the election, The New Daily reported.
- Queensland polling. Any seat-level or state-level poll would test the uniform-swing estimates now in circulation.
This report follows our editorial standards. Quotes are taken from the reports linked above.