Final UNH poll has Pappas up 12 on Sununu as New Hampshire's governor race ties at 48%

New Hampshire's final University of New Hampshire poll of the 2026 campaign shows Democrat Chris Pappas$ ahead of Republican John E. Sununu by 12 points in the open U.S. Senate race. The same survey finds Republican Gov. Kelly Ayotte and Democrat Cinde Warmington tied at 48% each. That tie is the main change from a month ago, when Ayotte led by four points in the same poll. A separate Saint Anselm College poll taken about a week earlier showed both Pappas and Ayotte ahead by seven to eight points. Voters go to the polls on Tuesday, November 3.

The UNH Survey Center released the poll on Sunday night, November 1, InDepthNH reported. The survey's archive page summarizes the findings this way: Pappas "continues to lead," Ayotte "is statistically tied" with Warmington, and "most expect her to win re-election." Our race pages track the New Hampshire Senate contest and the New Hampshire governor's race.

How the UNH poll was done

The Granite State Poll is run by the UNH Survey Center and was sponsored by WHDH (Channel 7), according to the release text published by Manchester Ink Link. It was fielded online from October 27 to October 31, 2026.

Members of the Survey Center's Granite State Panel were invited to take part, and 1,857 of them completed the survey online, InDepthNH reported. Another 325 New Hampshire residents completed it after receiving an invitation by text message. In total, 2,182 residents took part. Of those, 2,040 were classed as likely general election voters. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 2.2 points for likely voters. For each of the two congressional districts, it is plus or minus 3.1 points. The First District sample had 1,032 likely voters, and the Second District sample had 1,005.

The ballot figures include voters who lean toward a candidate, and they combine people who said they will vote with people who said they have already voted. We were not able to open the full PDF with tabular results, so we have not verified the exact question wording or the weighting method. The margin of error covers sampling error only, not errors from turnout models or question design. Our methodology page explains how 567 Politics reports polls.

Senate: Pappas 54%, Sununu 42%

Including leaners, 54% of likely voters said they will vote or have voted for Pappas, according to the release. Sununu had 42%. Constitution Party candidate Edmond Laplante had 2%, less than 1% backed someone else, and 2% were undecided.

The partisan breakdown explains much of the movement since September. Pappas now has the support of 99% of Democrats, up from 93% in September. Sununu has 89% of Republicans, about the same as in September (87%). Among independents, 54% back Pappas, up from 43% in September.

Neither candidate is popular. Among likely voters, 39% have a favorable view of Pappas and 45% an unfavorable one. For Sununu, 35% are favorable and 54% unfavorable. The release notes that "the tone of the campaign has been very negative in recent weeks" and that both campaigns "have succeeded in lowering the favorability of their opponent." Asked who they expect to win, 57% of likely voters said Pappas, 27% said Sununu, and 16% were unsure.

The Saint Anselm College Survey Center found a closer but similar race. Its poll of 1,672 likely voters, taken online October 19 and 20, had Pappas ahead 50% to 43%. Respondents were cell phone users drawn at random from a sample of registered voters. The data were weighted for party registration, age, gender, geography and education. The margin of sampling error was plus or minus 2.4 points at 95% confidence. Pappas was viewed favorably by 41% and unfavorably by 56%. Sununu's ratings were 40% favorable and 56% unfavorable.

• Pappas
• Sununu

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Saint Anselm (Oct. 19-20)Pappas: 50%Sununu: 43%

UNH (Oct. 27-31)Pappas: 54%Sununu: 42%

Saint Anselm (Oct. 19-20)UNH (Oct. 27-31)

Source: UNH Survey Center, Nov. 1, Saint Anselm College Survey Center, Oct. 22

Show the numbers

Poll (field dates)	Pappas	Sununu
Saint Anselm (Oct. 19-20)	50%	43%
UNH (Oct. 27-31)	54%	42%

Neil Levesque, executive director of the New Hampshire Institute of Politics, said the Senate ballot "closely mirrors the generic ballot," NHJournal reported. "For Sununu to narrow the gap, he would need to perform better than the Republican baseline reflected in the generic ballot," he said. In the same poll, Democrats led the generic congressional ballot 52% to 43%, and 38% of respondents approved of President Donald Trump's job performance.

The seat is open because Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen$ is retiring. Pappas was first elected to the U.S. House from the First District in 2018. Sununu held this Senate seat from 2003 to 2009, when Shaheen defeated him, the New Hampshire Bulletin reported.

Governor: a 48% to 48% tie

The governor's race "has tightened significantly in the past month as Democrats have shifted toward Democratic challenger Cinde Warmington and away from incumbent Kelly Ayotte," the UNH release says. "This race is now too close to call."

Including leaners, 48% of likely voters said they will vote or have voted for Warmington, and 48% said the same for Ayotte. Libertarian Stephen Villee had 2%, less than 1% backed someone else, and 1% were undecided. In September, Ayotte led 47% to 43% in the UNH poll.

The shift came mostly from Democrats. Warmington now has 92% of Democrats, up from 83% in September. Ayotte has 94% of Republicans, compared with 92% before. Independents still favor Ayotte, 52% to 37%.

Ayotte remains better known and better liked. In the UNH poll, 41% had a favorable view of her and 44% an unfavorable one. For Warmington, the figures were 29% and 42%, with 9% saying they did not know enough to judge. Warmington's net rating improved from -26 in September to -13. Ayotte's fell from +5 to -3.

The Saint Anselm poll showed a different picture. It had Ayotte ahead 50% to 42%, with 51% approving of her job performance. The two polls used different samples and methods, and the UNH survey was taken about a week later. They should not be averaged as if they were one measurement. NHJournal noted that a Republican governor outperforming the party's overall standing in the state has been "a trend since 2016."

New Hampshire is one of two states that elect governors to two-year terms, the New Hampshire Bulletin noted. Ayotte, a former U.S. senator and state attorney general, won in 2024 and is seeking her first reelection. Our profile of Kelly Ayotte lists her current office. Warmington served on the Executive Council from 2021 to 2025, and this is her second run for governor.

• Ayotte
• Warmington

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Saint Anselm (Oct. 19-20)Ayotte: 50%Warmington: 42%

UNH (Oct. 27-31)Ayotte: 48%Warmington: 48%

Saint Anselm (Oct. 19-20)UNH (Oct. 27-31)

Source: UNH Survey Center, Nov. 1, Saint Anselm College Survey Center, Oct. 22

Show the numbers

Poll (field dates)	Ayotte	Warmington
Saint Anselm (Oct. 19-20)	50%	42%
UNH (Oct. 27-31)	48%	48%

House races and the Legislature

In the First Congressional District, the seat Pappas is leaving, Democrat Stefany Shaheen led Republican Anthony DiLorenzo 56% to 43% in the UNH poll. Her support rose 10 points since September, while DiLorenzo's was about the same, the release says. The Saint Anselm poll, taken earlier, had a closer race: Shaheen 46%, DiLorenzo 42%.

In the Second District, Democratic Rep. Maggie Goodlander$ led Republican Lily Tang Williams 56% to 41% in the UNH poll. Independent Robbie Mahrou had 2%. Saint Anselm had Goodlander ahead 54% to 38%.

Further down the ballot, 53% of likely voters said they would back the Democratic candidate for Executive Council and 41% the Republican. For the state House, 51% chose the Democrat in their district and 38% the Republican. These generic questions do not translate directly into seat counts.

The case each side is making in the Senate race

Both Senate candidates have centered their campaigns on the cost of living but disagree about the causes and remedies.

For Pappas. Pappas argues that Trump's tariffs and the war with Iran have raised prices, and that a Democratic Senate would act as a check on the administration. At the final WMUR debate on October 28, he backed adding "billions of dollars" to the Low-Income Home Energy Assistance Program this winter and exempting small businesses and groceries from tariffs, NHPR reported. "This election is about Team New Hampshire v. Team Trump," he said.

On Social Security, Pappas said Sununu's earlier plan for voluntary private accounts would have meant fewer people paying into the system and put the program at greater risk. He said he supports having wealthy people pay a greater share and raising monthly payments for people with the lowest incomes. On Iran, he said he opposes ending the war with a deal that sends money to Iran's leaders, but he called the conflict "an endless war with no easy off ramp." On Monday, he told WMUR that voters say "things are costing too much" and that Republicans have been "giving away their agency to Donald Trump every day."

For Sununu. Sununu argues that inflation began under President Joe Biden and that Pappas voted for the policies behind it. At the debate, he blamed the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 for high prices. "Chris Pappas voted for that inflation," he said, NHPR reported. He called for permitting reform to speed new energy infrastructure, including natural gas and electricity projects, as the long-term answer to heating costs.

Sununu said his Social Security plan would have made the system "fully solvent" while keeping a "guaranteed minimum benefit." He criticized Pappas for proposing a commission, calling that "hiding under the table." He said Pappas was "a little naive" to rule out money as part of an Iran deal. He has also stressed his independence from Trump. He said he opposed the president's "trade war with Canada" and a fund for people prosecuted over the January 6 riot, and he named Maine Sen. Susan Collins as his model. On Monday, he told WMUR that Pappas "hasn't made anyone's life more affordable." He added: "68 out of 68 times he has voted to increase taxes." We have not been able to verify that count.$

Pappas has made Trump's endorsement of Sununu a central theme. Sununu has answered that he would be his own senator. One Sununu ad says, "I've never even met the man," the New Hampshire Bulletin reported.

The case each side is making in the governor's race

For Ayotte. Ayotte argues that New Hampshire's low-tax model is the basis of its economy. At an October 22 forum hosted by NHPR and the Granite State News Collaborative, she pointed to bipartisan housing laws on accessory dwelling units, office-to-housing conversions and permitting, NHPR reported. She opposes an income or sales tax. She said Warmington had not explained how she would pay for her proposals without raising taxes. Ayotte backs letting towns adopt a school property tax cap and defends the Education Freedom Account program, which helps eligible families pay for education outside their assigned public school. She has also attacked Warmington's past lobbying work. Warmington's former clients included Purdue Pharma, and Ayotte has said, "We can't elect an opioid lobbyist to be our governor," the New Hampshire Bulletin reported.

For Warmington. Warmington argues that state budget decisions have pushed costs onto towns and property taxpayers. "This economy is simply and fundamentally broken, and we need to fix it," she said at the forum. She wants to reverse budget cuts Ayotte signed, end funding for Education Freedom Accounts, and legalize and regulate cannabis, the Bulletin reported. She said the state should comply with court rulings on school funding. Pressed on how she would pay for a larger state share of education costs, she said communities are already paying and that the answer would require bipartisan negotiation. NHPR reported that she did not name a specific new revenue source.

Both candidates support a temporary moratorium on new data centers.

Question 2: a property tax cap decided town by town

Every city and town will also vote on Question 2, which asks whether to limit property tax growth for local school districts, WMUR explained. It is about 240 separate local measures, not one statewide vote. Each needs 60% approval in a community to pass. Where it passes, school property taxes could rise only with inflation and new construction. Central office spending would be capped at 6% of the budget, and bond-funded capital costs would be exempt.

Republican lawmakers and the governor say the cap gives voters more say over property taxes. School districts have warned of major budget cuts where it passes, WMUR reported. In the Saint Anselm poll, the cap had 57% support, below the 60% threshold, though the threshold applies locally rather than statewide.

What the polls cannot tell us

The two final polls agree that Pappas and both House Democrats lead. They disagree on the governor's race. Several explanations are possible, including different field dates, panels, weighting and likely-voter screens. Neither poll can settle which is closer to the result.

Republicans have questioned the UNH numbers. A Monday opinion column in NHJournal, a right-leaning outlet, quoted an unnamed Republican operative calling the survey "garbage." The column argued that UNH's final polls have understated winners' margins before. It said the 2024 final UNH poll had Ayotte ahead 48% to 44% before she won by more than nine points, and that its 2018 final poll had the governor's race tied before then-Gov. Chris Sununu, John E. Sununu's brother, won by seven. The same column acknowledged that UNH "has also gotten some races pretty close." Past misses do not show that this poll is wrong, and a few selected races are not a full accuracy record.

The UNH release also found that Democrats "are generally more interested in the election." If that difference in interest does not show up in turnout, the polls could overstate Democratic support. The reverse is also possible. Polls measure answers given during specific days. They are not forecasts of the result.

Money in the Senate race

We checked Federal Election Commission summaries on November 2 for the 2026 cycle through October 14.

• Pappas's Senate candidacy reported $23.7 million in receipts. That included $21.1 million from individuals, $1.4 million from other political committees and $1.2 million in transfers from other authorized committees. It reported $2.0 million in cash on hand.
• Sununu's Senate candidacy reported $5.7 million in receipts. That included $3.2 million from individuals, $574,000 from other political committees and $1.8 million in transfers. It reported $1.7 million in cash on hand.

The 567 Politics funding tool holds a snapshot for Pappas's House committee, retrieved October 31. It lists about $1.1 million from registered political committees on the FEC's line for such contributions. It excludes individual and conduit donations and does not net refunds. The tool has no verified snapshot for Ayotte, and governors' campaigns report to the state, not the FEC. These are candidate-committee figures only. They exclude outside spending, which we did not review for this article, and later filings. A contribution does not show that a donor shaped a candidate's positions.

What to watch on Tuesday

New Hampshire allows same-day voter registration. Those registering on Election Day must show proof of identity, age, citizenship and domicile, the New Hampshire Bulletin reported.

Because the national Senate map favors Republicans, Democrats who hope to win control will likely need to hold seats like this one, the New Hampshire Bulletin noted. Our report on the Cook Political Report's latest House ratings and our coverage of national generic-ballot polls give the national context.

Differing perspectives

How should New Hampshire's next U.S. senator respond to rising household costs?

Each position is summarized as its supporters make it, with equal weight and in alphabetical order. A summary is not an endorsement; the evidence for each is weighed in the story above.

• Lower costs with domestic energy and housing flexibility

  Who holds it: John E. Sununu and his campaign

  Sununu says lower costs start with domestic production and the infrastructure to deliver energy, including transmission and natural gas access. On housing, he calls for removing tariffs on building materials to cut construction costs and for giving New Hampshire more flexibility over the six or seven federal housing programs that now carry separate requirements and limits.

  In their words: WMUR, 'Conversation with the Candidate' ↗

• Lower costs with tariff relief and health, housing and fuel aid

  Who holds it: Rep. Chris Pappas and his campaign

  Pappas says he is fighting to lower costs for families and small businesses, from utilities to groceries. His campaign page lists protecting Granite Staters from tariffs and reimbursing small businesses, restoring enhanced ACA premium tax credits, restoring the expanded Child Tax Credit, cutting red tape to build homes, and tax cuts for first-time home buyers and for families' energy bills.

  In their words: Chris Pappas for Senate campaign website ↗