Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has sent Prime Minister Mark Carney a list of demands for the federal budget due on Thursday, November 5. In a letter reported by The Canadian Press on Sunday, he asked the government to remove all federal taxes on diesel until Canada Day. He also wants the GST on fuel suspended until summer and what he calls the fuel standard tax scrapped for good. In addition, he asked Carney to cut "wasteful and inflationary" spending and to keep his promise to bring down debt and deficits as a share of the economy. [Funding: local campaign funding not researched; FEC does not cover this country] [Funding: local campaign funding not researched; FEC does not cover this country]
The letter arrives at an awkward moment for the Conservatives. Records published by Elections Canada on Friday show the Liberals raised more money than the Conservatives in the third quarter of 2026, the first time that has happened since Poilievre became leader. Carney is also expected to call by-elections for six vacant seats soon. This article sets out what Poilievre is asking for and what the government has already done on fuel taxes. It also covers the New Democrats' view, the fundraising and polling data, and what to watch when Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne [Funding: local campaign funding not researched; FEC does not cover this country] tables the budget.
What the letter asks for
According to The Canadian Press, Poilievre's letter makes four main requests. The first is to eliminate all federal taxes on diesel until Canada Day, July 1, 2027. The second is to suspend the GST on fuel until summer. The third is to permanently scrap the fuel standard, which Poilievre describes as a tax. The fourth is to cut spending and meet two fiscal targets the Liberals set themselves: a falling debt-to-GDP ratio and a falling deficit-to-GDP ratio.
Poilievre argued that the tax measures would save Canadians money "whether they're buying groceries or toys for Christmas," as The Canadian Press summarized it. He said that keeping the promise on debt and deficits is "the bare minimum" Carney can do. The letter also made a broader charge. "You promised affordability. Yet everything is more expensive since you took office. While you cannot control things outside Canada, your decisions at home have only made things worse," it says.
Poilievre also said Carney's government has the biggest deficit ever outside the COVID-19 pandemic and the highest spending as a share of GDP since the debt crisis of the 1990s. Those are his claims. We did not check them against a full historical series for this article.
The diesel proposal is not new. Poilievre first set it out on September 27 at a gas station in suburban Ottawa, CBC News reported. At the time he said Canada already produces enough diesel to meet national demand, but transportation bottlenecks leave some regions dependent on U.S. imports. He proposed extending the full federal excise tax cut on fuel until July 1, 2027, removing the GST from fuel purchases, and permanently scrapping the federal industrial carbon tax and the Clean Fuel Standard. He argued that the latter two add costs to diesel production and discourage new investment in refineries.
What the government has already done on fuel
The Liberal government already suspended one fuel tax this year. On April 20, Ottawa temporarily removed the federal fuel excise tax, which is 10 cents a liter on gasoline and 4 cents a liter on diesel and aviation fuel, according to the Department of Finance. The department says gasoline prices fell by 11 cents a liter on the first day.
That relief was originally set to end in early September. In September, Champagne announced it would be extended, and the bill to do so, C-38, the Canadian Fuel Affordability Act, received royal assent on October 29. Under the law, the excise tax stays suspended until January 31, 2027. It then returns at half its normal rate from February 1 to March 31, and at full rates from April 1, 2027. The department estimates the extension will cost $2.9 billion, bringing total fuel tax relief in 2026-27 to $5.3 billion.
"By extending this tax relief, we are helping Canadians keep more of their hard-earned money, lowering transportation costs for businesses, and helping protect our economy from global disruptions," Champagne said in the department's release. When he announced the extension in September, he told reporters it was "the most impactful measure we can put together." He added that "reducing the federal fuel excise tax is a direct measure, it applies across the country," CBC News reported. Asked then why the cut was not permanent, he said the government would "see the state of the world" in January and decide.
The government links higher fuel prices to the war involving Iran and disruption to Middle East supply. Champagne said in September that "ongoing disruptions in the Middle East are driving up energy costs." That conflict, and the current diplomatic push to end it, is covered in our report on the Qatar-mediated talks.
So the gap between the two main parties on fuel is narrower than the rhetoric suggests. Both support suspending the federal excise tax for now. They differ on how long it should last, whether the GST on fuel should also be removed, and whether the Clean Fuel Standard and the industrial carbon price should go. Poilievre called the September extension "a modest extension" and "another Liberal half measure," while saying "any relief for working people is good news," according to CBC.
Ontario Premier Doug Ford, a Progressive Conservative, has pushed in the same direction. CBC reported that he responded to the September extension on X: "Good. Now let's make it permanent." [Funding: local campaign funding not researched; FEC does not cover this country]
The fiscal backdrop
The independent Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO) set out the fiscal starting point on October 20. Its Economic and Fiscal Outlook projects a deficit of $63.3 billion in 2026-27. That is lower than the PBO's June forecast because of stronger revenues from higher oil and commodity prices. But the PBO says new spending measures announced since June will cost an extra $52.6 billion over five years. That more than offsets the $37.4 billion improvement in fiscal room. It projects the deficit at $67.8 billion in 2030-31 and cumulative deficits of $333.3 billion over five years.
The PBO forecasts that the government will meet only one of its two fiscal anchors. It expects a balanced operating budget, which excludes debt-financed capital spending, in 2028-29. It expects the deficit-to-GDP ratio to rise in 2027-28 and 2029-30, missing the second anchor. Debt-to-GDP is projected to climb from 40.8% in 2026-27 to 42.6% in 2030-31. The PBO's projections do not include any new measures in Thursday's budget.
The PBO added a caution about the operating-budget target. "A balanced operating budget anchor should not be interpreted as a balanced fiscal position," it said. "By design, it excludes debt-financed capital spending, meaning borrowing and debt can continue to grow while the target is being achieved."
These numbers sit behind both sides of the debate. Conservatives cite them to argue for spending cuts. The government says its capital spending on defense, trade and infrastructure is investment that will pay off over time. Our earlier report on the Bank of Canada's rate increase and the deficit debate covers that argument in more detail. It includes the October 28 Commons vote on a Conservative motion asking Carney to testify on deficits.
The case for Poilievre's demands
Supporters of the Conservative position make three main arguments. The first is that fuel costs feed into almost everything else. Diesel moves food and goods, so cutting taxes on it could lower prices more broadly. The government itself makes a version of this argument for its excise tax holiday, saying it supports truckers and businesses in food, agriculture, construction and delivery.
The second argument is fiscal. Conservatives say the government should pay for relief by cutting what they call wasteful spending, rather than by borrowing more. They point to the PBO's finding that the deficit-to-GDP ratio will rise, which would break a promise the Liberals made themselves. The Conservatives made that case in a supply-day motion on October 27, The Hub reported. The motion said interest on the national debt is the government's fastest-growing cost and has more than doubled since 2021. It also said debt interest now exceeds spending on the Canada Health Transfer. The party attributed those figures to the PBO.
The third argument is about supply. Poilievre says scrapping the Clean Fuel Standard and the industrial carbon price would encourage investment in refineries and reduce Canada's reliance on U.S. diesel imports in some regions.
The case against
Critics on the left reject fuel tax cuts as the main answer. NDP Leader Avi Lewis called the government's excise tax holiday "corporate welfare" that rewards oil companies already profiting from higher prices, CBC reported. "People are getting gouged at the pumps, but another costly handout of public money to oil and gas companies is no solution," he said. "Even after the Carney government's $2.4-billion giveaway, gas prices continue to soar. In July, they were up more than 25 per cent compared to last year." He has proposed a windfall tax on oil companies instead.
Lewis has also argued that the government has money for large projects but not for households. In September, CBC News reported, he said Ottawa could afford a new West Coast pipeline and major military spending, but not the needs of ordinary Canadians. "The government is fast-tracking corporate Canada's wish list, and calling it a plan to fight a trade war," he said. He called for reforms to employment insurance, wage supports for workers hit by the trade war, more affordable housing, rent controls and publicly run grocery stores.
The government's answer to both sides is that it has already acted on affordability. The Department of Finance lists the fuel tax holiday alongside the Canada Groceries and Essentials Benefit and income tax cuts it says reach 22 million Canadians. It also cites the end of the consumer carbon tax and GST relief for first-time buyers of new homes. Champagne has said the budget will "outline the next steps in our plan to build a stronger, more resilient and more affordable Canada," according to The Canadian Press.
There is also a fiscal objection to Poilievre's package that applies on its own terms. The letter asks for both more tax relief and a falling deficit-to-GDP ratio. Removing the GST on fuel and extending the diesel tax cut would reduce revenue. The letter, as reported, does not say how much those measures would cost or which spending would be cut to cover them. Without those figures, readers cannot tell whether the two goals fit together.
How the arguments hold up
Some claims in this debate can be checked, and some cannot yet.
Poilievre's line that "everything is more expensive since you took office" ties rising prices to the government's decisions. The letter itself acknowledges that some causes are outside Canada's control. The government and the Bank of Canada point to energy prices tied to the Middle East conflict. A rise in prices after a government takes office does not, on its own, show that the government caused it. Judging how much of the increase comes from domestic policy would require evidence the letter does not provide.
Lewis's description of the excise tax holiday as a "handout" to oil companies implies that the companies keep the tax cut rather than passing it to drivers. The government's own figure, an 11-cent drop on the first day, suggests most of the gasoline cut reached consumers at first. That figure does not settle what happened in later months, and we did not find an independent study of pass-through for this year's cut.
On the fiscal anchors, the evidence is clearer. The PBO, an independent office of Parliament, projects that one of the two Liberal targets will be missed. Thursday's budget will show whether the government's own forecast agrees.
Fundraising: Liberals ahead for the first time under Poilievre
Canada's local disclosure system for political money is the quarterly party financial return filed with Elections Canada. Contributions are legally capped at $1,775 per donor per year, according to The Writ.
The third-quarter figures were posted on Friday, October 30. The Liberals raised $4,948,000 from nearly 36,000 contributions in July, August and September, according to Éric Grenier of The Writ. The Conservatives raised $3,971,000 from about 29,000 contributions. Grenier wrote that it is the first quarter since Poilievre became leader in which his party did not raise the most. He said the Liberals had not won a quarter since late 2021, and that this is only the seventh quarter out of 87 under the current rules in which they have come out on top. The Globe and Mail reported rounded figures of $4.9 million and $3.9 million, and said the Conservatives had led the second quarter with $5 million to the Liberals' $4.3 million.
The Globe also reported that the Liberal total included a $1,775-per-person fundraiser Carney headlined in Toronto in September. Elections Canada records show 445 people attended, according to the Globe. Liberal spokesperson Maggie Morris said the results reflect Canadians "rallying behind Mr. Carney." Two Conservative MPs told the Globe that party officials had briefed caucus that the party was still on track to hit its annual fundraising targets.
We did not find the NDP's or Bloc Québécois's third-quarter totals in the sources we reviewed. Party returns show money raised by parties, not by individual leaders, and they do not include money raised by riding associations or spent by third parties. Under our methodology, we report the funding records that a country's own disclosure system provides and note their limits.
The by-elections
There are six vacant seats in the House of Commons, where the Liberals hold a majority with 173 seats, the Globe reported. Three are in Quebec: Rosemont–La Petite-Patrie, previously held by the NDP; Saint-Hyacinthe–Bagot–Acton, previously held by the Bloc; and Laurier–Sainte-Marie, previously held by former Liberal minister Steven Guilbeault. One is Yorkton–Melville in Saskatchewan, which the Conservatives won with 77% of the vote last year. Two are in Ontario: Scarborough North, a Liberal stronghold, and Brantford–Brant South, where Conservative MP Larry Brock resigned this fall.
Brantford–Brant South has become a test for Poilievre. He appointed Kevin Davis as the candidate rather than holding an open nomination, the Globe reported. A long-time local Conservative, Dave Carrol, has since said he will run as an independent, with the backing of former MP Phil McColeman. The Conservatives won the seat with 52% in 2025.
What the polls show
The most recent public poll we reviewed with full methods is from Abacus Data. Its national survey was conducted online from October 16 to 21 among 1,500 Canadian adults drawn from blended opt-in panels and weighted to census data. Abacus paid for the survey itself. The sample is not a probability sample. Abacus gives a margin of error of plus or minus 2.53 percentage points only for "a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size," 19 times out of 20.
Asked "If an election was held today, which national political party would you vote for?", 48% of committed voters chose the Liberals, 32% the Conservatives, 9% the NDP and 6% the Bloc. Asked "Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the job the federal government led by Mark Carney is doing?", 59% approved and 26% disapproved. [Funding: local campaign funding not researched; FEC does not cover this country]
The same survey shows weaker ratings on the issues at the center of Poilievre's letter. Abacus asked whether respondents approve or disapprove of how the government is handling ten policy areas. Only 31% approved of its handling of the cost of living and inflation, down seven points from September, and 36% approved of its handling of the federal deficit and government spending. Among respondents who named the cost of living as a top issue, 37% said the Conservatives would handle it best and 32% chose the Liberals. The survey was taken before Poilievre's letter and before the Bank of Canada's October 28 rate increase.
What to watch
Champagne presents the budget at 4 p.m. ET on Thursday, November 5, two days after the U.S. midterm elections. The main questions are whether it extends or expands fuel tax relief beyond the current schedule, what it projects for the deficit-to-GDP ratio, and how it accounts for the government's capital spending plans. The by-election dates have not been announced. More on Canada's major policy debates is on our Canada issues page.