Final Siena poll has Troy Jackson up 6 on Susan Collins in Maine; Pingree leads for governor

Democrat Troy Jackson led Republican Sen. Susan Collins$ 51% to 45% among likely voters in the final New York Times/Portland Press Herald/Siena poll of Maine, released Sunday, November 1. A separate final poll from the University of New Hampshire's Pine Tree State Poll, released the same day, also found Jackson ahead. Both polls show Democrat Hannah Pingree leading the race for governor. In the 2nd Congressional District, UNH found that Republican Paul LePage, a former governor, has opened a small lead. Voters go to the polls on Tuesday, November 3.

The Siena result is a change from September, when the same poll had Collins ahead by three points, the Portland Press Herald reported. Collins is seeking a sixth term. Our race pages follow the Maine Senate contest and the Maine governor's race, and our profile of Susan Collins lists her record in office.

How the Siena poll was done

The Siena Research Institute surveyed 714 likely Maine voters between October 27 and November 1, 2026, the Press Herald reported. The poll was sponsored by The New York Times and the Portland Press Herald and was funded with support from the Maine Trust for Local News.

The Siena Research Institute's release gives the margin of sampling error in Maine as plus or minus 4.7 points, including a design effect of 1.47. The design effect accounts for the loss of precision that comes from weighting. The Press Herald's article gave a margin of 4.3 points. We use Siena's figure, which is the larger and more cautious of the two. Under either figure, the six-point gap between Jackson and Collins is not much bigger than the uncertainty on each candidate's share.

We were not able to review the full question wording, the interview method or the weighting targets for this poll, so we have not verified them. The Maine survey was one of seven state polls Siena released together. The others covered Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio and Texas. Our methodology page explains how 567 Politics reports polls.

Senate: Jackson 51%, Collins 45%

Jackson, the 58-year-old former president of the Maine Senate, had 51% support, and Collins had 45%, according to the Press Herald. Just 4% refused to say whom they would support or said they did not know.

The Press Herald described the result as "a nine-point swing" from the September Times/Press Herald/Siena poll. The newspaper reported changes in several groups:

• Unenrolled voters, Maine's term for voters not enrolled in a party, backed Jackson 52% to 41%. In September, the two were tied among them at 47% each.
• In September, Collins had the support of 8% of Democrats, and Jackson drew 3% of Republicans. In the new poll, Collins had less crossover support than Jackson. The newspaper did not give the new figures.
• Collins's favorable rating was 48%, and her unfavorable rating was 49%. In September, 51% viewed her favorably.
• Jackson was viewed favorably by 45%, up four points since September, and unfavorably by 48%.

Voters named the economy as their top issue. They trusted Jackson slightly more on the cost of living and, by three points, on handling foreign wars. Collins had a one-point edge on immigration.

Siena's executive director, Don Levy, said the final polls showed Democrats leading Senate races by 5 to 11 points in five states, including Maine. "Now, it's time for all votes to be cast and the counts to speak louder than the polls," he said in the release. He added that "with so many races within the poll's total margin of error, a Senate majority for either party remains possible."

The UNH poll

The UNH Survey Center released its final Pine Tree State Poll on November 1. Its summary says Jackson "leads incumbent Republican Susan Collins." It also says that "most Maine voters think that Collins will win the election." The summary adds that Democrats "have effectively nationalized this election as a referendum on President Trump." It says Democratic voters are "more interested and motivated than Republicans."

We could not open the full UNH report. Our research tools could not download it, so we have not verified its vote shares, sample size, field dates, method or margin of error. For that reason, we do not report its numbers here. Readers should treat the UNH finding as a second poll that points the same way as Siena, not as a separate measurement we have checked.

• Jackson
• Collins

0%

20%

40%

60%

MaristJackson: 49%Collins: 47%

CNN/SSRSJackson: 49%Collins: 45%

Data for ProgressJackson: 50%Collins: 45%

NYT/SienaJackson: 51%Collins: 45%

YouGovJackson: 52%Collins: 47%

MaristCNN/SSRSData for ProgressNYT/SienaYouGov

Source: 270toWin Maine Senate polls, Siena Research Institute release

Show the numbers

Poll	Jackson	Collins
Marist	49%	47%
CNN/SSRS	49%	45%
Data for Progress	50%	45%
NYT/Siena	51%	45%
YouGov	52%	47%

How the Senate race got here

The Democratic side of the race was upended this summer. Jackson replaced Graham Platner, an oysterman who had entered the race the summer before, as the Democratic nominee in July, the Boston Globe reported. Polls have shown a close race since then, the Globe reported. Jackson reached his 100th day of campaigning on Monday.

The race has drawn very heavy spending. More than $137 million has been spent by outside groups supporting or opposing the two candidates, the Globe reported, citing the campaign finance tracker OpenSecrets. More than half of that has gone to ads attacking Jackson. The Press Herald, also citing OpenSecrets, put outside spending at almost $150 million and the campaigns' combined fundraising at nearly $50 million. The two figures likely reflect different dates.

Maine uses ranked-choice voting in federal general elections. If no Senate candidate wins more than half of the votes, the count moves to a ranked-choice tabulation, the Press Herald noted. That means a final result may not come on election night.

More than 250,000 Mainers cast ballots during the early voting period that ended last week, the Globe reported.

The case each side is making in the Senate race

For Jackson. Jackson and his allies want the race to be a referendum on President Donald Trump. They argue that Maine needs a senator who will act as a firmer check on him. Jackson spoke at a Friday press conference in Portland, the Globe reported. "We don't have to settle for Donald Trump's corruption, chaos, and crimes, and we don't have to settle for Susan Collins' concern anymore," he said. Asked what has changed since Democrats lost with a similar message in 2020, he pointed to the overturning of Roe v. Wade, the war with Iran and tariffs. "She didn't because she is a rubber stamp for Donald Trump," he said of Collins's influence on those issues.

Jackson has focused on costs. "The heating oil prices is the worst part by far," he said at a Sunday event in Scarborough with Massachusetts Sen. Ed Markey, NEWS CENTER Maine reported. He also warned about federal health care cuts. "People are going to go without, hospitals are going to be challenged, if not overrun," he said, according to WGME. Christyna Thompson, press secretary for the Democratic-aligned Senate Majority PAC, told CBS13 that Collins says she stands up to Trump but does not do so in practice, WGME reported.$

Jackson has also blamed Collins for not asserting congressional authority over tariffs. In an October debate, after Collins said she had secured the removal of road salt from the tariff list, Jackson replied that Mainers "can't eat road salt," the Press Herald reported.

For Collins. Collins argues that her seniority and record of bringing federal money to Maine matter more than national politics. "This election is about who can do more for Maine," she wrote in an op-ed in local papers, the Globe reported. "I don't work for any president. I work for you." She also wrote: "My opponent, Troy Jackson, says he is going to Washington to fight. I believe America is crying out for compromise and less chaos."

Collins chairs the Senate Appropriations Committee. "I've been able to bring $1.5 billion to Maine to support projects just like this one," she said in Winthrop, WGME reported. She highlighted $1.1 million for the town's public safety communications center and more than $6 million for a public safety and public works building in Milo, NEWS CENTER Maine reported. "Seniority, relationships, knowledge, and experience all really count in the Senate," she said.

Collins has voted several times to halt hostilities with Iran, the Press Herald reported. She has also pointed to deals with the administration to release more fuel into markets and to her efforts to slow Trump's trade war with Canada. Former Sen. Joe Manchin, who left the Democratic Party to become an independent, defended her. "She is not a Trump Republican," he said, WGME reported. Collins and her allies have also cited the moment in the final debate when Jackson told her to "shut up." That came after Collins blamed a shouting audience member on Jackson's supporters.

The race has turned personal at times. Republican allies of Collins ran ads attacking Jackson's family. Collins called for those ads to stop, but they kept running, the Globe reported. A Collins ad featuring broadcaster Bill Green said voters were choosing a senator, not "buying a cord of wood." Critics called that ad elitist, and Jackson dressed as a cord of wood for Halloween.

Governor: Pingree 49%, Charles 37%, Bennett 8%

In the race to succeed Democratic Gov. Janet Mills, Hannah Pingree had 49% in the Siena poll. Republican Bobby Charles had 37%, and independent Rick Bennett had 8%. Six percent refused to answer or did not know, the Press Herald reported. The governor's race will not use a ranked-choice runoff.

Pingree is the daughter of U.S. Rep. Chellie Pingree$. She drew 51% of unenrolled voters. About 10% of voters who plan to back Collins also said they plan to vote for Pingree. Charles's support among Republicans rose from 73% in September to 86%. The Press Herald also noted that a Marist poll last month showed Pingree and Charles tied. If Democrats win, it would be the first time since 1959 that Maine voters elected governors from the same party back to back, the newspaper reported.

For Pingree. Pingree has tried to tie Charles to Trump, who the Press Herald says "remains deeply unpopular in Maine." She spent Sunday rallying volunteers at Colby College. "We know a lot of Democrats have voted, but ensuring that everybody votes, it matters a lot," she said, according to NEWS CENTER Maine.

For Charles. Charles blames Mills for high energy prices and low hospital reimbursement rates. He also blames her administration for what he calls fraud in MaineCare, the state's Medicaid program. He uses the term "Mills-Pingree administration" to describe eight years of Democratic control in Augusta, the Press Herald reported. On Sunday, he began a two-day trip to all 16 counties. "The only thing that counts, the only poll that counts, is on Tuesday," he said.

Bennett, a former Maine Republican Party chair, criticized ads by the No Nonsense PAC, a group aligned with Republicans and Charles. The PAC has spent nearly $165,000 supporting Bennett. "I find that this is just so cynical," he said.

The 2nd District: LePage and Dunlap

Democratic Rep. Jared Golden is not seeking reelection in the 2nd District. LePage, who was governor from 2011 to 2019, faces State Auditor Matt Dunlap, a Democrat. In September, a UNH poll found Dunlap narrowly ahead, the Press Herald reported. UNH's final summary now says LePage "has opened a small lead." It also says Chellie Pingree "holds a comfortable lead" in the 1st District. Trump has endorsed LePage. Dunlap is backed by Sen. Angus King and Mills, the Press Herald reported.$$

LePage's daughter and campaign spokesperson, Lauren LePage, called Dunlap a "career politician." She said the former governor "pushed back against the political establishment, fought fraud and corruption and lowered taxes." Dunlap said voters raise heating oil and grocery prices with him everywhere. "If elected, I'll work hard to bring prices back to normal," he said.

Money in the Senate race

We checked Federal Election Commission summaries on November 2 for the 2026 cycle through October 14.

• Collins's campaign reported $22.5 million in receipts. That included $15.3 million from individuals, $1.6 million from other political committees and $5.4 million in transfers from other authorized committees. It reported $2.7 million in cash on hand.
• Jackson's campaign reported $26.9 million in receipts. That included $24.0 million from individuals, $401,000 from other political committees and $2.4 million in transfers. It reported $1.6 million in cash on hand.

The 567 Politics funding tool has matched Collins to her FEC candidate record but has not yet published a funding snapshot for her. These are candidate-committee figures only. They exclude outside spending and filings after October 14. A contribution does not show that a donor shaped a candidate's positions.

What the polls cannot tell us

Siena and UNH both show Jackson ahead, but the UNH summary also reports that most Maine voters expect Collins to win. Collins has beaten poor polls before. In 2020 she "defied polls" and beat Sara Gideon by nine points, the Press Herald noted. A poll measures answers given during specific days and is not a forecast. Our earlier report on CNN's October polls in Maine and three other states shows how the race looked a few weeks ago.

Differing perspectives

How should Maine's next U.S. senator best serve Maine families and communities?

Each position is summarized as its supporters make it, with equal weight and in alphabetical order. A summary is not an endorsement; the evidence for each is weighed in the story above.

• Act quickly on heating costs with emergency aid

  Who holds it: Troy Jackson and his campaign

  Jackson says that in November 2022, with heating oil at $5.20 a gallon, he passed a law, working with both parties, that rushed emergency heating assistance to almost a million Mainers. He says that with the war in Iran, heating oil is now at $6 a gallon. In his words, 'this winter is going to break some people,' and it is time to act quickly again.

  In their words: Troy Jackson for Maine, ad transcript ↗

• Use Senate seniority to bring federal funding home

  Who holds it: Sen. Susan Collins and her campaign

  Collins says seniority, relationships, knowledge and experience are the key to being effective in the Senate. On her 'All of Maine' bus tour she has highlighted federal money she helped secure through the Appropriations Committee, including $1.1 million for a public safety communications center in Winthrop, more than $6 million for a building in Milo, and construction of two Navy destroyers at Bath Iron Works in 2027.

  In their words: NEWS CENTER Maine, quoting Collins ↗