Iotova wins Bulgaria's presidential runoff with 57.6% as Gyurov concedes and both camps cite turnout

Iliana Iotova won Bulgaria's presidential runoff on Sunday, November 1, by a wider margin than either campaign had publicly predicted. With all polling-station protocols processed, the Central Election Commission (CEC) put the ticket of Iotova and her running mate Kiril Valchev at 1,093,852 votes, or 57.566%. Andrey Gyurov and his running mate Georgi Kandev received 750,251 votes, or 39.483%, according to the commission's official runoff results, timestamped 9:15 a.m. local time on November 2. Another 56,080 voters, or 2.951%, chose the ballot option "I support no one."

The result gives Bulgaria its first elected woman president. It also hands a win to Prime Minister Rumen Radev, who backed Iotova and whose Progressive Bulgaria party leads the government, Reuters reported. The stakes go beyond domestic politics. Iotova favors talks with Moscow and opposes military aid to Ukraine, while Gyurov ran with the support of Bulgaria's pro-Western, reformist parties, RTÉ reported, citing wire coverage. The vote took place weeks after drone attacks on merchant ships off Bulgaria's Black Sea coast, which Reuters said have killed at least 24 seafarers.

Bulgarian sources spell the winner's surname both "Iotova" and "Yotova." This report uses "Iotova," the spelling used by the state news agency BTA and by the presidency. Quotations from Bulgarian-language sources are 567politics translations unless an English version is linked.

The official count

The CEC's runoff page lists only two tickets and the "I support no one" line. Compared with the first round on October 25, both finalists gained votes, but Iotova gained far more.

First-round figures come from the CEC's first-round results page. That page records 1,525,034 people voting, out of 6,584,025 names on the voter lists plus 132,022 people added to supplementary pages on election day. Our earlier report on the runoff campaign described the first-round turnout of about 23% and the complaints filed with the commission over Radev's endorsement of Iotova.

By the CEC's numbers, Iotova roughly doubled her vote between rounds, adding 564,901 votes. Gyurov added 264,019, an increase of about 54%. The total number of votes cast for a ticket or for "I support no one" rose from 1,521,723 valid votes in the first round to 1,900,183 in the runoff.

The CEC runoff page that we opened did not display a final national turnout figure. The commission's last published intraday reading, reported by Novinite, was 19.33% at 4 p.m. on election day. The polling agency Trend's parallel count put final turnout at 27.5%, according to the same report. Wire coverage summarized by RTÉ described turnout as projected at around 27%. We treat these as estimates until the commission publishes its final protocol figure.

Iotova led in 28 of Bulgaria's 31 electoral districts, BTA reported. Gyurov led in Kardzhali and in Sofia's 23rd and 24th districts. Among Bulgarians voting abroad, the pattern reversed. Gyurov's ticket won 60,413 overseas votes, or 56.36%, against 44,413, or 41.43%, for Iotova's, BTA said. Novinite reported wide differences by country, with Gyurov at 67.5% among voters in the United States and Iotova at 84% among voters in Russia.

• First round
• Runoff

0%

20%

40%

60%

Iotova and ValchevFirst round: 34.76%Runoff: 57.57%

Gyurov and KandevFirst round: 31.95%Runoff: 39.48%

"I support no one"First round: 4.43%Runoff: 2.95%

Iotova and ValchevGyurov and Kandev"I support no one"

Source: CEC first round, Oct. 25, CEC runoff, Nov. 1

Show the numbers

Ticket	First round	Runoff
Iotova and Valchev	34.76%	57.57%
Gyurov and Kandev	31.95%	39.48%
"I support no one"	4.43%	2.95%

A large gap between the exit poll and the count

The margin surprised some observers because the first exit poll pointed to a closer race. At 8 p.m. on election night, the agency Myara estimated Iotova at 51% and Gyurov at 44.7%, BNT reported. Myara's parallel count of actual ballots, completed later, showed 58.2% to 38.6%, close to the official result. Exit polls ask voters how they voted as they leave polling places. Parallel counts tally results from a sample of polling stations, which is why they tend to track official numbers more closely.

Analysts interviewed by Bulgarian media offered different explanations for the gap. Sociologist Kancho Stoychev told bTV, as quoted by Novini.bg, that the distortion came mainly from GERB voters who backed Gyurov but did not want to say so. Political scientist Hristo Panchugov argued, in the same report, that the divergence suggested about 10% of voters were reluctant to disclose a vote for the winner. Both explanations involve claims about undisclosed voter behavior. Neither can be confirmed from the published data, which show only the size of the gap.

The case made by Iotova and her supporters

Iotova framed her victory as a vote for peace, stability and cooperation between institutions. In her election-night address, reported by BNT, she said voters had rejected a campaign whose "main message is to sabotage everyone else." She said good decisions could come from "discussion, the search for solutions, cooperation and coordination with the other institutions." She thanked Radev directly: "without you, we would not have succeeded." RTÉ reported that she described her message as focused on "incomes, peace and the challenges that lie ahead."

Radev described the result as a choice of "the future over the past." He told reporters that Bulgarians "chose peace, stability, normality, and a sustainable and clear perspective," according to BNT. He said there was "no going back to political 'assemblages'" and to "the shadows of the past" from the post-communist transition. He added that the outcome encouraged his government to pursue "even more decisive and active reforms."

Supporters from several parties claimed a share of the win. Petar Vitanov, who leads Progressive Bulgaria's parliamentary group, said turnout had risen by nearly a third and argued that the president elected in the runoff was fully legitimate, BTA reported. Krum Zarkov, chair of the Bulgarian Socialist Party, called it "a great, decisive and well-deserved victory." Krasimir Karakachanov of the nationalist VMRO said "the people's desire for peace and stability prevailed," according to BNT.

The coalition behind Iotova did not fit neatly on a left-right line. It included the Socialists on the left and nationalist parties on the right. Kostadin Kostadinov, leader of the nationalist party Vazrazhdane (Revival), wrote on Facebook that his party's voters had decided the result. "Vazrazhdane has now become an unavoidable factor in Bulgarian politics," he wrote, as quoted by BTA. Kostadinov had won 12.5% in the first round. He had not formally endorsed Iotova, but our earlier report noted he said "not one" Revival supporter would vote for Gyurov.

Iotova's backers also point to her position on Europe. She supports Bulgaria's membership in the EU and NATO while arguing that peace in Ukraine can be reached only through negotiation, RTÉ reported. After voting, she said she wanted "Bulgaria to be strong in a strong Europe" and "sovereign in its decisions." Her running mate Valchev said he would be "another guarantor" of Bulgaria's place in Europe and of its democracy, according to BNT.

The case made by Gyurov and his supporters

Gyurov conceded on election night. He said he accepted the results, "however surprising they might be," BTA reported. He argued that the campaign had not been in vain and had built "a solid platform" for the future. Iotova said Gyurov called her to congratulate her and told her she would be "a worthy president" who would talk with everyone, according to BNT. His running mate Kandev said the fight does not end with this election.

Gyurov's supporters framed the vote as a warning to the government rather than an endorsement of it. Assen Vassilev, chair of We Continue the Change, called the result a "red card" for the government over prices, incomes and the fight against oligarchic influence, BTA reported. Vassilev also argued that the opposition had grown. "If the preliminary results are correct, Andrey Gyurov's result has almost doubled compared with the first round," he said on election night, according to BNT. He said the parties backing Iotova had a combined total of "almost 1.8 million votes" in earlier elections and that she had lost around 800,000 of them.

Those claims need context. The final CEC figures show Gyurov's vote rising by about 54% between rounds, from 486,232 to 750,251, not doubling. Vassilev spoke before final results, citing exit-poll estimates. His comparison with earlier party totals compares a parliamentary election with a presidential runoff, where turnout and voter motives differ. Treating the two electorates as the same pool of voters is an assumption, not something the results establish.

Alexandrina Pendachanska, a soprano who co-chaired Gyurov's initiative committee, told BTA that the gap between the tickets had narrowed sharply during the campaign. In her view, the ticket "had simply run out of time." She said a longer campaign, and more time for voters to see the government budget due next week, might have changed the result.

Political scientist Panchugov, quoted by Novini.bg, went further. He said "the pro-European majority stayed at home." He said the winner had benefited from "two lies." The first, in his account, was that Bulgaria would enter a war if she did not win. The second, he said, was her statement on a television program that Russia is Bulgaria's friend and should take part in Europe's new security architecture. Panchugov's first point characterizes a campaign message rather than quoting it. Iotova's campaign emphasized peace, but we did not find a statement in the sources we reviewed in which she said Bulgaria would go to war if she lost. Readers should treat his summary as an opponent's interpretation.

Weighing the turnout argument

Both camps cite turnout, and they draw opposite conclusions. Progressive Bulgaria's Vitanov points to the rise from the first round as evidence of mobilization and legitimacy. Opposition figures point to the low overall level as evidence of disengagement.

The numbers support parts of both arguments. The CEC data show roughly 378,000 more valid votes in the runoff than in the first round. At the same time, even the higher estimates of runoff turnout, around 27% to 28%, mean that roughly seven in ten registered voters did not take part. Sociologist Elena Darieva told Novini.bg that low turnout in both rounds was "an anti-record." She attributed it to "disappointment" and a negative campaign rather than apathy. Stoychev offered another reading: that voters "calmed down" after recent political change and saw less need to vote. He also noted that complaints about vote-buying did not dominate either round.

Neither turnout argument, by itself, shows what non-voters think. A low-turnout election can reflect satisfaction, disillusionment, a weak race or habits formed over many elections. Arguing that the absent majority secretly favors one side, as some commentators did, draws a firm conclusion from people whose views were not recorded. No representative survey of non-voters was available to us at publication time.

What the presidency can and cannot do

Bulgaria's president is elected directly for five years, but parliament holds most decision-making power, as Reuters noted. The presidency's summary of its constitutional powers lists the main tools. The president can return a law to parliament with a suspensive veto, which a majority of all members can override. The president appoints a caretaker government and sets elections when parliament cannot form a government. The president is commander-in-chief, represents Bulgaria abroad and appoints four of the Constitutional Court's judges.

Those powers matter most when governments fall, which has happened often in Bulgaria in recent years. They matter less when a stable majority governs, and Iotova's ally Radev now leads the government. Asked by reporters whether she would act independently of him, Iotova replied: "With almost 30 years of political experience behind me, no one has yet come along to tell me what to do."

Iotova has been acting president since January. Radev resigned the presidency to run in parliamentary elections, and the Constitutional Court ended his term early, our earlier report noted. Her current term runs to January 21, 2027, and her new five-year term begins the next day, Fakti.bg reported, citing News.bg. Before that, the CEC must formally announce the elected president and vice president, with a deadline of November 4, and the winners must take an oath before the National Assembly.

The foreign-policy reaction

European leaders who congratulated Iotova stressed security cooperation. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen wrote on X that she looked forward to "continuing our joint work" on security and defense, competitiveness and energy independence, RTÉ reported. Romanian President Nicușor Dan said the neighbors had "much we can do together for the security and development of our region, starting with the Black Sea," according to BTA. Austrian President Alexander Van der Bellen and North Macedonia's President Gordana Siljanovska-Davkova also sent congratulations, BTA said.

Bulgaria's approach to the war matters because it sits on NATO's southeastern flank and borders the Black Sea. Radev has said the strikes on merchant ships appeared to serve Russian interests, and his government summoned Russia's ambassador, RTÉ reported. The government also says there is so far no evidence directly linking the attacks to Moscow. Gyurov, as caretaker prime minister, signed a security cooperation agreement with Kyiv, Reuters noted. Iotova's call for a negotiated end to the war echoes positions in the wider diplomatic contest covered in our report on the stalled Abu Dhabi talks among Ukraine, Russia and the United States. Fighting continues meanwhile, as our story on the end of the local truce around Oleshky describes.

What to watch

The CEC's formal declaration of the winners, due by November 4, will close the legal process. Gyurov has accepted the result, and the sources we reviewed reported no formal challenge. The government's budget, which Gyurov's camp expects next week, is the next test of the "red card" argument about prices and incomes. On November 2, the energy regulator approved a November wholesale natural gas price of 58.43 euros per megawatt-hour for Bulgargaz's sales to suppliers and heating companies, BTA reported. The agency's headline put the increase at 33%.

About this report

This report draws on official CEC results, the presidency's published description of its powers, the state news agency BTA, the public broadcaster BNT, wire reports and Bulgarian outlets linked above. Bulgarian politicians do not have profiles on 567 Politics, and our political funding tool covers only U.S. federal candidates. We have not reviewed campaign-finance filings for either ticket, so this report makes no claims about who funded them. Final official turnout was not available on the CEC pages we opened. Our methodology and editorial standards explain how we handle preliminary figures and contested claims.

Photo note: File image of Andrey Gyurov and Iliana Iotova at the presidency in February 2026, when she handed him the mandate to form a caretaker government, not a photograph of the runoff. Photo: President.bg, via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 2.5 BG. Cropped for publication.

Differing perspectives

What does the presidential runoff result say about Bulgarians' views of the government?

Each position is summarized as its supporters make it, with equal weight and in alphabetical order. A summary is not an endorsement; the evidence for each is weighed in the story above.

• Result confirms the government's direction

  Who holds it: Prime Minister Rumen Radev and Petar Vitanov of Progressive Bulgaria

  Prime Minister Rumen Radev says Bulgarians "chose the future over the past" and "peace, stability, normality, and a sustainable and clear perspective." He says the result confirms that the course his government has taken is the right one. Petar Vitanov, who chairs Progressive Bulgaria's parliamentary group, says turnout rose by nearly a third from the first round, which he calls unprecedented in the country's democratic history.

  In their words: BNT, Nov. 2, 2026 ↗

• Result shows lost support for the government

  Who holds it: Asen Vasilev, chair of We Continue the Change

  Asen Vasilev says that, if the preliminary results were correct, Andrey Gyurov's result almost doubled from the first round. He says the parties that supported Iliana Iotova had a combined total of almost 1.8 million votes earlier, and that exit-poll estimates put her at about 900,000 to 1 million votes, a loss he puts at around 800,000 votes. He spoke before the final count.

  In their words: BNT, Nov. 1, 2026 ↗