Erdoğan extends hotel-tax relief and announces Gabar oil finds; exporters and CHP fault the lira policy

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said on Monday that Turkey will keep a reduced hotel accommodation tax for another year and extend a wage subsidy for licensed tourism businesses until 2028. Speaking after a cabinet meeting in Ankara, he also announced oil finds at two new fields in the Gabar mountains of Şırnak province and said record export figures showed the government's policies were working.

Exporters and the main opposition party read the same numbers differently. The head of the Turkish Exporters Assembly (TİM) said last week that a currency-conversion support scheme had fallen short. A lawmaker from the Republican People's Party (CHP) told parliament's budget committee that a policy of holding down the lira was eroding exporters' ability to compete.

What Erdoğan announced#

Erdoğan spoke after the 75th meeting of his cabinet. The presidency published the full text of his remarks. He opened with the explosion at a steel plant in Aliağa, near İzmir, that killed 16 workers on Monday. He said judicial and administrative investigations had begun and that those responsible for any negligence would be identified. That blast is covered in 567politics' earlier report.

He then turned to the economy. "Despite the spiral of instability surrounding us, we are continuing our development journey without interruption, in stability and confidence," he said. He said the export and tourism figures released last week "confirmed once again Turkey's shining star in the middle of regional tensions."

The main decisions were:

• Accommodation tax. The reduced rate first applied in April will be kept for another year. Erdoğan did not give the rate. The hotel trade press reported in May that a presidential decision of April 30 cut the tax from 2% to 1% until December 31, 2026.
• Tourism wage support. A subsidy for staff at businesses licensed by the Culture and Tourism Ministry will be extended until 2028.
• Gabar oil. Production began in October at two new fields, named Gaziler and Çardaklı. Erdoğan said initial estimates put 135 million barrels of oil in place there.

He also said that more than 4,000 members of "the organization," the term the government uses for the militant PKK, had begun integrating into Iraqi security forces in Sinjar, in northern Iraq, the week before last. He described this as a step toward state authority there. He linked the economic outlook to what the government calls the "Terror-Free Turkey" process. He said the full benefit for tourism and exports would come once it succeeds.

On the investment fund scandal that has been on the agenda since September 17, he said the government was resolving it "step by step" under a road map. "There will not be the slightest concession," he said. That case is covered in 567politics' reporting on the fund probe.

The figures he cited#

Erdoğan cited the following numbers. 567politics has not independently checked the forecasts or targets. The October export data were first published on November 4 by the Trade Ministry and TİM.

He said October exports were the third-highest monthly total in the republic's history and the highest for any October. The trade deficit fell 11.4% in October, he said. He said the government set a target of $410 billion for annual goods and services exports at the start of 2026. The data suggest that target has been passed and that the total will reach $413 billion, he said.

He also set longer goals. The government aims to raise exports to $300 billion and tourism revenue to more than $70 billion, he said, without giving a date.

Erdoğan argued that the gains did not come about on their own. "These increases are not increases that formed by themselves or were driven by world trends," he said. He credited exporters and tourism workers, as well as government investment, incentives and support. He also pointed to the growth of Turkish Airlines, the spread of Turkish television series abroad and the country's rising brand value.

Not every tourism figure moved the same way. Third-quarter data reported by the trade site Turizm Aktüel showed the number of visitors fell 1.6% to 23.25 million. Total revenue still rose 5% to $25.29 billion, because spending per person rose to $1,087.69. The site said spending on clothing and shoes fell 8.5% to $1.86 billion. It said that pointed to a weaker price advantage for shopping. Spending on health care by foreign visitors rose 23.6% to $1.033 billion. That was the first time it topped $1 billion in a single quarter.

Gabar oil#

Gabar has become central to the government's energy message. Erdoğan said current production is 84,000 barrels a day from 184 wells. He said that covers 8% of Turkey's oil consumption. He said Gabar has produced 75.4 million barrels in total so far, a contribution of $6 billion toward closing the current-account deficit.

With the new fields and further wells, daily output in the region will rise by 30%, he said. In the second half of 2027, about 230 wells will push daily output past 100,000 barrels. "At today's value, a daily output of 120,000 barrels means a contribution of $4.4 billion a year to our economy," he said. He did not say when output would reach 120,000 barrels.

He also said natural gas from the Black Sea now supplies 4 million households. A floating production platform sent to the field on October 17 will double that output and raise the number of households to 8 million, he said.

The state news agency Anadolu led its report with the oil announcement. 567politics found no independent estimate of the new fields' reserves by Monday evening. "Oil in place" refers to the total amount in a reservoir. Only part of it can usually be recovered.

Exporters: support has fallen short#

Exporters have welcomed the totals while warning about costs. At the release of the October data on November 4, TİM chairman Mustafa Gültepe said exporters had performed well despite all the difficulties. But he said they had hoped for an increase in a 3% currency-conversion support, meant to narrow the gap between inflation and the exchange rate.

"The result was not what we expected," he said in a statement published by TİM. "Bureaucracy increased, and for many firms the actual support rate fell below even 1%. We have been receiving intense complaints from our exporters for a month."

The complaint reflects a wider debate about the lira. When domestic prices rise faster than the currency weakens, Turkish goods become more expensive abroad in dollar terms. Annual consumer inflation was 29.77% in October, the statistics office said, as 567politics reported.

The CHP: a suppressed currency#

The CHP made a sharper case in parliament's Plan and Budget Committee on November 4, during debate on the Trade Ministry's 2027 budget. Mahir Polat, a CHP lawmaker from İzmir, said the ministry's presentation showed "rosy" tables that did not match economic reality, according to a summary published by the party.

Polat said the government had set a target of $500 billion in exports for 2023 and was still $220 billion short. He said capacity use in textiles and clothing had fallen to about 60%, and that jobs in the sector had dropped from more than 1.2 million to about 860,000.

"By keeping the exchange rate below the real rate, not even passing the inflation difference on to the currency, we have come to the point of destroying our exporters' competitiveness," he said. He said exporters now want the central bank's foreign-exchange support raised from 3% to 6%, "so that we can at least breathe." He also noted that Ankara's exports rose about 27% in the first half of the year, driven largely by defense and high-tech goods.

Hotels: welcome, with requests#

Hotel groups welcomed the original tax cut in May. The cut came after the war that the United States and Israel began against Iran on February 28 hit bookings from Europe, the trade outlet Turizm Ekonomi reported. The government also offered a 60 billion lira credit package for the sector.

Erkan Yağcı, chairman of the Turkish Hoteliers Federation (TÜROFED), said then that the 1% rate would help the sector keep its competitiveness and price stability. Müberra Eresin, chair of the Turkish Hoteliers Association (TÜROB), also welcomed it. But she asked for support to be better targeted by segment, especially for city hotels. She also asked that the tax be turned into a fixed charge paid directly by guests, as in other countries. 567politics did not find a reaction from the hotel groups to Monday's extension by Monday evening.

Competing arguments#

The government argues that record exports and tourism revenue during regional wars show its program is working. It says incentives, investment and energy finds such as Gabar will lift growth further.

Exporters accept the records but say their costs are rising faster than the lira is weakening. They want more generous support and less paperwork.

The CHP argues that the headline records hide lost markets, a missed 2023 target and job losses in labor-heavy sectors. It blames a policy of keeping the lira strong.

Hotel owners welcome tax relief but want it targeted and want the tax shifted onto guests.

Readers can compare where Turkey's parties stand on economic issues on the Turkey political spectrum. Erdoğan's recent energy diplomacy is covered in 567politics' report on his South Korea visit. Climate talks in Antalya are covered in 567politics' report on COP31.

COP31 and the budget calendar#

Erdoğan said he would travel to Antalya on Tuesday for the COP31 climate summit, where he expects more than 100 heads of state and government over three days. 567politics had not seen a published decision setting out the extended accommodation tax rate by Monday evening. The Plan and Budget Committee continues its review of the 2027 budget this month, giving the opposition further chances to press ministers on exports and the lira.

Differing perspectives

Do Turkey's record export and tourism figures show current economic policy is working, or do exporters and hotels need more support?

Each position is summarized as its supporters make it, with equal weight and in alphabetical order. A summary is not an endorsement; the evidence for each is weighed in the story above.

• Exporters need stronger currency support

  Who holds it: Turkish Exporters Assembly (TİM) chairman Mustafa Gültepe

  Gültepe says exporters performed well in October despite all the difficulties. But they had expected the 3% currency-conversion support to rise, to narrow the gap between inflation and the exchange rate. Instead, he says, bureaucracy increased and the actual support rate fell below 1% for many firms, and TİM has received intense complaints from exporters for a month.

  In their words: Türkiye İhracatçılar Meclisi ↗

• Records show the program is working

  Who holds it: President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan

  Erdoğan says Turkey keeps growing in stability despite the instability around it, with record October and ten-month exports and record tourism revenue. He argues the gains did not come on their own or from world trends, but from exporters, tourism workers and the government's investment, incentives and support. He extends the accommodation tax cut and tourism wage support and points to new Gabar oil fields.

  In their words: Presidency of the Republic of Türkiye ↗

• Suppressed lira is hurting competitiveness

  Who holds it: CHP İzmir lawmaker Mahir Polat

  Polat says the Trade Ministry presents rosy tables while exports remain $220 billion short of the $500 billion target set for 2023. He says keeping the exchange rate below its real level destroys exporters' competitiveness, textile jobs have fallen from over 1.2 million to about 860,000, and exporters want central bank foreign-exchange support doubled from 3% to 6%.

  In their words: Cumhuriyet Halk Partisi ↗

• Welcome relief, but target it better

  Who holds it: Turkish Hoteliers Association (TÜROB) chair Müberra Eresin, speaking in May

  Eresin welcomed the cut in the accommodation tax from 2% to 1% and the 60 billion lira support package, saying they ease costs and protect jobs after the war hit bookings. She argues support should be designed by segment, with fairer help for city hotels, and that the tax should become a fixed charge paid directly by guests, as elsewhere.

  In their words: Turizm Ekonomi ↗

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