Ken Paxton and James Talarico spent the last Saturday of the Texas U.S. Senate campaign in the state's two largest metro areas, each describing the other as a front for a more powerful figure. Talarico is a Democratic state representative from Austin. He told a Houston crowd that "this election is about whether you want a senator who puts money in your pocket or who puts money in his own," the Associated Press reported. Paxton, the Republican attorney general, answered in Fort Worth. "The left in this country keeps getting more and more radical," he said, arguing that Talarico would follow Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer. [Funding: campaign funding data not verified] [Funding: tracked labor-related PAC receipts $0.00; energy-related PAC receipts $0.00 (2026 cycle; retrieved 2026-10-30; partial topic registry)] [FEC source]
The stakes extend well beyond Texas. Republicans hold a 53-47 Senate majority. Democrats need a net gain of at least four seats to take control, or five if they lose Michigan, the AP reported. A Democrat has not won a U.S. Senate election in Texas since 1988, as the ReconMR Texas Poll noted in its October release. Polls taken in October show a race within the margin of error, record early turnout, and spending that The Texas Tribune describes as the most expensive Senate contest on record. Our Texas Senate race page tracks the contest and its candidates.
What the candidates said on the final weekend
Talarico framed his closing pitch around money in politics. He called the race "David vs. Goliath" and said "the people of Texas are my slingshot," according to the AP. The AP reported that Elon Musk has spent more than $150 million of his own money to help Paxton keep pace with Talarico's fundraising. His "Clear Eyes, Full Hearts" tour drew on his Christian faith and on Texas figures such as Barbara Jordan and Lyndon B. Johnson, the Tribune reported. [Funding: campaign funding data not verified]
Paxton's closing message cast the election as a defense of the state's conservative identity. "I'm not exaggerating when I say, if we lose Texas, we lose America," he said Saturday, according to the AP, and he urged Republicans to match the early-voting enthusiasm of Democrats. He ended with a request: "Pray for our Texas. Pray for me." On his "Come and Take It" bus tour, Paxton called Talarico "the most radical Democrat to ever run in Texas history," the Tribune reported. In Lubbock, he said a vote for Talarico would leave voters "3,000 miles apart" on the country's direction.
The schedule for Monday, the eve of Election Day, also changed. Paxton's campaign had said it would end the bus tour at the Alamo, but on Saturday it instead listed Monday events in Conroe at 11 a.m. and Allen at 5:30 p.m., the Tribune reported. The Alamo Trust told Texas Public Radio it knew of no planned event on the grounds, where political events are generally barred. The campaign did not respond to questions about the change. Earlier stops in El Paso, Tyler, Texarkana and Mission were also canceled or rescheduled. Talarico said in a Friday statement that "Texas deserves a Senator that shows up — not one that hides behind a pile of money."
President Donald Trump [Funding: campaign funding data not verified] did not campaign in person on Saturday. He was scheduled to join six tele-rallies, for races in Pennsylvania, Ohio, New York, Michigan and Florida, according to the AP; Texas was not on that list. Trump and Vice President JD Vance [Funding: tracked labor-related PAC receipts $0.00; energy-related PAC receipts $5,000.00 (2022 cycle; retrieved 2026-11-02; partial topic registry)] [FEC source] have headlined six campaign events in Texas since Labor Day, the Tribune reported. Trump's Sunday rallies in Iowa and Kansas, which we covered when they returned to his final-weekend schedule, are aimed at other close Senate contests.
What the polls show
Public polls released in October agree that the race is close and disagree about who is narrowly ahead. Each poll below was conducted among likely voters; differences in field dates, methods and how undecided voters are handled limit direct comparison.
- ReconMR Texas Poll, October 5–8, 617 likely voters, landline and cell phone with a text-to-web option, margin of error plus or minus 4.4 points: Talarico 48%, Paxton 44%, compared with 49% to 43% in September. Talarico led independents 60% to 30%, and his favorability stood at 48% favorable to 43% unfavorable against Paxton's 40% to 55%, according to the pollster's release.
- Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media, October 17–19, 1,000 likely voters, mixed text-to-web, interactive voice response and online panel, credibility interval plus or minus 3.1 points: Talarico 48%, Paxton 46%, Libertarian Ted Brown 1%, undecided 5%. With leaners allocated, the result was 49% to 48%, with Brown at 3%. Emerson's Spencer Kimball said that if Brown's support "melts," Paxton would likely gain because those voters are "primarily independents or Republicans," according to the Emerson release.
- Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center at Texas Southern University, October 21–25, 2,000 likely voters: Talarico 49%, Paxton 47%, described by the center as within the margin of error. The summary page does not list the margin itself or the full method, which are in the linked full report.
- Quantus Insights, October 26–28, 1,221 likely voters, margin of error plus or minus 3.2 points: Paxton 48.7%, Talarico 47.6%, undecided 2.2%. Republicans made up 46.7% of respondents, Democrats 39.4% and independents 13.9%, and more than half of respondents said they had already voted, FOX 7 Austin reported.
ReconMR asked respondents, "If the election for Senator of Texas was held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were" the Republican and Democratic nominees. Emerson's survey was sponsored by Nexstar Media; the ReconMR, Texas Southern and Quantus materials reviewed for this article do not name an outside sponsor. A CNN/SSRS survey of the race appears in our earlier report on CNN's polls of four Senate contests. Every poll listed here places the margin inside its stated sampling error. A small lead in one survey does not show who is ahead. Sampling error is only one source of error. Turnout assumptions and the partisan mix of respondents matter too. Our methodology page explains how 567 Politics reports polls.
Record early voting, with competing readings
Texas voters cast 7,410,631 early ballots, in person and by mail, by the end of the early-voting period on Friday, October 30, according to Texas Secretary of State figures reported by CBS Texas. That equals 38.92% of the state's 19,041,684 registered voters. The secretary of state's office reported nearly 5.5 million early voters in the 2022 midterm and just under 4.9 million in 2018. The Tribune calculated that the 2026 figure exceeded 2022 by 36%. These totals are unofficial and may change as counties update their reports. Our earlier story on early voting nationally found Texas leading the national increase.
type: column
title: Texas early votes in midterm years, 2018, 2022 and 2026
note: In millions of ballots cast in person and by mail by the end of early voting. The Texas Secretary of State reports 2018 as just under 4.9 million and 2022 as nearly 5.5 million. The 2026 total is unofficial.
source: [CBS Texas, Oct. 31, 2026](https://www.cbsnews.com/texas/news/texas-early-voting-record-10-31-2026/), [The Texas Tribune, Oct. 31, 2026](https://www.texastribune.org/2026/10/31/texas-us-senate-election-paxton-talarico-final-push-election-day/)
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Year | Early votes (millions)
2018 | 4.9
2022 | 5.5
2026 | 7.41
Early-vote totals do not show how ballots were cast. Some Republican officials nonetheless read them as a warning. "Texas is excruciatingly close," Republican Sen. Ted Cruz said on his podcast Friday, according to the Tribune. "We could lose every single statewide race in Texas." Texas Comptroller Don Huffines, also on the ballot, told a Weatherford rally that "the early vote is not in our favor." He added, "When we lose Texas, we will lose the USA." Those are statements by Republican officials urging turnout; they are not vote counts. [Funding: tracked labor-related PAC receipts $0.00; energy-related PAC receipts $0.00 (2026 cycle; retrieved 2026-11-02; partial topic registry)] [FEC source]
Money: candidate committees and outside groups
The race shows a sharp split between money raised by the candidates and money spent by outside groups. We retrieved Federal Election Commission summaries for the 2026 cycle on November 1. They cover activity through October 14. Talarico's principal campaign committee reported $146.3 million in total receipts, including $139.8 million from individuals, and $9.9 million in cash on hand. Paxton's committee reported $22.3 million in receipts, including $21.0 million from individuals, and $4.8 million in cash. These figures exclude 48-hour reports filed after October 14 and do not net refunds; they are candidate-committee totals only, not totals for all spending in the race. Using FEC data, KPRC 2 in Houston reported that individual donors account for 99.6% of Talarico's fundraising and 97.8% of Paxton's. PAC gifts to the two campaigns were similar as of October 20: $518,805 for Talarico and $435,150 for Paxton.
Outside spending runs in the opposite direction. Musk gave $75 million to the Senate Leadership Fund on September 9 and $83 million two weeks later, CBS News reported from FEC filings. The super PAC sent the same amounts to Texas PAC one day after each gift. A trust associated with Musk also gave $10 million to the pro-Paxton Lone Star Liberty PAC, CBS reported. The Tribune put spending by national Republican groups in the race at more than $272 million and total advertising since the primaries, from both sides, at $408 million. On the Democratic side, the main supportive super PAC, Lone Star Rising, says it has raised more than $31 million, including $11.5 million from LinkedIn co-founder Reid Hoffman, according to KPRC 2. Contributions, transfers, ad spending and independent expenditures are different measures, so these totals should not be added together.
A note on our funding review: 567 Politics' funding tool has no verified FEC snapshot on file for Ken Paxton's profile [Funding: campaign funding data not verified], and Talarico does not yet have a profile on the site. The candidate-committee figures above come from the FEC's own summary pages, opened directly. We have not reviewed itemized contributor lists. Large contributions show who is financing a campaign or a super PAC; they do not, by themselves, establish influence over a candidate's positions.
The case each side is making
Arguments for Talarico. Talarico and his supporters argue that the race is about corruption and cost of living. He has said repeatedly, "I have a legislative record; Ken Paxton has a criminal record," according to the Tribune. His campaign cites Paxton's impeachment by the Texas House on bribery and corruption charges. The Republican-led state Senate acquitted him. It also cites a felony securities-fraud indictment, which prosecutors dropped after Paxton agreed to pretrial diversion without admitting guilt, and $3.3 million in taxpayer-funded travel. Paxton did not accept any of at least four televised debate invitations, making this the first Texas Senate race since 2000 without a debate, according to the Tribune. Talarico has argued that Musk's spending shows billionaires "trying to buy Texas." He announced a $25 million investment in outreach to Black voters after a contested Democratic primary against Rep. Jasmine Crockett. [Funding: campaign funding data not verified] [Funding: tracked labor-related PAC receipts $2,500.00; energy-related PAC receipts $0.00 (2026 cycle; retrieved 2026-10-31; partial topic registry)] [FEC source]
Arguments for Paxton. Paxton and his allies argue that Talarico's record and past statements place him outside the Texas mainstream. Republican ads have highlighted 2021 remarks in which Talarico said "God is nonbinary" and called himself a "Christian who hates Christianity." He has since said the comments "missed the mark" and were "cringey," the Tribune reported. The most-aired ad of the cycle, from the Musk-funded super PAC, features a mother criticizing Talarico's statements on transgender youth. Paxton's campaign also attacked Talarico's vote against a measure that would have made a state income tax harder to adopt. Republican ads said he "voted for an income tax." The measure he opposed would not have created a tax; it would have added a barrier to one. Paxton has promoted an economic plan of new tax breaks for healthcare and housing costs. Gregg Keller, spokesman for Lone Star Liberty PAC, said Texas voters needed to know about Talarico's cultural positions but that "we didn't need to make" the election exclusively about them. His supporters also argue that a Democratic Senate would let Schumer set the agenda. They note that Paxton was acquitted by the state Senate and that the securities case ended without a conviction. [Funding: tracked labor-related PAC receipts $0.00; energy-related PAC receipts $0.00 (2026 cycle; retrieved 2026-10-30; partial topic registry)] [FEC source]
Divisions within each camp. The Republican divide dates to the primary, when Sen. John Cornyn and his allies attacked Paxton's rising net worth, alleged affairs and his office's handling of a Waco case before Trump endorsed Paxton in May, the Tribune reported. Paxton won the runoff by nearly 30 points. Leaked audio from an October fundraiser captured Paxton saying high gas prices tied to the war in Iran were "dragging" on his campaign. He also said Cornyn "wants me to lose," according to the Tribune. In Tarrant County, the Fort Worth-area county that has swung between parties since 2016, about 38,000 voters backed Cornyn over Paxton in the runoff, the Tribune reported Sunday. Republican strategist Ross Hunt told the Tribune he expects many of them to "hold their nose and vote for Paxton." Fort Worth Mayor Mattie Parker is a Republican who said she would vote for two Democrats running statewide. She has not said whether she backs Paxton or Talarico. On the Democratic side, the Crockett primary left skepticism among some Black voters that Talarico's campaign has tried to address. [Funding: tracked labor-related PAC receipts $0.00; energy-related PAC receipts $0.00 (2026 cycle; retrieved 2026-11-01; partial topic registry)] [FEC source]
Disputed and unsupported claims
Two claims from the campaign deserve care. In October, Talarico, who has Type 1 diabetes, was off the trail with influenza for nine days. Paxton suggested Talarico was having a mental breakdown. Conservative influencers spread a claim that he was in an Ohio mental-health facility. Talarico denied it, the facility confirmed he had never been a patient, and his campaign provided home security images to The New York Times, the Tribune reported. Available evidence contradicts that claim.
Second, warnings by Paxton and Huffines that the country will be lost if Texas flips are predictions about consequences rather than factual claims that can be tested before the vote. Saying a vote for one candidate is a vote for Schumer [Funding: tracked labor-related PAC receipts $0.00; energy-related PAC receipts $0.00 (2026 cycle; retrieved 2026-10-30; partial topic registry)] [FEC source]'s agenda, or for Musk's, is a fair point about party control and money. But neither man is on the Texas ballot.
What to watch on Tuesday
Polls are open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. on Tuesday, FOX 7 Austin reported. The governor's race between Greg Abbott and Democrat Gina Hinojosa, which the ReconMR and Emerson polls also showed within a few points, is tracked on our Texas governor race page. Analysts are watching Tarrant County. There, Rice University political scientist Mark Jones told the Tribune, moderate Republicans "have been more willing to cross over" when they see a candidate as too far right. South Texas is another test. The ReconMR poll found Talarico's lead in San Antonio and the south was smaller in October than in September. [Funding: campaign funding data not verified] [Funding: campaign funding data not verified]
Several questions remain open. One is how many Cornyn primary voters skip the Senate race or split their tickets. Another is whether Libertarian support holds at the low single digits Emerson measured. A third is whether the Democratic early-vote edge that Republican officials described shows up in actual returns. None of the available polls or turnout figures settles those questions in advance.