Sullivan leads Peltola by 2,071 votes as Alaska's count heads to a November 18 ranked-choice tabulation

Alaska woke up on Wednesday with the last big Senate race of the 2026 midterms still open. In the unofficial first-choice count posted by the Division of Elections late on Election Night, Republican Sen. Dan S. Sullivan led Democrat Mary Peltola by 2,071 votes, 99,559 to 97,488, with 313 of 401 precincts reporting, according to the division's summary as reproduced by Alaska Watchman at 10:48 p.m. Alaska time. That is 48.45 percent to 47.45 percent. Neither candidate is near the 50 percent needed to avoid a ranked-choice tabulation, and tens of thousands of early and absentee ballots have not been counted. Alaska will not run its ranked-choice rounds until November 18.

The seat does not decide control of the chamber. Democrats were projected to win the Senate on Election Night after flipping six seats. It does decide the size of their majority, and it is the race the Justice Department sued over before a single vote was counted. This story lays out what the count shows, how the next three weeks work, what each campaign said on Tuesday night, and what remains unknown.

What the first-choice count shows

Alaska reports first choices only until the ranked-choice tabulation. The numbers below come from the Division of Elections' unofficial report at 10:48 p.m. on November 3, as published by Alaska Watchman. They cover 206,783 ballots, or 34.15 percent of registered voters, and exclude most early and absentee votes.

The lead changed hands during the night. The first batch of 65,588 ballots, posted at 8:33 p.m., had Peltola at 54.13 percent and the senator at 42.81 percent, per the Juneau Independent. By 9:24 p.m., with 211 of 403 precincts in, Peltola's margin was 298 votes, 48.3 percent to 48.1 percent, per Newsweek. Later precincts pushed the senator ahead. Alaska Public Media's overnight update had Sullivan at 48.6 percent and Peltola at 47.4 percent with about 70 percent of precincts reporting, per Alaska Public Media.

• Sullivan
• Peltola

0%

20%

40%

60%

8:33 p.m. (65,588 ballots)Sullivan: 42.81%Peltola: 54.13%

9:24 p.m. (211 of 403 precincts)Sullivan: 48.1%Peltola: 48.3%

10:48 p.m. (313 of 401 precincts)Sullivan: 48.45%Peltola: 47.45%

8:33 p.m. (65,588 ballots)9:24 p.m. (211 of 403 precincts)10:48 p.m. (313 of 401 precincts)

Source: Juneau Independent, Newsweek, Alaska Watchman

Show the numbers

Time	Sullivan	Peltola
8:33 p.m. (65,588 ballots)	42.81%	54.13%
9:24 p.m. (211 of 403 precincts)	48.1%	48.3%
10:48 p.m. (313 of 401 precincts)	48.45%	47.45%

Two cautions apply. First, the precinct totals in the two reports differ slightly, 403 against 401; we could not determine why from the reports we could open, and the official page will settle it. Second, these are counts of first choices on in-person ballots. The outstanding ballots are not a random sample of the electorate. In 2020, the division held back more than 100,000 absentee and late early votes until a week after the election, per the Forbes account reprinted by MyJoyOnline. Consultant Burke Croft told Newsweek that shifts of about four points have happened in past Alaska counts, per Newsweek.

How many ballots are still out

The division had recorded 58,168 early or absentee ballots by the afternoon of October 27, one week before the election, with 34,738 cast in person at its ten early-voting stations between October 19 and October 26, per Alaska Public Media. Early votes cast through the Thursday before the election are folded into Election Day totals. Early votes from Friday onward, and all mailed ballots, wait until officials check them against the Election Day register to rule out double voting. The final early-vote total was not in any report we could open, so the number of uncounted ballots is unknown. It is in the tens of thousands at least, since early voting ran for another week after the October 27 snapshot.

Among in-person early voters through October 26, 26.7 percent were registered Republicans and 18.4 percent were Democrats, against 23.5 percent and 11.6 percent of all 604,771 registered voters, per the same Alaska Public Media report. Party registration is not a vote, and most Alaskans are registered with no party. Those figures do not tell us who is ahead in the uncounted pile.

The calendar from here

Alaska's count is slow by design. The schedule below comes from the Division of Elections as reported by Alaska Public Media and Newsweek.

Until November 18, every public total shows first choices only. If no candidate passes 50 percent, the last-place candidate is eliminated and those ballots move to their next ranked choice, round by round. With four names on the ballot, that means Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. and Gerald Heikes would be dropped and their voters' second choices would decide the race. In the Data for Progress poll of October 8 to 16, that process narrowed a 47-44 Peltola lead to 51-49, as we reported in our final-poll roundup. A ballot that ranked only an eliminated candidate is exhausted and counts for no one.

The state will release its ballot data file during the count, which lets the Associated Press run its own tabulation and possibly call the race before November 18, per KTOO. As of Wednesday morning, no major outlet had called it.

What the candidates said

Both candidates spoke to supporters in Anchorage late Tuesday. Sullivan, at the Hotel Captain Cook, acknowledged the national picture and argued Alaska would break from it. "Lower 48 blue wave. But we're different," he said, per the Associated Press report carried by The Daily Reflector. "I'm confident when all the votes are counted, I will have the honor of representing you," he said, per KTOO. He again called the second Sullivan's candidacy "the biggest election cheating scandal in the history of the state of Alaska," per the AP.

Peltola, at the Sheraton Anchorage, told her crowd, "We are getting our government back," per the AP, and "We are winning our state back," per KTOO. She also warned that "the results are not going to be fast" and that "it's going to take a long time to make sure we're counting every vote from every far-flung hinterland community." On the recruitment allegations, she repeated that she was "kept out of it" and "would never allow this," per KTOO.

President Trump, who held a Wasilla rally for Sullivan last month, told The New York Times on Tuesday that he was "absolutely willing to accept" the midterm results, per the Juneau Independent. His broader reaction to the night is covered in our story on his claim that Republicans would have won "in a landslide" with him on the ballot.

The legal fight that has not gone away

The count is happening under a dismissed lawsuit, a pending appeal and a criminal inquiry. The Justice Department sued Alaska on October 22, asking a court to bar certification if Sullivan lost by less than the votes cast for Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., a retired Petersburg teacher with no relation to the senator. U.S. District Judge Sharon Gleason dismissed the case on November 1, finding the government lacked standing and that ballots "have been commingled and cannot now be segregated." The department filed its notice of appeal within an hour. On Election Day, The New York Times reported that prosecutors had sent target letters to about 20 Democrats, including election lawyer Marc Elias. A target letter is not a charge.

Whether the appeal matters depends on the arithmetic. Sullivan Jr. drew 3,401 first-choice votes in the 10:48 p.m. report. If the final margin between the senator and Peltola is wider than Sullivan Jr.'s total in either direction, the department's own theory of harm falls away. If Peltola wins by less than that total, the Ninth Circuit could be asked to act before the November 25 certification target. The department has not said publicly whether it will seek emergency relief. The Alaska Department of Law, which fought the suit, has said the division, not the governor, certifies under state law.

None of the allegations about how Sullivan Jr. came to run has been tested in court. He says he ran on his own. Peltola says she knew nothing. The senator's campaign says it does not believe her. We laid out what is proven, alleged and unknown in our Election Day report, and nothing on Tuesday night changed that record.

Alaskans narrowly keep ranked-choice voting, for now

The same ballots carried Measure 2, which would have repealed ranked-choice voting and the open top-four primary that Alaska adopted in 2020 and restored party primaries and plurality general elections. In the 10:48 p.m. report, No led Yes 100,923 to 95,339, or 51.42 percent to 48.58 percent, per Alaska Watchman. A near-identical repeal failed in 2024 by 0.24 percentage points, per Wikipedia's summary of the measure. This year's measure was backed by President Trump, Gov. Mike Dunleavy and the Alaska Republican Party and opposed by the League of Women Voters of Alaska and a cross-party group of former legislators. Pre-election polls split: Alaska Survey Research had No ahead 53-47 in early October, while Data for Progress had a 48-48 tie, per the same summary.

The result is not final. The same uncounted ballots that will decide the Senate race will decide the measure. Measure 3, which would write citizen-only voting into state law, was passing 69.93 percent to 30.07 percent in the same report.

The rest of the Alaska ballot

Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins led the open governor's race with 48.85 percent against 29.39 percent for Republican Bernadette Wilson, 14.10 percent for Dave Bronson and 7.37 percent for Treg Taylor, per Alaska Watchman. Like the Senate race, it would go to ranked-choice rounds if he stays under 50 percent, and the three Republicans' second choices would matter. In the at-large House race, Republican Rep. Nick Begich led independent Bill Hill 49.93 percent to 40.05 percent, with Democrat Eric Hafner at 7.19 percent. Begich is close to the majority that would end the race in the first round.

What people are saying online

This desk sets out each run to sample what people on X and Reddit are saying, and to verify every post we quote against its live permalink. On the morning of November 4, our tools could not open X or Reddit, and the tool we use to check a post against its original link failed on each X link we tried. Search previews pointed to posts from Alaska reporters relaying the count, from Republican accounts calling the second Sullivan a fraud, and from Democratic accounts calling the Justice Department suit an attempt to pre-empt the result. A preview is not a verified quotation. We have therefore quoted no social posts in this story, and we make no claim about what Alaskans online think. The only representative evidence is the pre-election polling in our final-poll roundup, where every lead was inside the margin of error.

Money and stakes

Campaign spending does not change a count, but it shows the stakes each side saw. Through the third-quarter FEC reports, Peltola had raised $36.9 million and spent $32.8 million; Sen. Sullivan$ had raised $14.1 million and spent $12 million, per Ballotpedia. Those are campaign receipts only. They exclude independent expenditures, which ran into the millions on both sides, as our Election Day report detailed from an FEC snapshot retrieved November 3. Funding shows interest, not control, and none of it bears on who is ahead.

What remains unknown

The number of uncounted ballots is unknown until the division posts its early and absentee totals. Whether either candidate reaches 50 percent of first choices is unknown; the Election Night figures say no, but the mail ballots could move the shares. Where Sullivan Jr.'s and Heikes's voters ranked second is unknown until November 18, unless the AP's tabulation of the released ballot file gets there first. Whether the Justice Department will press its appeal if the margin is close, and whether Gov. Dunleavy would sign credentials for a Peltola win, are open. And whether Measure 2's narrow No lead holds will not be clear for at least a week.

Sources and method

Vote figures are unofficial Division of Elections totals as published on Election Night by Alaska Watchman, the Juneau Independent, Newsweek and Alaska Public Media; we could not open the division's own results page, the Anchorage Daily News, the Alaska Beacon or NBC News during reporting, so we relied on outlets that reproduced the division's figures and noted the timestamps on each. Quotes are as printed by the Associated Press, KTOO and the Juneau Independent. Early-vote figures come from the division as reported by Alaska Public Media on October 28. Campaign-finance figures are third-quarter FEC totals as summarized by Ballotpedia. No social posts are quoted because X and Reddit could not be reached or verified. See our methodology for how we handle counts, allegations and online reactions.

Differing perspectives

Should Alaska repeal ranked-choice voting and its open top-four primary, as Ballot Measure 2 proposes?

Each position is summarized as its supporters make it, with equal weight and in alphabetical order. A summary is not an endorsement; the evidence for each is weighed in the story above.

• Keep open primaries and ranked-choice voting

  Who holds it: Protect Alaska's Elections (the No on 2 committee), Alaskans for Better Elections, former Senate President Cathy Giessel, AFL-CIO leader Joelle Hall and the Sealaska board

  Opponents argue that Alaskans have twice approved a system that lets every voter choose any candidate at every election, and that a third vote in six years asks them to relitigate a settled question. They say open primaries force candidates to appeal to a broad majority rather than a party's base, and elect officials who work across the aisle. They point to the measure's other provisions, which would repeal the 2020 rules requiring disclosure of the true source of large political donations, and say repeal would roll back transparency. Alaska Native groups add that rural and Native communities have backed the reforms because they widen participation.

  In their words: Sol de Medianoche News (Protect Alaska's Elections coalition statement) ↗

• Repeal ranked-choice voting and the open primary

  Who holds it: Repeal Now AK (the Yes on 2 campaign), the Alaska Republican Party, Gov. Mike Dunleavy and President Donald Trump

  Supporters argue that ranked-choice voting is too complicated and that a ballot not filled out "correctly" can be thrown out, so some voters lose their say in later rounds. They point to 2024, when they say thousands of Alaska ballots were exhausted and changed an outcome. They say the system "confuses voters, delays results, and undermines true majority rule," that 19 states have banned it, and that Alaska should return to "simple, fair elections" in which each voter casts one vote for one candidate and the person with the most votes wins. They also want party primaries restored so that each party's own voters choose its nominee.

  In their words: Repeal Now AK (Yes on 2 campaign site) ↗