Texas heads into Election Day with its governor's race closer than at any point in Greg Abbott [Funding: campaign funding data not verified]'s three terms. The final New York Times/Siena College poll, released Sunday, Nov. 1, 2026, had Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa at 48% and Abbott, the Republican incumbent, at 47%. A YouGov poll fielded a few days earlier had the reverse: Abbott 50%, Hinojosa 49%. Nearly every other October survey showed Abbott ahead by 2 to 5 points.
Siena's executive director, Don Levy, called the Texas governor's race "too close to call." Abbott is seeking a fourth four-year term. If he wins, he will become the longest-serving governor in Texas history, the San Antonio Report noted. Libertarian Pat Dixon is also on the ballot.
This story covers the final polls, early-vote turnout, each campaign's closing case and the money behind them. The Senate race between Ken Paxton [Funding: campaign funding data not verified] and James Talarico is covered separately in our report on the Senate candidates' closing arguments. Results for governor will post on our Texas governor race page.
What the final Siena poll found
The Siena Research Institute's release lists the Texas governor's result as Hinojosa 48%, Abbott 47%. The Times sponsored the poll and Siena conducted it. Siena put the Texas margin of sampling error at plus or minus 3.4 percentage points, including a design effect of 1.29. The design effect shows how much weighting widens the error compared with a simple random sample.
The Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin, which keeps a running list of public polls in the race, gives the Siena field dates as Oct. 27 to Nov. 1. It lists the sample as 1,215 likely voters, with about 5% saying they did not know. We could not open the Times' crosstabs or question wording before publication. We therefore report only the toplines and do not report Siena's subgroup results.
A 1-point gap with a 3.4-point margin of error is a statistical tie. The margin of error applies to each candidate's share, so the error on the gap between them is larger still. "Kansas and Texas Governor are too close to call," Levy said in the release.
Siena's previous Texas poll, fielded Sept. 21 to 30, had Hinojosa ahead 49% to 46%, according to the Texas Politics Project list. The change from a 3-point lead to a 1-point lead is within the error of either poll. It does not show a real shift either way.
What the YouGov poll found
YouGov released its own Texas poll of 2,141 likely voters, interviewed Oct. 26 to 29. The margin of error is plus or minus 2.9 points. The results document lists YouGov as the firm that did the fieldwork and does not name an outside sponsor. The Texas Politics Project describes YouGov's earlier Texas poll in this series as an in-house survey.
The question asked: "Who did you vote for, or who will you vote for, in the election for Governor of Texas?" Undecided voters were asked which way they leaned, and their leanings were counted. Abbott had 50%, Hinojosa 49%, and 1% picked someone else. YouGov's earlier poll, fielded Sept. 28 to Oct. 5, had Hinojosa ahead 48% to 47%.
YouGov's method differs from many online polls. It drew a stratified random sample from the state's list of registered voters, contacted people by text message and interviewed them online. The sample was weighted to gender, age, race, in-state geography, imputed education, party score and 2024 presidential vote. Likely voters were defined with a model using past vote, demographics and stated likelihood to vote. The likely-voter weights ran from below 0.1 to 9.0, a wide range. That means some respondents count far more than others, which adds uncertainty.
The crosstabs show sharp divides:
- Age: Hinojosa led 70% to 27% among voters ages 18 to 29. Abbott led 62% to 37% among those 65 and older.
- Race and ethnicity: Abbott led 61% to 38% among white voters. Hinojosa led 62% to 37% among Hispanic voters and 82% to 17% among Black voters.
- Gender: Hinojosa led 51% to 48% among women. Abbott led 52% to 46% among men.
Subgroups have far fewer respondents than the full sample, so their margins of error are larger. The same poll found 45% of Texas likely voters approve of President Donald Trump [Funding: campaign funding data not verified]'s job performance and 54% disapprove. Half said they strongly disapprove.
How the other late polls compare
The Texas Politics Project list shows these other October surveys of likely voters. We took the figures from that list. We did not open each pollster's original release, so the wording and methods are not confirmed here.
- Texas Southern University (Oct. 21–25): 2,000 likely voters, margin of error plus or minus 2.19 points. Abbott 50%, Hinojosa 47%, Dixon 2%.
- CNN/SSRS (Oct. 20–27): 923 likely voters, plus or minus 4.2 points. Abbott 48%, Hinojosa 46%.
- Emerson College (Oct. 17–19): 1,000 likely voters, plus or minus 3.1 points. Abbott 49%, Hinojosa 45%, Dixon 1%.
- Fox News (Oct. 15–19): 1,398 likely voters, plus or minus 2.5 points. Abbott 52%, Hinojosa 47%.
- University of Houston Hobby School (Oct. 10–15): 2,000 likely voters, plus or minus 2.19 points. Abbott 49%, Hinojosa 46%.
A poll by N+ Univision, conducted by YouGov among registered rather than likely voters from Oct. 13 to 21, had Abbott ahead 48% to 46%. Our earlier report on CNN's Senate polls in Texas and three other states covers the CNN survey in more detail.
type: column
title: Final public polls of Texas likely voters for governor, Oct. 10 to Nov. 1, 2026
note: Percent of likely voters, listed by the end of each poll's field dates. Excludes Libertarian Pat Dixon, undecided voters and the registered-voter N+ Univision poll.
suffix: %
source: [Texas Politics Project poll tracker](https://texaspolitics.utexas.edu/blog/texas-2026-gubernatorial-poll-tracker)
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Poll (field end) | Abbott | Hinojosa
U. of Houston Hobby (Oct. 15) | 49 | 46
Fox News (Oct. 19) | 52 | 47
Emerson College (Oct. 19) | 49 | 45
Texas Southern (Oct. 25) | 50 | 47
CNN/SSRS (Oct. 27) | 48 | 46
YouGov (Oct. 29) | 50 | 49
NYT/Siena (Nov. 1) | 47 | 48
Taken together, the late polls point to a narrow Abbott edge with a real chance of a Hinojosa win. Only the Fox and Emerson leads were larger than those polls' stated margins of error, and even they fall within the wider error that applies to a lead. Polls can also miss in the same direction when they share the same blind spots. Our approach to weighing polls is on the methodology page.
Early voting broke the midterm record
More than 7.7 million Texans voted early, according to preliminary secretary of state data reported by the Texas Tribune on Nov. 1. That is 40.5% of registered voters, above the modern midterm record set in 2018. In-person early voting ended Friday, Oct. 30. In 2022, 5.5 million Texans voted early, a 31% turnout rate.
The Tribune reported that turnout is up in the largest urban counties, including Harris, Dallas and Tarrant. Democratic strategist Matt Angle said the late surge likely means more Hispanic and Black voters are turning out. He cautioned against reading too much into it. "That doesn't mean Democrats are going to win, Republicans are going to lose," he said.
Rice University political scientist Mark Jones raised the main unknown. "How many votes are actually still out there?" he asked. Early-vote counts show who voted, not how they voted. Texas does not register voters by party, so any partisan reading of the early vote is an estimate. [Funding: campaign funding data not verified]
The case for Greg Abbott [Funding: campaign funding data not verified]
Abbott has run on taxes, the border and the state's conservative identity. At a rally in Adkins, near San Antonio, on Oct. 28, the San Antonio Report said, he warned that Hinojosa would raise taxes and weaken border security. "Remember, it was just two years ago we were still living under the Joe Biden regime," he said. "Remember what Joe Biden did to our border." [Funding: campaign funding data not verified] [Funding: campaign funding data not verified]
He also cast Hinojosa as further left than the Democratic Senate nominee. "What will surprise you is this: my opponent, Gina Hinojosa, is to the far radical left of Talarico," he said. He told supporters she had called for an income tax and supported letting transgender athletes compete in women's sports.
On crime and schools, Abbott made his case to CBS Texas. "In Texas, crime is down, communities are safe, the border's more secure, and I have an opponent who's against those safe community policies," he said, as quoted by the Texas Tribune. He defended state takeovers of failing school districts, which require five straight years of failing grades. "In Houston ISD, state intervention led to a doubling of A and B-rated schools and a 90% reduction in D and F-rated schools," he said.
The case for Abbott rests on the view that a decade of Republican control has kept taxes low and the border more secure. More on his record is on our Greg Abbott profile [Funding: campaign funding data not verified].
The case for Gina Hinojosa
Hinojosa, an Austin attorney who has served in the Texas House since 2017, has built her campaign around corruption and public schools. At an Oct. 19 rally in San Antonio, she accused Abbott of serving his donors. "He is selling off Texas for parts to his biggest donors, because Greg Abbott is the most corrupt governor in Texas history," she said, according to the San Antonio Report. [Funding: campaign funding data not verified]
She pointed to issues that have drawn criticism in recent weeks. A watchdog group reported that Texas kept issuing new data center permits after Abbott promised to stop them, the San Antonio Report said. Texas Monthly reported that the state was preparing to sell a state park to Elon Musk. Abbott declined to rule that out, according to the San Antonio Report.
On schools, Hinojosa has pledged to fire Education Commissioner Mike Morath on her first day and to end state takeovers. "We know that Greg Abbott has taken over Fort Worth ISD (and) Beaumont ISD," she said in Houston, as quoted by the Tribune. "This is a model that threatens our public school kids across this state." [Funding: campaign funding data not verified]
The case for Hinojosa rests on the view that one-party rule has let donors shape policy on schools, land and energy. Even if she wins, the Tribune noted, she would likely need legislative support to undo the takeovers.
Checking the claims
Some of the closing lines on both sides go beyond the evidence.
The income tax. Abbott says Hinojosa supported a state income tax. CBS Texas reported that she voted in 2019 against HJR 38, the constitutional amendment that banned a state income tax and made the ban hard to reverse. Voters approved the ban 76% to 24%. Hinojosa told CBS she "voted against a repeal of a constitutional ban." CBS reported that legislative records do not support that account. In 2016, before she took office, she told KXAN that Texas lacked "the third leg of that stool," which "would include income taxes." She now says high property taxes stem from corruption, not the absence of an income tax.
The record supports part of each side's account. Her vote against the stronger ban is documented, and so is her 2016 comment. But Abbott's claim that she voted against the ban "because she wanted to hold out the possibility" of an income tax describes her motive. We could not verify that, and a vote against one amendment is not a vote for a tax. Her own description of the vote is contradicted by the record CBS cited.
Loaded labels. Calling an opponent "far radical left" or "the most corrupt governor in Texas history" uses loaded language in place of evidence. Neither phrase can be tested as stated. Hinojosa's corruption charge also leans on an implied link between donations and decisions. Large gifts show who backs a candidate. They do not by themselves prove a donor bought a policy.
School results. Abbott credits the Houston ISD takeover for better school ratings. Ratings can change for many reasons, including test and rating changes. Crediting one policy for a later trend without ruling out other causes is the post hoc fallacy. We did not independently verify his figures.
Transgender policy. Abbott said Hinojosa voted to fund gender transitions for children in public schools without their parents' knowledge. An Abbott spokesman told the San Antonio Report he was referring to Senate Bill 14 of 2023, which banned transition procedures for minors and public funding for them. We could not confirm from the sources we reviewed how his description matches a specific vote, so we do not rate that claim.
Who is funding the race
Campaign finance reports due Oct. 26 with the Texas Ethics Commission show a large money gap, according to the Texas Tribune. From Sept. 25 to Oct. 24, Abbott raised $26 million and spent $35.8 million. Hinojosa raised $17.5 million and spent $19.1 million. Both were their largest totals for any reporting period this cycle.
Since Hinojosa launched her campaign on Oct. 15, 2025, Abbott has spent $281 million to her $36.8 million, the Tribune reported. That is nearly eight to one. Abbott's spending this cycle is more than double the $131 million he spent in 2022.
Nearly one-fifth of Abbott's latest haul came from Elon Musk, the Tribune said. Other large donors in that period included Nike co-founder Phil Knight ($2.5 million), investor Kenneth Fisher ($2 million) and the Republican Governors Association ($3 million). Miriam Adelson, Roku co-founder Anthony Wood, John Nau and Lee Bass gave $500,000 each. Anthropic co-founder Tom Brown gave $300,000 and the company's employee PAC gave $200,000, as Abbott has sought limits on data centers.
Hinojosa's top recent donors included Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker and the Democratic Governors Association, at $1 million each. The Senate Democrats' campaign arm paid for just under $1.5 million in canvassing and campaign materials. These figures come from the Tribune's reading of state filings; we did not review the filings directly.
What to watch Tuesday
Polls close at 7 p.m. local time. Early votes are usually counted first, so the first returns may not match the final result.
Three things will be worth watching. The first is turnout in Harris, Dallas and Tarrant counties, where early voting was strong. The second is the Hispanic vote, which YouGov found favoring Hinojosa by 25 points. The third is how many voters split their tickets between the Senate and governor's races. YouGov found Talarico at 51% and Paxton at 47% in the same poll that had Abbott ahead, which suggests some Texans may do so. Senate results will post on our Texas Senate race page.