Florida's last pre-election polls show Republicans ahead in both statewide races, by margins far smaller than DeSantis [Funding: campaign funding data not verified]' reelection win of just over 19 points in 2022, which WSVN noted. The candidates for governor and U.S. Senate spent the final weekend on bus tours and caravans aimed at turnout. Election Day is Tuesday, November 3.
The governor's race pits Republican U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds [Funding: tracked education-related PAC receipts $0.00; energy-related PAC receipts $0.00 (2026 cycle; retrieved 2026-10-31; partial topic registry)] [FEC source] against Democrat David Jolly, a former U.S. representative. The Senate race pits Republican Sen. Ashley Moody [Funding: tracked education-related PAC receipts $0.00; energy-related PAC receipts $9,000.00 (2026 cycle; retrieved 2026-11-02; partial topic registry)] [FEC source] against Democratic state Rep. Angie Nixon. Gov. Ron DeSantis [Funding: campaign funding data not verified] appointed Moody to the seat after President Donald Trump [Funding: campaign funding data not verified] named Marco Rubio [Funding: campaign funding data not verified] secretary of state, Spectrum News reported. Our Florida governor race page and Florida Senate race page track both contests.
What the final polls show
Three recent surveys agree on the direction of both races. They differ on the size of the leads. Each used a different method, so their margins should not be averaged or compared as if they were the same measurement.
Stetson University. Stetson's Center for Public Opinion Research released its final survey on October 30. It found Donalds leading Jolly 51% to 45% and Moody leading Nixon 49% to 45% among likely voters, according to the full report. The poll interviewed 1,000 Florida adults from October 26 to 30 through Qualtrics' online opt-in panel. The election results are based on 861 self-reported registered voters, weighted by each person's modeled chance of voting. Undecided respondents who leaned toward a candidate were counted for that candidate. In the Senate race, 3% were undecided and 3% chose another candidate. In the governor's race, 2% were undecided.
Stetson reports precision estimates of plus or minus 3.6 points for likely voters, adjusted for design effects. The report stresses that these are not conventional margins of error, because an opt-in panel is not a random sample. The center did not name an outside sponsor; it describes itself as an independent, nonpartisan center at the university. Its report shows the full table of results by group but not the exact question wording.
Stetson said the leads were roughly half of what it measured in mid-October. Donalds' margin narrowed by about six points and Moody's by about eight. "The headline from our final survey is a real tightening," said Gustavo Venturelli, the center's co-director. "It's about who shows up between now and Tuesday."
The report also shows how much the results depend on weighting choices. Stetson anchored its sample to the certified 2024 presidential result in Florida, in which Trump won 56.09% to Kamala Harris [Funding: campaign funding data not verified]' 42.99%. Without that step, using demographics alone, its numbers would have shown Nixon ahead by 2.5 points and Jolly ahead by 1.8. Weighting party identification to the state's registration figures instead would have shown Moody ahead by 6.7 and Donalds by 7.4. The center said its demographic-only electorate failed its check against the 2024 result.
New York Times/Siena. The Siena Research Institute posted results on October 28 showing Moody ahead 50% to 44% and Donalds ahead 48% to 44% among likely voters. "In Florida, Republican Ashley Moody holds a 6-point advantage over Democrat Angie Nixon," said Siena's executive director, Don Levy. The Siena page links to toplines and crosstabs hosted by The New York Times. Those pages did not load for us, so we could not confirm the sample size, field dates, method or margin of error. We report only the toplines. [Funding: tracked education-related PAC receipts $0.00; energy-related PAC receipts $9,000.00 (2026 cycle; retrieved 2026-11-02; partial topic registry)] [FEC source]
St. Pete Polls for Florida Politics. This survey found Moody ahead 49% to 45%, with 3% for someone else and 4% undecided, Florida Politics reported. It surveyed 916 likely voters from October 25 to 27, using automated phone calls for 71% of responses and text messages for 29%. Respondents were drawn at random from the state voter file. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.2 points. The weighted sample was 43% Republican and 31% Democratic. That is about 12 points Republican, compared with about eight points on the voter rolls. Reweighted to match registration, the same responses gave Moody a 47% to 46% edge. St. Pete Polls also found Donalds ahead of Jolly 48% to 46%, Florida Politics reported.
Every one of these leads is small relative to the uncertainty involved. The margins of error cited above apply to each candidate's share, and the uncertainty on the gap between two candidates is larger. Our methodology page explains how 567 Politics reports polls and why opt-in panels need extra care.
type: column
title: Florida governor polls of likely voters, Oct. 27 to 31, 2026
note: Percent of likely voters, in release order. Undecided voters and other candidates are not shown. The polls used different methods and are not averaged here.
suffix: %
source: [270toWin Florida governor polls](https://www.270towin.com/2026-governor-polls/florida)
---
Poll | Jolly | Donalds
Echelon Insights | 44 | 50
Siena | 44 | 48
St. Pete Polls | 46 | 48
InsiderAdvantage | 45 | 49
Stetson University | 45 | 51
Early votes and the Election Day gap
Both polls that reported the split found Democrats doing better among people who had already voted than among those who had not. In St. Pete Polls' Senate survey, Nixon led 56% to 41% among early voters, while Moody led 57% to 34% among those yet to vote. In Stetson's survey, Nixon led 49% to 47% among those who had voted, and Moody led 51% to 40% among those who had not.
Turnout figures point the same way. Through the morning of October 27, Republicans had cast 40% of the 3.15 million ballots returned statewide and Democrats 39%, Florida Politics reported, citing the Division of Elections. In 2022, Republicans had led Democrats by about 177,000 ballots at the same point. Stetson said about 4.40 million ballots had been cast during its field period. These figures describe who returned ballots, not how they voted. Our national report on early voting in Senate battlegrounds has more context.
Republicans hold a voter-registration advantage of about 1.5 million, Florida Politics reported. As of the October 5 book closing, there were 5.69 million Republicans, 4.15 million Democrats and 3.35 million voters registered with no party.
The final weekend
Donalds closed his "Defending the Florida Dream" bus tour with stops in The Villages on Saturday and Sanford on Sunday, both with Moody and Chief Financial Officer Blaise Ingoglia, Florida Politics reported. DeSantis was scheduled to join him Sunday evening at the Cuban Civic Club in Tampa. A Monday event in Sarasota was to include Moody, Ingoglia, Attorney General James Uthmeier, Agriculture Commissioner Wilton Simpson and retiring U.S. Rep. Vern Buchanan. Trump held a joint rally with Donalds in Daytona Beach on Friday night, WSVN reported, after an earlier visit to Fort Myers. [Funding: campaign funding data not verified] [Funding: campaign funding data not verified] [Funding: tracked education-related PAC receipts $0.00; energy-related PAC receipts $5,000.00 (2026 cycle; retrieved 2026-11-02; partial topic registry)] [FEC source] [Funding: campaign funding data not verified]
Jolly and his running mate, former U.S. Rep. Gwen Graham, held rallies in The Villages, St. Petersburg and Tampa on Friday, Florida Politics reported. They planned stops in Pasco County and Sarasota on Saturday and Miami on Sunday. On Monday they planned stops in Polk County, Palm Beach County and Wilton Manors in Broward County. The Polk stop was added amid local disputes over artificial intelligence data centers. Jolly has pledged a statewide moratorium on new data centers if elected.
Nixon led a get-out-the-vote caravan through Miami-Dade County on Saturday, starting in Liberty City with stops in Opa-locka and Miami Gardens, CBS News Miami reported. Miami-Dade Mayor Daniella Levine Cava was among the officials announced as participants. Moody joined a Hialeah rally on Thursday with Donalds, Uthmeier, Ingoglia and Donald Trump [Funding: campaign funding data not verified] Jr., Spectrum News reported. The rally was expected to focus on denouncing socialism.
The case each side is making
For the Republicans. Donalds argues that Florida's direction under DeSantis has worked and should continue. "In Florida we've been consistent for a very long time, and now under Governor DeSantis it's been supercharged," he said at a Tallahassee stop, according to NorthEscambia.com. "We've become the number one state in all of America." Ingoglia told the same crowd that predicted blue waves do not reach Florida "because we get Republicans out to the polls in droves." Donalds' running mate, former state Sen. Bryan Avila, said Democrats "don't believe in freedom; they believe in socialism." [Funding: campaign funding data not verified] [Funding: campaign funding data not verified]
Moody has made that argument against Nixon. Spectrum News reported that Nixon is a member of the Democratic Socialists of America. Moody has criticized Nixon's remarks to CBS News about Cuba. Asked whether she considered Cuba a dictatorship, Nixon said, "That is what people have told me. I have never been to Cuba, and so I will have to take their word for it." Moody also denounced Nixon for criticizing the Trump administration's rollback of legal protections for Cuban immigrants. Nixon said both remarks were taken out of context. On immigration, Moody said leaders must "fix and address the chaos, the utter chaos and lawlessness" she said the prior administration allowed.
For the Democrats. Jolly argues that Florida's economy is not working for everyone. "We want the economy to keep growing. Where it's working in Florida, let's keep it working. But it's not working for everybody," he said. He has dismissed the socialism charge. "We're not radical, we're not even cool, folks," Jolly said. Democrats have focused on prices for groceries, gas and insurance. NorthEscambia.com reported that Trump's decision to start a war in Iran in February pushed gas prices higher.
Nixon has campaigned on the cost of rent and on immigration enforcement. She said some Haitian, Venezuelan and Cuban communities are being unfairly targeted, CBS News Miami reported. "Right now, there's a lot of people that are under attack here in Miami-Dade County as it relates to folks not being able to afford to live here," she said. At small businesses in Tampa Bay, she said owners complained about taxes, tariffs and rising costs, including "the cost of gas and this war in Iran." Nixon is trying to become the first Democrat to win a U.S. Senate election in Florida since Bill Nelson in 2012, Spectrum News reported.
Money in the Senate race
We checked Federal Election Commission summaries on November 1. They cover the 2026 cycle through October 14.
- Moody's committee reported $14.5 million in receipts, including $6.8 million from individuals and $2.4 million from other political committees, with $0.8 million in cash on hand.
- Nixon's committee reported $11.3 million in receipts, including $11.0 million from individuals and $0.2 million from other committees, with $3.3 million in cash on hand.
These are candidate-committee figures. They exclude outside spending and later 48-hour reports. The 567 Politics funding tool holds an FEC snapshot for Moody's profile [Funding: tracked education-related PAC receipts $0.00; energy-related PAC receipts $9,000.00 (2026 cycle; retrieved 2026-11-02; partial topic registry)] [FEC source], retrieved October 29. It lists 425 committee contributors totaling about $2.02 million, reported on line 11C of her committee's filings. The largest single totals in the snapshot are $10,000 each, from groups including the AbbVie PAC, the Altria Group PAC, the Akerman LLP PAC and the American Health Care Association PAC. The snapshot excludes individual donors and does not net refunds. A corporate or employee PAC is separate from the company's treasury. A contribution does not show that a donor shaped a vote.
The governor's race is funded under state law and does not appear in FEC records. Our funding tool's snapshot for Byron Donalds [Funding: tracked education-related PAC receipts $0.00; energy-related PAC receipts $0.00 (2026 cycle; retrieved 2026-10-31; partial topic registry)] [FEC source] covers his U.S. House committee, not his campaign for governor. We have not reviewed state campaign finance filings for this article. Nixon has no profile on 567 Politics, so we have no snapshot for her.
The three amendments
Florida voters will also decide three proposed constitutional amendments, each needing 60% to pass. None reached that level in Stetson's survey.
- Amendment 1 would raise the maximum size of the state's budget stabilization fund. It drew 46% support, 35% opposition and 19% undecided.
- Amendment 2 would exempt certain agricultural equipment and agritourism property from property taxes. It drew 57% support, 25% opposition and 19% undecided.
- Amendment 3 would raise the homestead exemption for non-school property taxes. It drew 53% support, 28% opposition and 20% undecided, down from 56% support in mid-October.
"Sixty percent is a high bar," said Kelly Smith, the center's other co-director. She said voters who are still unsure "will likely decide how close these proposals come to passing." A single survey with a wide range of uncertainty cannot say whether a measure will pass.
What to watch on Tuesday
Polls are open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m., CBS News Miami reported. The key question is whether Republicans who had not voted by the weekend turn out at the rate the polls assume. St. Pete Polls found three in five Republican respondents had not yet voted, against fewer than half of Democrats. Miami-Dade, where Trump won by 11.4 points in 2024 according to Florida Politics, is another test. Jolly and Graham targeted it on Sunday, and Moody and Nixon both campaigned there.
Stetson's generic House ballot gave Republicans a 49% to 46% edge in Florida, down from nine points in mid-October. The center noted that this differs from national polls, which have shown Democrats ahead this fall. Our report on national generic-ballot polls covers that wider picture.