Minnesota final polls: Flanagan leads Tafoya for Senate, Klobuchar ahead of Demuth

Minnesota votes Tuesday in two statewide races that Republicans spent the summer calling winnable. Five polls released in the final week give Democrats the lead in both. They disagree on how big that lead is.

In the open U.S. Senate race, Democratic Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan leads Republican Michele Tafoya, a former NFL sideline reporter, by 3 to 14 points. In the race for governor, U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar$ leads Republican House Speaker Lisa Demuth in every poll reviewed here, by 11 to 18 points. Nearly 900,000 Minnesotans had already voted by Monday morning, a record for a midterm year, according to the Minnesota Secretary of State's office.

This story sets out what each final poll found, how it was done and who paid for it. It also covers the early-vote count, how the two campaigns are closing and how the fight over fraud in state programs shaped the race. Results will appear on our Minnesota Senate race page and Minnesota governor race page as counties report.

Why the Senate seat is open

The seat belongs to Democratic Sen. Tina Smith$, who is retiring. Flanagan, who has served as lieutenant governor under Gov. Tim Walz since 2019, won the August Democratic-Farmer-Labor primary over Rep. Angie Craig$ by about 20 points, CBS Minnesota reported. Polls before that primary had shown a close race.

Minnesota last elected a Republican to the Senate in 2002, when Norm Coleman won, CBS Minnesota noted. KSTP reported that Republicans have not won any statewide office in Minnesota for 20 years.

The final Senate polls

All five polls below were released between Oct. 28 and Nov. 2. Each found Flanagan ahead. Two were within or close to their own margin of error, and one showed a double-digit gap that its own analysts treated with caution.

• Flanagan (DFL)
• Tafoya (R)

0%

20%

40%

60%

Survey 160Flanagan (DFL): 52%Tafoya (R): 43%

Research Co.Flanagan (DFL): 52%Tafoya (R): 47%

InsiderAdvantageFlanagan (DFL): 49%Tafoya (R): 46%

KSTP/SurveyUSAFlanagan (DFL): 48%Tafoya (R): 41%

NYT/SienaFlanagan (DFL): 54%Tafoya (R): 40%

Survey 160Research Co.InsiderAdvantageKSTP/SurveyUSANYT/Siena

Source: Survey 160, Research Co., InsiderAdvantage, KSTP/SurveyUSA, MinnPost on NYT/Siena

Show the numbers

Poll	Flanagan (DFL)	Tafoya (R)
Survey 160	52%	43%
Research Co.	52%	47%
InsiderAdvantage	49%	46%
KSTP/SurveyUSA	48%	41%
NYT/Siena	54%	40%

Survey 160

Survey 160, a research firm that mainly runs text-message surveys, released polls of four states on Nov. 2. Its methods note says the Minnesota poll drew a probability sample from the L2 voter file and contacted cell phones by text. It also called landlines using automated recorded calls (IVR) and AI interviewers. The firm paid for the poll itself as part of its own methods research.

Among likely voters, it found Flanagan ahead 52% to 43%. The firm's summary describes a 10-point lead before rounding. Klobuchar led Demuth by 11 points, and Democrats led the generic ballot for the U.S. House by 13. The firm weighted results to its sampling strata, education, region, recalled 2024 vote, whether people said they had already voted and landline use.

Survey 160 was open about a weakness. Both landline approaches "struggled," it wrote, and weighting to correct for that raised the design effect. In Minnesota the design effect was 2.04, which is why a sample of 1,423 carries a margin of error of 3.7 points rather than about 2.6.

Research Co.

Research Co., a Vancouver-based firm, polled 450 likely voters online from Oct. 30 to Nov. 1, according to its release. It weighted only for age and gender, using census figures. Among decided voters it found Flanagan ahead 52% to 47% and Klobuchar ahead 56% to 43%. The release reports only decided voters, so its figures are not directly comparable with polls that include undecided voters.

InsiderAdvantage

InsiderAdvantage interviewed 1,200 likely voters on Oct. 29 and 30, its release says. It used text messages and an online panel and weighted for age, race, gender and political affiliation. Flanagan led 49% to 46%, within the 2.83-point margin. In its late-September poll, the firm had found a one-point race. Pollster Matt Towery said the race would be "purely decided over how intense feelings really are over alleged widespread fraud in the state." He said the question was whether that can "overcome the state's electorate's bent towards very liberal politics."

KSTP/SurveyUSA

The final poll for KSTP-TV by SurveyUSA reached 714 likely voters from Oct. 24 to 28. KSTP reported that Flanagan's lead grew from 3 points two weeks earlier to 7, at 48% to 41%, with 7% undecided. Klobuchar led Demuth 51% to 39%, with 8% undecided.

The sample was 41% self-identified Democrats, 33% Republicans and 23% independents. KSTP said that 8-point Democratic edge was double the gap in its previous poll. That shift in party makeup may explain part of the movement. Minnesota does not register voters by party, so pollsters cannot check this against an official count.

Carleton College political scientist Steven Schier told KSTP the Senate contest was still "a margin of error race. Either candidate could win it."

New York Times/Siena

The poll with the widest gap was conducted for The New York Times by Siena College and released Oct. 28. It showed Flanagan ahead 54% to 40% and Klobuchar ahead 56% to 38%, MinnPost reported. It interviewed 752 voters, with a margin of error of 3.9 to 4.2 points. The poll found voters ranked corruption and fraud second only to the economy as issues driving their vote.

The Times' chief political analyst, Nate Cohn, raised doubts about the result himself. MinnPost quoted him as writing that the poll might prove to be "the canary in the coal mine." He compared it to a 2024 Iowa poll that showed Kamala Harris ahead before Donald Trump won the state. He also wrote that the poll "may not be as far off as one might usually guess for a big outlier."

Tafoya called the poll "a huge outlier" in a Fox News interview, MinnPost reported. Republican analyst Amy Frederiksen told CBS Minnesota that no nonpartisan poll had shown Flanagan ahead by more than 4 points before it. Democratic strategist Abou Amara said, "It's one poll, it's a snapshot in time, but I do think it speaks to an enthusiasm gap as well."

What the polls agree on

The five polls agree that Flanagan is ahead and that Klobuchar's lead is larger than hers. They differ on the size of Flanagan's lead and on how many voters are still undecided. Three of them, from Research Co., SurveyUSA and Siena, have margins of error above 4 points. The polls also used different methods, from texts and online panels to AI-assisted landline calls. That makes it harder to treat them as a simple average.

The governor's race

Klobuchar, who has served in the Senate since 2007, is running against Demuth, the Republican speaker of the Minnesota House. Democrats have held the governor's office for four straight terms, MPR News reported.

The polls are more consistent here. Survey 160 found an 11-point lead, SurveyUSA 12 points, Research Co. 13 points among decided voters and Siena 18 points. CBS Minnesota reported an average lead of about 11 points.

KSTP's poll found Klobuchar ahead among women by 22 points and among men by 2. Demuth led in rural areas and among voters 65 and older.

Record early vote

As of 9 a.m. Monday, local officials had accepted 886,527 absentee and mail ballots, WJON reported, citing the Secretary of State's office. Of those, 266,580 came by mail and 619,847 were cast in person. The office said it was the highest number cast before Election Day in a non-presidential year.

Voters who still hold an absentee ballot can drop it at their local election office until 5 p.m. Tuesday. Ballots delivered by an agent or by the Postal Service count if they arrive by 8 p.m., when polls close. Early-vote counts do not show how people voted, because Minnesota voters do not register by party. For comparison with other states, see our national early-voting report.

How the candidates are closing

Both Senate campaigns spent the final weekend on bus tours. Affordability and fraud were the main themes, MPR reported.

Flanagan has built her campaign around her own childhood. "I relied on Medicaid and SNAP," she told WDIO, and her family used Section 8 housing aid. Her campaign priorities page calls for universal child care, a larger Child Tax Credit and reversing federal cuts to Medicaid and food aid. It also calls for "Medicare for All" and a ban on stock trading by members of Congress.

"We have received the brunt of Donald Trump's cruelty and chaos, from Operation Metro Surge, to the tariffs, to the cuts to Medicaid and SNAP," Flanagan said Monday, CBS Minnesota reported. At a St. Paul rally with Klobuchar and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, she said Democrats "can absolutely win back the United States Senate." She has also campaigned with Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont.$

Tafoya voted in Edina on Monday. "They are tired of the fraud. They're tired of their career politicians," she said of voters, CBS Minnesota reported. Her campaign issues page says she would push to deport any noncitizen convicted of fraud, set mandatory minimum prison terms for fraud and cut federal funds to states without anti-fraud controls. It also backs "all U.S. energy sources" to cut utility and gas bills and opposes any middle-class tax increase.

Tafoya told WDIO that "the war in Iran has driven up gas prices" and called for an "all-American, all-of-the-above energy strategy." On immigration, she said America "can be and is a nation of immigrants" and "should be a nation of laws."

The fraud question

Fraud in state-run aid programs has been the Republican campaign's central issue. Tafoya has repeatedly cited a figure of $9 billion. "Only one of us is responsible for $9 billion of our taxpayer money going out the door to fraud," she told WDIO, referring to Flanagan.

The figure traces to a December 2025 news conference. Then-First Assistant U.S. Attorney Joe Thompson said "half or more" of the $18 billion billed since 2018 through 14 high-risk Medicaid programs could be fraudulent, the Minnesota Reformer reported. The state Department of Human Services' inspector general called that estimate "speculation" at the time.

KSTP's investigative team found that prosecuted cases it had tracked totaled less than $500 million. The largest was the $250 million to $300 million Feeding Our Future case. Thompson later said on WCCO Radio that he "wasn't providing any level of accounting or financial precision." No final total has been established.

Flanagan has called fraud "completely unacceptable." She said she is angry about it "especially as someone who... utilized those public programs as a kid," CBS Minnesota reported.

President Trump has endorsed Tafoya twice. In a Truth Social post quoted by MinnPost, he wrote that "the only way she can lose is if they cheat by playing games with the ballots as they come in." Tafoya has said she will accept the results. Vice President JD Vance canceled a planned St. Cloud event on fraud last week without explanation, MinnPost reported.$

Money

MinnPost described the Senate race as among the cheapest in the country. Through Oct. 14, Flanagan's campaign had raised about $11.6 million and spent about $10.6 million, with $993,000 on hand, according to Federal Election Commission filings. Tafoya had raised about $12.5 million and spent about $9.7 million, with $2.8 million on hand, FEC records show. These figures cover the candidates' own campaign committees and do not include later reports or outside spending.

MinnPost reported that outside groups had spent about $2 million on each side, with little spending by the national parties. It said that was another sign national strategists do not see the race as a top battleground. Both candidates' financial disclosures became a campaign issue. Flanagan's net worth was listed at $990,000 to $2.7 million, which she attributed to inheritances. Tafoya and her husband reported assets of about $17 million to $33 million.

Down the ballot

KSTP's poll found Democratic Attorney General Keith Ellison ahead of Republican Ron Schutz by 8 points, with 10% undecided. Secretary of State Steve Simon led Republican Tad Jude by 11. In the race for state auditor, Democrat Zack Filipovich led Republican Scott Jensen by 6. Ellison won in 2022 by about 20,000 votes.

In the U.S. House, Republican Rep. Brad Finstad$ faces Democrat Jake Johnson in southern Minnesota's 1st District. MinnPost described that race as closer than expected and said it has drawn millions of dollars from national groups. Results will appear on our 1st District race page.

The wider picture

Minnesota's polls follow a national trend toward Democrats in the campaign's last weeks. We covered that trend in our roundup of the final national polls. Survey 160 found Trump's approval among likely Minnesota voters at 39%, with 60% disapproving.

How we reported this

We opened each pollster's own release where it was public: Survey 160, Research Co. and InsiderAdvantage. The SurveyUSA figures are from KSTP, which paid for the poll. The New York Times/Siena results page blocked our access, so its figures are from MinnPost and CBS Minnesota. Early-vote figures are from the Secretary of State's office as reported by WJON. Campaign finance totals are from FEC candidate summaries through Oct. 14, retrieved Nov. 2. Our methodology page explains how 567 Politics handles polls.

Differing perspectives

How should Minnesota's next U.S. senator lower living costs and protect taxpayer-funded programs?

Each position is summarized as its supporters make it, with equal weight and in alphabetical order. A summary is not an endorsement; the evidence for each is weighed in the story above.

• Crack down on fraud and cut spending and taxes

  Who holds it: Republican nominee Michele Tafoya and her campaign

  Tafoya argues that criminals took billions of dollars from Minnesota programs while officials failed to ask basic questions, and that tax increases and heavy spending drove inflation. She would deport noncitizens convicted of fraud, set mandatory minimum federal prison terms for fraud and withhold federal funds from states that refuse anti-fraud controls. She opposes any middle-class tax increase, wants Congress to spend, borrow and tax less, and backs all U.S. energy sources to lower utility bills and gas prices.

  In their words: Michele Tafoya for U.S. Senate ↗

• Expand public supports and curb corporate influence

  Who holds it: DFL nominee Peggy Flanagan and her campaign

  Flanagan argues that families are squeezed because Washington serves corporations and the wealthiest, and that public programs helped her own family when she was a child. She would expand the Child Tax Credit, create universal child care, restore federal cuts to Medicaid and food aid, move toward Medicare for All and force drug makers to lower prices. She says reversing tariffs would protect farm exports. She also backs a ban on stock trading by members of Congress and refuses corporate PAC money, which she says keeps her accountable to voters.

  In their words: Peggy Flanagan for Minnesota ↗