Final Siena poll finds Iowa's Senate race tied, with Turek at 48% and Hinson at 47%; Sand leads Lahn by 8

Iowa's open U.S. Senate race is effectively tied going into Tuesday's election. The final New York Times/Siena poll of the state, released Sunday, November 1, found Democrat Josh Turek at 48% and Republican Ashley Hinson$ at 47% among likely voters. The same poll had Democrat Rob Sand ahead of Republican Zach Lahn, 51% to 43%, in the open race for governor. Both seats are open. Republican Sen. Joni Ernst$ is retiring, and Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds is not seeking reelection.

Siena's executive director, Don Levy, said in the poll release that "Iowa is virtually tied" in the Senate race. Of the governor's races, he said the final polls "show the Democrats up 8 or more points in Alaska, Iowa, Maine and Michigan." Our race pages follow the Iowa Senate contest and the Iowa governor's race.

How the Siena poll was done

The Siena Research Institute conducted the poll for The New York Times among likely Iowa voters. Siena gives the margin of sampling error in Iowa as plus or minus 4.7 points, including a design effect of 1.45. The design effect accounts for the loss of precision that comes from weighting the sample. The 270toWin poll tracker lists 705 likely voters for this survey, with a margin of 4.4 points. We use Siena's larger figure.

We were not able to open The Times's published toplines, so we have not verified the exact field dates, the question wording, the interview method or the weighting targets. The release says the Iowa survey was one of seven state polls published together. The others covered Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas. Our methodology page explains how 567 Politics reports polls.

A one-point lead is far smaller than the margin of error. The Senate poll result is consistent with either candidate being ahead.

Senate: Turek 48%, Hinson 47%

Turek, a Democratic state representative, and Hinson, who represents Iowa's 2nd Congressional District in the U.S. House, are competing to replace Ernst.

Other recent public polls of the race listed by 270toWin also show a close contest. A YouGov poll of 2,020 likely voters, released November 1, had Turek ahead 50% to 49%. A co/efficient poll of 1,020 likely voters, released October 29, had Hinson ahead 48% to 46%. We have not reviewed the methodology of these surveys and list them only to show that no recent poll in the tracker finds a clear leader. The tracker shows the five most recent polls averaging 46.8% for each candidate.

• Turek
• Hinson

0%

20%

40%

60%

co/efficient (Oct. 29)Turek: 46%Hinson: 48%

NYT/Siena (Nov. 1)Turek: 48%Hinson: 47%

YouGov (Nov. 1)Turek: 50%Hinson: 49%

co/efficient (Oct. 29)NYT/Siena (Nov. 1)YouGov (Nov. 1)

Source: 270toWin Iowa Senate polls, Siena Research Institute release

Show the numbers

Poll (release date)	Turek	Hinson
co/efficient (Oct. 29)	46%	48%
NYT/Siena (Nov. 1)	48%	47%
YouGov (Nov. 1)	50%	49%

This has been a close race all year. In June, a Times/Siena poll had Hinson ahead 48% to 46% with leaners, while a Fox News poll had Turek ahead 50% to 46%, The Gazette reported at the time. The Gazette noted that 2026 is the first year since 1968 that Iowa has had open-seat races for both governor and U.S. Senate.

The case each side is making in the Senate race

For Hinson. Hinson argues that Turek is too liberal for Iowa and has not done his current job. "Not only is he too liberal for Iowa, he skipped a lot of his votes," she told the crowd at President Donald Trump's Sunday rally in Dubuque, KCCI reported. PolitiFact found that Turek missed 261 of 445 Iowa House floor votes during the 2026 session, the second-highest absence rate in the chamber. Turek said he missed those votes because he was campaigning in all 99 counties. PolitiFact also rated as accurate Hinson's claim that Turek missed the vote on the Iowa Farm Act. He filed a comment saying he would have voted for it.

Hinson has framed the race as a fight over control of the Senate. "Chuck Schumer knows that his path to a Democrat majority in the United States Senate runs right through Iowa," she said in Dubuque, Iowa Capital Dispatch reported. Trump told the crowd that if Hinson is elected, "we will make year-round E-15 permanent." He also cited tax cuts in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. Trump called Turek "a woke far left radical." He said Turek had voted "to allow schools to turn your children transgender without informing the parents" and wanted to defund border protection agencies, KCCI reported.$

For Turek. Turek's campaign rejected Trump's and Hinson's claims. "Multiple independent fact checkers have already rated these claims false," it said in a statement to KCCI. It said Turek "broke with his party to allow Iowa law enforcement to deport individuals who came here illegally." We have not independently checked the fact-check ratings the campaign cited.

Democrats argue that Hinson has sided with Trump on issues that raised costs for Iowans. Pam Jochum, a former state Senate minority leader from Dubuque, criticized Hinson's votes for the One Big Beautiful Bill Act's Medicaid cuts. She also faulted Hinson for not voting to restrict Trump's tariffs or the war with Iran. "She has been a rubber stamp for Trump, end of story," Jochum said, Iowa Capital Dispatch reported. Democrats also said Hinson had not held public town halls since announcing her Senate campaign.

In the final debate on October 13, Turek accused Hinson of contributing to a "corruption crisis" in Washington. He cited her use of a congressional housing allowance and her husband's advocacy work. PolitiFact said the housing claim "needs context." Hinson used about $50,000 over three years for an apartment priced close to the city's average rent. It rated the claim that her husband operated as a "shadow lobbyist" misleading.

Outside money

Outside spending has climbed as the election nears. As of the federal reporting period ending October 13, outside groups had spent $59.86 million supporting Turek and $51.67 million supporting Hinson, according to an OpenSecrets analysis cited by Iowa Capital Dispatch. The largest spenders were the Senate Republican-aligned SLF PAC, with $35.53 million, and the Democratic super PAC WinSenate, with $28.27 million.

Governor: Sand 51%, Lahn 43%

In the governor's race, Sand led Lahn by eight points in the Siena poll, outside its margin of error. Sand, 44, is the state auditor. Lahn, 40, owns an investment company and farms near Belle Plaine, The Gazette reported. If Sand wins, he would be the first Democratic governor of Iowa since 2011. The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections and Sabato's Crystal Ball all rate the race as leaning or tilting toward Sand, The Gazette reported.

For Sand. Sand argues that a Democratic governor would balance a Legislature that will likely stay under Republican control. He spoke at a Sunday event in Des Moines, Iowa Capital Dispatch reported. "We're on the cusp of returning Iowa to a balanced government, where everything that happens has to be a bill that has bipartisan support," he said. He has built his campaign around his record as a public corruption prosecutor and auditor. "It's the simple idea that power corrupts, and absolute power corrupts absolutely," he said in Cedar Rapids, The Gazette reported. He linked Iowa's water quality and high cancer rates in part to a decade of one-party Republican control.

Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, who chairs the Democratic Governors Association, campaigned with Sand on Sunday. He said the association had invested more than $10 million to help elect Sand.

For Lahn. Lahn argues that the election is about protecting the state's culture. He spoke to reporters before a rally in Clive with Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. "A lot of my campaign has been about the culture of our state, about safe communities, good schools, clean water," he said. He has also run against corruption. "I am here for a very simple reason: I am not for sale," he said at that rally, The Gazette reported. Trump called Lahn Iowa's "only choice" for governor at the Dubuque rally.

Lahn said he believes Republicans will turn out despite polls favoring Sand, KCCI reported. "They all think that we're not motivated. Are we motivated?" he asked the Dubuque crowd.

House races

Iowa also has competitive House races. The Cook Political Report rates the 1st District, held by Republican Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks, and the 3rd District, held by Republican Rep. Zach Nunn, as leaning Democratic, Iowa Capital Dispatch reported. Both incumbents joined Trump in Dubuque. Nunn faces state Sen. Sarah Trone Garriott. Nunn told the crowd that his race "will decide whether we have a majority in Congress who stands with the president." He said that majority would also "hold the president accountable in a pragmatic way." Our report on Cook's latest House rating changes covers the national House map.$$

Money in the Senate race

We checked Federal Election Commission summaries on November 2 for the 2026 cycle through October 14.

• Turek's campaign reported $24.3 million in receipts. That included $22.0 million from individuals, $576,000 from other political committees and $1.6 million in transfers from other authorized committees. It reported $3.1 million in cash on hand.
• Hinson's campaign reported $14.1 million in receipts. That included $7.5 million from individuals, $2.7 million from other political committees and $3.9 million in transfers. It reported $2.2 million in cash on hand.

The 567 Politics funding tool returned server errors for most of the morning of November 2. When it responded, its snapshot for Hinson was tied to her House candidate record (FEC ID H0IA01174), not her Senate campaign, so we relied on the FEC Senate figures above. These are candidate-committee figures only. They exclude outside spending and filings after October 14. Governors' campaigns report to the state, not the FEC, and we did not review them. A contribution does not show that a donor shaped a candidate's positions.

What the polls cannot tell us

A one-point Senate margin means the result will turn on turnout. More than 407,000 early ballots had been received statewide as of Friday, surpassing the total early vote in 2022, The Gazette reported, citing the Iowa Secretary of State's Office. Our earlier report on early voting in Senate battlegrounds has more on that trend. A poll measures answers given during specific days and is not a forecast. For more on the president's campaigning, see our report on Trump's final-weekend rallies in Iowa and Kansas.

Differing perspectives

What should Iowa's next U.S. senator do to lower costs for Iowa families?

Each position is summarized as its supporters make it, with equal weight and in alphabetical order. A summary is not an endorsement; the evidence for each is weighed in the story above.

• Cut middle-class taxes and limit corporate pricing

  Who holds it: Josh Turek and his campaign

  Turek says Washington is making life harder for working families. His platform calls for cutting taxes for the middle class, a federal ban on price gouging on food, a higher minimum wage tied to inflation, and a ban on private equity firms buying single-family homes and farmland. On health care, it calls for restoring Medicaid funding, protecting ACA subsidies and creating a public option.

  In their words: Josh Turek for Iowa platform ↗

• Make tax cuts permanent and lower fuel costs

  Who holds it: Rep. Ashley Hinson and her campaign

  Hinson says Iowans need relief that lowers costs. Her affordability agenda would make no tax on tips, overtime and Social Security permanent, protect the enhanced child tax credit, make year-round E15 the law, and temporarily suspend the state and federal gas tax. It would also let Iowans save tax-free for a down payment and require health insurers to publish claim delays and denials.

  In their words: Ashley Hinson for Iowa press release, Sept. 25, 2026 ↗