2026 · U.S. SENATE
Virginia.
What do the markets say?
Virginia U.S. Senate election, 2026. Compare each source’s prices and how they have changed.
THE RACE OVER TIME
How the markets have moved
Provider history: Kalshi daily closing bid/ask midpoint and Polymarket historical outcome prices, plus recent stored daily quotes. Contracts may have less than a year of trading history. Missing observations remain missing; lines join available samples. Solid = Kalshi · dashed = Polymarket.
Accessible chart data
| Source | Party | UTC time | Price |
|---|
What each market says
INDEPENDENT CONTRACTS · NO AVERAGINGThe same race can have different resolution rules across sources. Each price below belongs to its own contract.
Kalshi
Source updated 10/16/2026, 12:48:19 PM ET
View contract at Kalshi ↗Question, identity & settlement rules
Will Republicans win the Senate race in Virginia?
SENATEVA-26-RIf a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Virginia for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source updated 9/15/2026, 7:05:27 PM ET
View contract at Kalshi ↗Question, identity & settlement rules
Will Democratics win the Senate race in Virginia?
SENATEVA-26-DIf a representative of the Democratic party is sworn in as a Senator of Virginia for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Polymarket
Source updated 10/25/2026, 5:30:37 PM ET
View contract at Polymarket ↗Question, identity & settlement rules
Will the Democrats win the Virginia Senate race in 2026?
630976:0This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Virginia U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Source updated 10/25/2026, 5:30:37 PM ET
View contract at Polymarket ↗Question, identity & settlement rules
Will the Republicans win the Virginia Senate race in 2026?
630977:0This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Virginia U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Reading the Virginia election markets
These prices describe contracts about the virginia u.s. senate election, 2026, rather than the share of voters supporting a party. A 60% contract price is not a prediction of a 60% vote share.
Kalshi prices use a valid two-sided bid/ask midpoint. Polymarket prices come from its outcome-price feed. We show Democratic, Republican and any verified independent contracts separately, without forcing the prices to add up to 100%.
History comes from provider time series and observations stored by 567politics. If a provider is unavailable, available stored history is labeled. Missing data stays missing.
Contract mapping checked 2026-10-25. Full methodology ↗