Younger Republicans are turning on Israel. Older Republicans have not.

Republican voters still back Israel more than Democrats do. That has not changed. What has changed is the size of the age gap inside the party, and how far younger Republicans have moved since the early years of the Trump era.

Pew Research Center surveyed 3,507 U.S. adults from March 23 to 29, 2026, about a month into the U.S.- and Israeli-led war in Iran. Among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, 58% held a favorable view of Israel and 41% an unfavorable view. Among Republicans ages 18 to 49, 57% held an unfavorable view, up from 50% a year earlier. Large majorities of Republicans 50 and older still viewed Israel positively.

A May 4–17 Pew survey made the age split even clearer. Only 28% of Republicans under 35 had a favorable view of the Israeli government, compared with 68% of Republicans 50 and older. Favorable views of the Israeli people ran 43% among Republicans under 35 and 79% among those 50 and older. In 2019, Pew found that 71% of Republicans under 35 viewed the Israeli people favorably, against 82% of Republicans 50 and older. The younger cohort has moved far more than the older one.

This story focuses on that intra-Republican trend. It builds on our earlier reports on what the midterm data say about U.S. support for Israel and on the "Israel first" argument on the right after the November 3 losses. It does not treat criticism of Israeli government policy, U.S. aid or U.S. pro-Israel lobbying groups as evidence about Jewish Americans as a group. U.S. political committees that support a close U.S.–Israel relationship are American organizations; they are not the government of Israel.

What Gallup shows about Republican sympathy over time#

Gallup's annual World Affairs survey asks Americans which side they sympathize with more in the Middle East situation. In its February 2026 update, 41% of adults said they sympathized more with the Palestinians and 36% with the Israelis. The five-point gap is not statistically significant, but it is the first time since Gallup began the series in 2001 that the Israelis no longer hold a clear lead.

Among Republicans, sympathy still runs strongly toward Israelis. Seventy percent said they sympathized more with the Israelis and 13% with the Palestinians. That remains a large gap. It is also the lowest Republican sympathy for Israelis since 2004, down 10 points from 80% in 2024 and 5 points from 75% in 2025.

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

201887%

201976%

202086%

202180%

202277%

202378%

202480%

202575%

202670%

20182020202220242026

Source: Gallup

Show the numbers

Year	Sympathize more with Israelis
2018	87%
2019	76%
2020	86%
2021	80%
2022	77%
2023	78%
2024	80%
2025	75%
2026	70%

Gallup's country favorability series tells a similar story. In 2026, 69% of Republicans viewed Israel favorably, down 15 points from 2025 and the lowest Gallup has recorded for Republicans in more than two decades. Eighteen percent of Republicans viewed the Palestinian Territories favorably, recovering from a record low of 5% in 2024.

Nationally, Americans still rate Israel more favorably than the Palestinian Territories, 46% to 37%. Favorability toward Israel is near Gallup's historical low. Favorability toward the Palestinian Territories is at a new high in the series. Those country ratings are not the same question as sympathy "in the Middle East situation," and readers should not treat them as interchangeable.

Younger Republicans are driving the Republican shift#

Pew's March and May 2026 surveys show that the Republican decline is concentrated among younger adults. Older Republicans remain the party's most pro-Israel bloc. Younger Republicans are not a mirror image of Democrats, but on several Israel measures they now sit closer to the national average than to Republicans over 50.

18-34

28%

35-49

41%

50 and older

68%

Source: Pew Research Center

Show the numbers

Age group	Favorable
18-34	28%
35-49	41%
50 and older	68%

The same May survey found that 65% of Republicans overall still viewed the Israeli people favorably. That overall figure conceals the age split: 43% among Republicans under 35, 57% among those 35 to 49, and 79% among those 50 and older. Views of a country's people and views of its government often diverge. Here both decline with age among Republicans, but the government rating falls further.

Pew also found that Republicans under 50 are about twice as likely as those 50 and older to lack confidence in Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on world affairs. In the March survey, 58% of Republicans 50 and older had confidence in Netanyahu, compared with 30% of Republicans under 50. Overall, Republicans were almost evenly split: 45% had confidence and 44% had little or none.

Our earlier reporting on younger Americans and Israel covers the age gap across parties. The Republican-specific pattern matters for party strategy because the Republican Party has long treated strong support for Israel as a coalition glue among older voters, White evangelical Protestants and foreign-policy hawks. Pew's March survey still found mostly positive views of Israel among Jewish Americans (64%) and White evangelical Protestants (65%). Those groups are not the same as "Republicans under 50."

Election-day and pre-election measures among Republican voters#

The midterm Fox News Voter Poll, fielded by SSRS from October 19 through November 3 among tens of thousands of voters, asked whether U.S. support for Israel was "too strong," "about right" or "not strong enough." As our midterm analysis detailed, 51% of all voters said too strong. 567politics estimated that about 22% of Republican House voters said too strong, about 61% said about right and about 16% said not strong enough. Those party splits are derived estimates with roughly 1 to 2 points of rounding error; they are not a crosstab published by Fox itself.

A Quinnipiac University poll of 970 registered voters taken September 3 to 6 found that 48% of voters said the United States is "too supportive" of Israel, 34% said about right and 8% said not supportive enough. The margin of error was plus or minus 3.9 points. By party, 67% of Democrats, 57% of independents and 17% of Republicans said too supportive. The same poll found that 38% of voters said their sympathies lie more with the Palestinians and 35% with the Israelis, which Quinnipiac called a record high for the Palestinians in its series since December 2001.

The questions differ in wording and population. Together they show a consistent pattern: most Republicans still back the current relationship, a minority wants less support, and younger Republicans are much more skeptical than older ones.

What the numbers do not prove#

Three claims go beyond the evidence. First, a drop in Republican sympathy for Israelis does not mean most Republicans now oppose military aid, reject Israel as an ally or favor cutting diplomatic ties. Gallup and Pew measure favorability and sympathy, not a policy ballot. Second, the age gap does not prove that Republican elected officials will change votes. Older Republicans still dominate many primary electorates. Third, selected posts by commentators or members of Congress cannot stand in for the polls. Social media shows that an argument exists; representative surveys measure how large it is.

Vice President JD Vance said after the midterms that former Trump voters wanted, among other things, a changed relationship with Israel. He did not publish the pollster data. Trump later told 60 Minutes that there is "a great dislike, incredibly, for Israel," according to the CBS transcript. The surveys support a narrower reading: many Democrats and a growing share of younger Republicans say U.S. support is too strong or view Israel unfavorably, while most Republican voters still call the relationship about right or lean toward Israel.$

The Iran war overlaps with these measures. Pew fielded its March survey during the war. A voter angry about gasoline prices or casualties may also rate Israel more negatively. The surveys cannot fully separate those motives. Our report on the Iran war and the midterm vote covers the war's measured role separately.

How this differs from Democratic opinion#

Democratic views of Israel have moved further and earlier. Pew's March 2026 survey found that 80% of Democrats and Democratic leaners held an unfavorable view of Israel, up from 69% in 2025 and 53% in 2022. Gallup's 2026 sympathy question found that 65% of Democrats sympathized more with the Palestinians and 17% with the Israelis. Independents flipped: 41% sympathized more with the Palestinians and 30% with the Israelis, the first time independents preferred the Palestinian side in Gallup's series.

That partisan map matters for interpreting Republican change. A 10-point drop in Republican sympathy for Israelis since 2024 is large inside the GOP. It is still a different phenomenon from the Democratic realignment. Analysts who treat "America" as a single electorate can miss both facts at once: the country has moved, and the Republican coalition has moved less, except among its younger members.

Religious groups cut across party. Pew found mostly favorable views of Israel among Jewish Americans and White evangelical Protestants, and much less favorable views among the religiously unaffiliated, Catholics, Black Protestants and Muslim Americans. White evangelical support helps explain why Republican elected officials remain more pro-Israel than younger Republican survey respondents. Evangelical intensity in primaries can outweigh the online audience that drives America First media.

Why the age gap matters for 2027 and 2028#

If younger Republicans keep their current views as they age, the party's median position on Israel would likely move. If they become more favorable as they grow older, the current gap would shrink. Pew's comparison with 2019 suggests a real cohort shift, not only a short-lived war effect, but one May survey cannot settle that question forever.

Party leaders face a practical problem either way. Messaging that satisfies Republicans over 50 can alienate Republicans under 35. Messaging that courts younger skeptics can anger the party's most reliable Israel supporters, including many White evangelical voters. The U.S. party spectrum shows where 567politics places the major parties and factions as dated editorial estimates, not measured scores.

The evidence supports a limited conclusion. Republican support for Israel remains high by national standards and has declined from its recent peaks. The decline is largest among younger Republicans. That fact helps explain why America First critics of aid and of U.S. pro-Israel political spending now find a larger audience inside the party, and why defenders of the traditional alliance still hold most Republican elected offices. For how 567politics handles polls, see our methodology.

Differing perspectives

How should Republicans respond to younger voters' rising skepticism of Israel?

Each position is summarized as its supporters make it, with equal weight and in alphabetical order. A summary is not an endorsement; the evidence for each is weighed in the story above.

• Change the relationship with Israel

  Who holds it: Vice President JD Vance and America First Republicans who cite midterm losses

  This group argues that the Iran war and a close U.S. tie to Israel cost Republicans votes in 2026. Vance says former Trump voters listed ending the war and changing the relationship with Israel among steps that would bring them back. In this view, the party should put domestic costs first and revise a policy younger Republicans increasingly reject.

  In their words: The Times of Israel, quoting Vance ↗

• Keep the traditional alliance

  Who holds it: Pro-Israel Republicans, AIPAC members and many Republicans 50 and older

  Supporters argue that Israel remains a democratic ally that shares intelligence and helps counter Iran, Hamas and Hezbollah. They point to Gallup and Pew findings that most Republicans still view Israel favorably or sympathize more with Israelis, and say changing course would abandon a successful security partnership for a minority preference among younger voters.

  In their words: AIPAC explanation of political giving ↗

• Treat the age gap as real but limited

  Who holds it: Conservative analysts who say Israel moved few Republican votes

  This view accepts Pew and Gallup evidence that younger Republicans are more skeptical, but argues most Republican voters still call U.S. support about right. Writers such as HotAir's David Strom say voters who want a weaker tie are mostly Democrats Republicans cannot win, and that shifting Israel policy would cost more base support than it would gain.

  In their words: HotAir ↗

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