Early Voter Poll: economy and democracy top voters' concerns; most blame Trump's policies for high prices

The first national results from the main Election Day survey of American voters were published on the evening of Nov. 3, and they describe an electorate that is unhappy with the country's direction, worried about prices and critical of President Donald Trump's handling of the economy. The figures come from The Voter Poll by SSRS, a survey run on behalf of a group of news organizations, and the first releases began shortly after 5 p.m. Eastern time, while polls were still open in most of the country.

These are early numbers. They have not yet been adjusted to match actual vote counts, which is a standard final step for this kind of survey, so some figures may move during the night. This report covers what the poll's sponsors had published as of about 7:15 p.m. ET on Nov. 3. It reports no vote totals and makes no projection about any race.

What The Voter Poll is

The survey is run by SSRS, a research firm, for ABC, the Associated Press, CBS, CNN, Fox News Media, MSNOW and NBC, according to the 2026 methods statement published by ABC News. The news organizations write the questionnaire together. Each outlet labels the results with its own brand: AP calls it "The AP Voter Poll," CNN calls it the "CNN Voter Poll" and NBC calls it the "NBC News Exit Poll." The numbers in this report come from that one shared survey, so findings that match across outlets are not independent confirmations of one another.

The poll combines two kinds of interviews. The first is a large pre-election survey of verified registered voters, reached online and by phone from Oct. 19 to Nov. 3. The methods statement said about 76,130 such interviews were planned. Respondents were drawn from state voter files and from two survey panels, SSRS's own probability-based panel and Verasight's verified panel. People who had not yet voted were to be contacted again from the evening of Nov. 2 through poll closing to confirm whether and how they voted.

The second part is a traditional exit poll. Interviewers stood outside about 30 sampled polling places in each of 15 states on Election Day: Alaska, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas and Wisconsin. The two parts are blended and weighted to estimate each state's electorate. CNN's methodology note says the survey is expected to include about 100,000 voters nationwide. The BBC described the national sample in its early results as more than 79,000 people.

SSRS estimates the national margin of sampling error at plus or minus 0.6 percentage points. That figure is for the full national sample and assumes a design effect of 3.0. It is larger for subgroups and for individual states, ranging from about 2 points in large-sample states such as Michigan and Texas to more than 8 points in North Dakota. The methods statement notes that there is no industry-agreed way to calculate a margin of error for a sample that mixes probability and opt-in panels, so the stated margins are estimates. Question wording, question order and other non-sampling errors can add to the total error.

The economy and democracy lead the issue list

Asked to choose the most important issue facing the country, 39% of voters picked the economy and 32% picked the state of democracy, according to the NBC News Exit Poll write-up and the BBC. The BBC put immigration third at 14%. Health care, foreign policy and crime were each chosen by smaller shares.

Economy

39%

State of democracy

32%

Immigration

14%

Source: NBC News Exit Poll, BBC News

Show the numbers

Issue	Share of voters
Economy	39%
State of democracy	32%
Immigration	14%

The outlets describe the immigration figure slightly differently. AP's summary, republished by PBS News, said "only about 1 in 10" named immigration or health care. The BBC's figure of 14% is more precise. The difference may reflect rounding or an update to the preliminary data between releases; readers should treat the exact immigration share as provisional.

"The state of democracy" is a broad answer. CNN's analysis said it "often encompasses Democratic opposition to Trump," but the question does not tell us what each respondent meant. Some voters who choose it may be worried about federal actions around elections, others about the conduct of officials in either party, and others about issues such as voter fraud. The poll's top-line result does not separate those meanings.

A separate question asked which issues were crucial to a voter's choice for Congress. AP reported that roughly half of voters called government corruption and the cost of living "crucial," far more than said the same about immigration enforcement, the war with Iran or data centers for artificial intelligence. In the NBC write-up, 90% of voters said corruption was a crucial or major factor. Voters were divided on which party would handle it better: 36% said Democrats, 31% said Republicans and about a third said neither.

A mostly unhappy electorate

The poll asked voters how they feel about the way things are going in the country. According to the BBC, 38% said they were angry and 37% said they were dissatisfied. Eighteen percent said they were satisfied and 7% said they were enthusiastic.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

Angry38%

Dissatisfied37%

Satisfied18%

Enthusiastic7%

AngryDissatisfiedSatisfiedEnthusiastic

Source: BBC News, citing The Voter Poll by SSRS

Show the numbers

Feeling	Share of voters
Angry	38%
Dissatisfied	37%
Satisfied	18%
Enthusiastic	7%

AP reported that dissatisfaction was especially high in Democratic-leaning states such as California and Massachusetts, but that even in strongly Republican states a majority were at least dissatisfied. More than half of voters told the poll they expect life to be worse for the next generation, AP said in its live coverage.

Trump's approval and the economy

NBC reported that 38% of voters approved of Trump's job performance. In his first midterm, in 2018, 45% of voters approved, NBC said. CNN described about 6 in 10 voters as disapproving, with about half disapproving strongly. CNN also reported that about one-fifth of voters who backed Trump in 2024 now disapprove of his performance.

On the economy, 75% of voters said conditions are not so good or poor and 25% said excellent or good, according to the BBC. In 2018, NBC noted, 68% said the economy was in good shape. Asked about their own families, 44% said they are worse off than two years ago, 38% about the same and 18% better off.

Seventy-nine percent said inflation had caused their family severe or moderate hardship in the past year. Asked about the cause of higher-than-usual prices, 62% said they were more because of Trump's policies and 38% said more because of factors beyond his control. Sixty-five percent said Trump's policies have worsened economic conditions, 28% said they improved conditions and 8% said they have had no impact. AP reported that about two-thirds said Trump's tariff policies have hurt the national economy.

What the government data show

Voter perceptions of the economy are opinions, and they do not by themselves establish what caused price changes. Official data give context. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Oct. 14 that the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers rose 3.7% in the 12 months ending September 2026, not seasonally adjusted, up from 3.4% for the 12 months ending August. The index rose 0.6% in September on a seasonally adjusted basis, and gasoline prices rose 9.1% that month, accounting for more than half of the monthly increase, according to the release. The food index was unchanged in September, with food at home down 0.1%, a detail that fits the administration's argument that some grocery prices are easing.

The labor market has softened slightly. The seasonally adjusted national unemployment rate for the civilian population aged 16 and older was 4.2% in September 2026, compared with 4.0% in January 2025, the month Trump returned to office, according to the BLS series LNS14000000 (data retrieved Nov. 3, 2026). October 2025 has no reading because of the 2025 lapse in appropriations, and January 2026 figures reflect updated population controls, so month-to-month comparisons across that point should be made with care.

Other measures cut the other way. The White House said on Oct. 29 that the economy grew at a 3.4% annual rate in the third quarter, citing Commerce Department figures, with business investment growing at almost 13%. Strong output growth and high voter dissatisfaction can coexist when prices for frequently bought goods, such as gasoline and groceries, rise faster than wages.

How much of the price increase is due to tariffs, the war with Iran, energy markets or earlier policies is a question for economic analysis, and the poll does not answer it. The poll measures who voters blame. A claim that the share of voters blaming a policy proves that the policy caused the problem would confuse a belief with a finding.

Immigration, AI and the parties

The NBC write-up reported that 57% of voters said Trump's immigration enforcement actions have gone too far, 23% said they have been about right and 21% said they have not gone far enough. Fifty-nine percent disapproved of Immigration and Customs Enforcement and 41% approved. Our earlier report on deportation and arrest data covers what official figures show about enforcement.

On artificial intelligence, 57% said AI will do more to hurt society than help it, and 76% said they would oppose construction of a new data center in their community. Voters were split almost evenly on which party would handle AI better, NBC said.

Neither party is popular. NBC reported that 54% of voters view the Democratic Party unfavorably and 46% favorably. For the Republican Party, the split was 59% unfavorable and 41% favorable. Almost 1 in 5 voters view neither party favorably. Voters were more likely to say Democrats would better handle the economy, foreign policy, health care and policies about transgender people, while Republicans held an advantage on immigration. On taxes and AI policy, voters were split.

What motivated votes

Forty-three percent of voters said one reason for their vote was to express opposition to Trump, 16% said one reason was to express support, and 41% said he was not a factor, according to the BBC. NBC said the share citing opposition was far higher than in 2018.

AP reported that roughly 7 in 10 voters say Congress is doing "not enough" to provide checks and balances on the presidency, about 2 in 10 say it is doing about the right amount and about 1 in 10 say too much. About three-quarters disapprove of how Congress is handling its job.

How these results compare with pre-election polls

The early Voter Poll numbers are broadly consistent with the last round of public polling before Election Day. Our roundup of final national polls found Democrats ahead on the generic congressional ballot and Trump's approval underwater, and an earlier comparison of Marist and Ipsos generic-ballot polls found similar patterns in October.

That consistency is not proof of any outcome. Issue priorities and mood measures are not vote counts. The relationship between national sentiment and individual House and Senate races is loose, because many contested seats are in states and districts Trump carried by wide margins, and because candidate quality, money and local issues matter. The Cook Political Report's late shifts in House ratings and the early vote of about 58.7 million ballots are separate pieces of evidence, and none of them replaces the count.

Limits to keep in mind

• Preliminary weighting. SSRS weights the pre-election sample to voter-file benchmarks, then blends it with Election Day interviews. Once votes are counted, the results are weighted again to match each state's actual result. Shares reported tonight can change by a point or more after that step.
• Registered voters who voted. The population is people who cast ballots in 2026, not all adults or all registered voters. Comparisons with polls of adults, such as AP-NORC surveys, should keep that difference in mind.
• Shared source. AP, CNN, NBC, Fox, ABC, CBS and MSNOW reports all draw on the same survey, so agreement among them reflects one data source.
• Approximate wording. Several outlets published rounded descriptions ("about 6 in 10") rather than exact figures, and full question wording for every item had not been posted by the time of this report. This story uses exact percentages only where an outlet published them.
• National, not local. National figures do not show how voters in a particular competitive district feel.

What comes next

The Voter Poll will be updated as more interviews are processed and once vote counts allow final weighting. In the 17 states with the largest samples, SSRS also calibrates its weights to modeled regional estimates of the Senate or governor vote, according to the methods statement; those state samples carry estimated margins of error of 1.9 to 2.4 points. 567 Politics will report race outcomes only when they are official or have been called by the Associated Press or another major decision desk, with the source and time of each call.

Differing perspectives

Are the Trump administration's economic policies responsible for the higher prices that most voters say are causing them hardship?

Each position is summarized as its supporters make it, with equal weight and in alphabetical order. A summary is not an endorsement; the evidence for each is weighed in the story above.

• Administration policies are lowering costs and lifting growth

  Who holds it: The White House and Republican leaders

  The White House argues that the president's tax cuts, deregulation, energy policy and trade measures are lifting incomes and investment after years of inflation under the previous administration. It points to third-quarter growth of 3.4%, strong business investment, lower prescription drug prices and falling prices for eggs, meat, dairy, used cars and car insurance. It says real wages are now rising faster than inflation and that Democratic proposals on taxes, health care and energy would raise household costs sharply.

  In their words: The White House ↗

• Administration policies are raising costs

  Who holds it: The Democratic National Committee and Democratic congressional leaders

  Democrats argue that the administration's tariffs and the war with Iran have pushed up prices for gasoline, groceries, housing and health care. The DNC points to September price data showing the largest monthly increase in six months, gas above $4 a gallon for 173 days this year and falling inflation-adjusted weekly wages. It says families are being forced to choose between filling the tank, buying food and paying for medicine, and that the president has not delivered on his promise to end inflation.

  In their words: Democratic National Committee ↗