Final Michigan Senate polls all show El-Sayed ahead of Rogers, by 1 to 11 points; few measured Stevens' switch

Every public poll of Michigan's U.S. Senate race released in the final two weeks of the campaign shows Democrat Abdul El-Sayed ahead of Republican Mike Rogers$, but the margins range from 1 point to 11. Only a handful of those surveys were still interviewing voters on or after Sunday, November 1, when Rep. Haley Stevens$, the Democrat El-Sayed defeated in the August primary, endorsed Rogers. The one poll with published fieldwork through Monday found a 2-point race, among the closest results of the final week.

Polls in Michigan close as late as 9 p.m. ET today, according to CBS News. This story compiles the final surveys, explains how they were conducted and when, and sets out what they can and cannot say about the late endorsement. It does not report results. For background on the race, see our Michigan Senate race page.

The final polls

The table below lists the public polls released since October 23, as compiled by 270toWin, with fieldwork dates and methods where the pollster or a news report states them. "LV" means likely voters. Margins of error apply to each candidate's share; the margin of error on the gap between them is larger.

Sources for fieldwork and methods: the John Zogby Strategies release for its own poll, and Newsweek's poll roundup for the Emerson, AtlasIntel, Times/Siena, YouGov, CNN and InsiderAdvantage surveys. Newsweek attributed the Emerson figures to RealClearPolitics. Sample sizes and margins for the other polls are from 270toWin; their exact fieldwork dates were not confirmed for this story. The Zogby poll does not appear in 270toWin's list.

270toWin's average of 11 qualifying polls puts El-Sayed at 50.8% and Rogers at 44.9%, a gap of 5.9 points. Its method averages polls within seven days of the most recent poll, limited to one per pollster, and expands the window when there are fewer than five. Newsweek reported that the RealClearPolling average, which includes a different set of surveys, showed El-Sayed ahead by 5.3 points as of Tuesday morning.

Zogby (Nov. 2)

2

Emerson (Nov. 2)

6

AtlasIntel (Nov. 2)

8

Trafalgar (Nov. 2)

1

ResearchCo (Nov. 1)

3

Times/Siena (Nov. 1)

11

YouGov (Nov. 1)

4

Data for Progress (Oct. 30)

4

MSU (Oct. 29)

8

CNN/SSRS (Oct. 29)

7

Mitchell (Oct. 28)

7

Glengariff (Oct. 27)

6

MSU (Oct. 26)

2

InsiderAdvantage (Oct. 23)

1

Source: 270toWin, John Zogby Strategies

Show the numbers

Poll	El-Sayed lead
Zogby (Nov. 2)	2
Emerson (Nov. 2)	6
AtlasIntel (Nov. 2)	8
Trafalgar (Nov. 2)	1
ResearchCo (Nov. 1)	3
Times/Siena (Nov. 1)	11
YouGov (Nov. 1)	4
Data for Progress (Oct. 30)	4
MSU (Oct. 29)	8
CNN/SSRS (Oct. 29)	7
Mitchell (Oct. 28)	7
Glengariff (Oct. 27)	6
MSU (Oct. 26)	2
InsiderAdvantage (Oct. 23)	1

What the polls can say about the Stevens endorsement

Stevens appeared with Rogers at a Sunday church service in Detroit on November 1 and then announced her endorsement, as 567 Politics reported at the time. At that point, no public poll had measured its effect.

That is still largely true. Most of the final surveys with published fieldwork dates finished interviewing before Sunday. The Times/Siena, AtlasIntel and Emerson polls all list November 1 as their last day of fieldwork, which means at most a small share of their interviews could have come after the news. MS NOW reported that the Times/Siena poll was taken before the endorsement.

The John Zogby Strategies poll is the exception. It was conducted online from October 31 to November 2 among 1,001 likely voters or voters who had already voted, with a stated margin of sampling error of ±3.2 points. It found El-Sayed ahead 51% to 49%. The release does not break out interviews conducted before and after the endorsement, so it does not isolate the endorsement's effect. A 2-point lead with a 3.2-point margin of error on each candidate's share means the race was within the poll's margin of error.

The Zogby release also reported:

• Strength of support: 71% of El-Sayed's voters described their support as strong, compared with 57% of Rogers' voters.
• Top issues: inflation and affordability (53%), jobs and the economy (31%) and health care (27%).
• President Trump's job approval in Michigan: 38% approve, 62% disapprove.
• Coalitions: El-Sayed's support is strongest among Democrats, women, Hispanic and Black voters, voters under 30 and union voters; Rogers' among men, white voters, Generation X, baby boomers and older voters, and veterans.

Jeremy Zogby, the pollster, described the contest in the release as "the nation's quintessential battleground race exemplifying the national competition of Socialism vs. MAGA." That is the pollster's characterization, not a finding of the survey.

How to read the spread

The range in these polls runs from a 1-point Trafalgar result to an 11-point Times/Siena result. Differences in how pollsters define likely voters, how they contact people (online panels, phone calls or both), how they weight results, and when they were in the field all contribute. A poll is a snapshot of a period, not a forecast.

Sample size matters too. The Emerson poll's 500 interviews give it a stated margin of error of ±4.4 points on each candidate's share, while YouGov's 2,093 interviews give ±3 points. Smaller samples produce wider ranges of plausible results, so a 6-point lead in a 500-person poll is less precise than a 4-point lead in a 2,000-person poll. Averages such as 270toWin's reduce the influence of any single survey but inherit any error shared across pollsters.

Michigan has a recent history of close statewide results. Newsweek noted that Trump carried the state by about 1.4 points in 2024 and that Democrat Elissa Slotkin$ won its other Senate seat by less than a point the same year.

Early voting also limits how much a late event can move the result. The University of Florida Election Lab's final count shows 2,313,206 Michigan ballots cast before Election Day, the equivalent of 51.4% of the state's total 2022 vote. Voters who had already cast ballots by Sunday could not respond to the endorsement. For national early-vote figures and poll closing times, see our Election Day logistics report.

Ratings and markets

The Cook Political Report moved the race from Toss Up to Lean Democrat on Monday in its final Senate ratings. Newsweek reported that Sabato's Crystal Ball rates it Leans Democratic and Inside Elections rates it Tilt Democratic.

Newsweek also reported that traders on the prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi gave El-Sayed about an 81% chance of winning as of Tuesday morning. Market prices reflect bets, not voter responses, and are not polls.

What the campaigns and party figures said

Stevens said outside the church on Sunday that she was not trying to sway the election, according to MS NOW. "It's too late for him to put up another TV ad," she said. "But this is about Michigan and just one vote that I am taking." She said she had endorsed the Democratic nominee and that "he chose to close his campaign by saying I wasn't welcome."

Rogers, in an interview with NewsNation cited by MS NOW, pointed to the endorsement as evidence that El-Sayed was "angry and divisive." "We feel great where we are today," he said of the race.

El-Sayed, asked by MS NOW about the endorsement on Sunday, said: "At the end of the day, I actually don't think about Haley Stevens." His campaign said it raised more than $2.4 million on Sunday, CBS News reported. That is the campaign's own figure and has not been independently verified.

Rep. Debbie Dingell, a Michigan Democrat, told CBS on Monday that the endorsement was "galvanizing many communities" behind El-Sayed. Earlier October polling in the race is covered in our report on CNN's Senate battleground polls.$

Counting in Michigan

Michigan requires mailed absentee ballots to be received by the close of polls on Election Day, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures. Unlike states with post-Election Day grace periods, it will not count regular mailed ballots that arrive later. CBS News lists 9 p.m. ET as the state's latest poll closing time. 567 Politics will report the outcome when it is official or called by major news organizations.

Sources and method

Poll figures are from the pollsters' releases where those were available, from 270toWin's list and from Newsweek's roundup, as noted above. Margins in the chart are 567 Politics calculations from the published candidate shares, which are rounded. Statements by Stevens, Rogers and El-Sayed are from MS NOW's reporting, which cites a NewsNation interview for Rogers' remarks; Dingell's are from CBS News. For how we evaluate polls, see our methodology.

Differing perspectives

Did Haley Stevens' endorsement of Mike Rogers two days before the election change the Michigan Senate race?

Each position is summarized as its supporters make it, with equal weight and in alphabetical order. A summary is not an endorsement; the evidence for each is weighed in the story above.

• No: the race was already moving before the endorsement

  Who holds it: Cook Political Report

  The Cook Political Report said its decision to move the race from Toss Up to Lean Democrat was in the making before the endorsement and that the endorsement did not change its view. It based the change on new public and private polling, including the Times/Siena survey showing an 11-point spread, while noting that operatives on both sides do not expect a double-digit result.

  In their words: Cook Political Report ↗

• Yes, toward El-Sayed: it set off a backlash

  Who holds it: Rep. Debbie Dingell and Michigan Democrats

  Dingell said the endorsement was having the opposite effect of what Stevens intended. "You're seeing a backlash," she said. "It's galvanizing many communities." She said Black pastors had asked who said Stevens represented them, and El-Sayed's campaign reported raising more than $2.4 million on the day of the endorsement.

  In their words: CBS News ↗

• Yes, toward Rogers: it exposes Democratic division

  Who holds it: Mike Rogers and his campaign

  In an interview with NewsNation, Rogers pointed to the endorsement as evidence that El-Sayed was "angry and divisive," after Stevens accepted his invitation to attend a Sunday church service with him and the two appeared together before reporters. Of the contest in its final days, Rogers said, "We feel great where we are today."

  In their words: MS NOW (citing NewsNation interview) ↗