Alaska goes into Election Day with its U.S. Senate race inside the margin of error and its governor's race leaning toward the only Democrat on the ballot, according to the final New York Times/Siena College poll released Sunday, Nov. 1, 2026. Former Rep. Mary Peltola, a Democrat, had 48% to 46% for Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan [Funding: campaign funding data not verified]. In the ranked-choice race for governor, Siena's simulated final round showed former state Rep. Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, a Democrat from Sitka, at 54% and Republican businesswoman Bernadette Wilson at 46%.
Polls close Tuesday, Nov. 3, but Alaska will not have a final answer that night in any close race. The state Division of Elections says ranked-choice tabulations will not be released until Nov. 18, after all eligible ballots are reviewed and counted. The Senate seat is one of the handful Democrats need to flip for a majority; our Senate control tracker explains how each race fits that math.
This story covers the polling, the voting system and the candidates' closing arguments. The Justice Department lawsuit and criminal inquiry tied to the second Dan Sullivan [Funding: campaign funding data not verified] on the ballot are covered separately. See our report on the appeal after Judge Sharon Gleason dismissed the suit.
What the final Siena poll found
The Siena Research Institute's release lists the Alaska Senate result as Peltola 48%, Sullivan 46%. The release does not mark the Senate figure as a ranked-choice result, so readers should treat it as a first-choice measure. The governor's result carries an asterisk for "Ranked Choice Voting," meaning Siena reported the two-candidate final round rather than first choices among all four candidates.
Siena put the Alaska margin of sampling error at plus or minus 5.0 percentage points, including a design effect of 1.47. The design effect reflects how much weighting widens the error compared with a simple random sample. The polling tracker 270toWin lists the Alaska sample as 610 likely voters. The Times sponsored the poll and Siena conducted it.
Two items we could not verify. The Siena release we read does not give Alaska field dates or the exact question wording, and the Times crosstabs were not readable to us before publication. We report the toplines as published and do not report subgroup results.
The 2-point Senate gap is well inside a 5-point error margin. The margin of error applies to each candidate's share, so the error on the gap between them is larger still. Statistically, the poll shows a race that could go either way.
Siena's executive director, Don Levy, said Democrats held leads of 5 to 11 points in five of the seven states polled. "In Alaska Peltola (D) leads Sullivan (R) by 2 points and Iowa is virtually tied," he said. "With so many races within the poll's total margin of error, a Senate majority for either party remains possible."
How other late polls compare
The final Siena number is close to other late surveys, according to 270toWin's Alaska Senate list. These polls asked for first choices among all four Senate candidates. That list includes Republican Jerry Heikes and Dan J. Sullivan, a retired Petersburg teacher listed on the ballot without a party label.
- Alaska Survey Research (released Oct. 30): 1,326 likely voters, margin of error plus or minus 3 points. Peltola 48%, Sen. Sullivan 46%, Dan J. Sullivan 3%, Heikes 3%.
- Data for Progress (Oct. 20): 694 likely voters. Peltola 47%, Sen. Sullivan 44%, Dan J. Sullivan 4%, Heikes 1%.
- InsiderAdvantage (Oct. 11): Peltola 48%, Sen. Sullivan 43%, Dan J. Sullivan 2%, Heikes 2%.
270toWin's average of its four most recent polls is Peltola 47.8% and Sullivan 44.8%. We did not open the original releases for these three pollsters, so their field dates, sponsors, methods and wording are not confirmed here. Data for Progress is a progressive firm. That does not make its numbers wrong, but readers should weigh it.
CNBC reported on Nov. 1 that the Cook Political Report rates the race a toss-up. It also reported that Peltola holds a slight edge in the FiftyPlusOne polling average.
The August primary gives one more reference point. The Anchorage Daily News reported that Peltola received 49.5% in the top-four primary, Sen. Sullivan 41.4%, and Dan J. Sullivan less than 2.5%. Primary turnout and general election turnout differ, so that result is a rough guide only. Our method for weighing polls against other evidence is on the methodology page.
type: column
title: Alaska Senate polls of likely voters, Oct. 11 to Nov. 1, 2026
note: Percent of likely voters, first-choice results with Dan J. Sullivan and Heikes on the ballot; their 0% to 5% shares and undecided voters are not shown. The polls used different methods and are not averaged here.
suffix: %
source: [270toWin Alaska Senate polls](https://www.270towin.com/2026-senate-polls/alaska), [Siena Research Institute release](https://sri.siena.edu/2026/11/01/nytimes-siena-poll-of-likely-voters-alaska-iowa-kansas-maine-michigan-ohio-and-texas/)
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Poll | Peltola | Sullivan
InsiderAdvantage (Oct. 11) | 48 | 43
Data for Progress (Oct. 20) | 47 | 44
Alaska Survey Research (Oct. 30) | 48 | 46
NYT/Siena (Nov. 1) | 48 | 46
Why ranked choice matters here
Alaska uses a top-four primary and a ranked-choice general election. Voters may rank every candidate. If no one wins a majority of first choices, the last-place candidate is eliminated and those ballots move to the voter's next choice. That repeats until two candidates remain.
That matters in the Senate race because the two minor candidates poll at a combined 3% to 6%. If neither leader crosses 50% in the first round, Heikes and Dan J. Sullivan are eliminated and their voters' next rankings decide much of the margin. A ballot with no further ranking becomes inactive and drops out of the count.
The Alaska Beacon reported in August that since 2022 "a significant number of voters have continued to rank just one candidate." That habit can help a candidate whose rivals split the vote. It is also why the Division of Elections took steps to separate the two Sullivans on the ballot. The ADN reported that voters see the senator as "Sullivan, Dan S. (Registered Republican) Incumbent" and the challenger as "Sullivan, Daniel J. Jr." with no party listed.
Turnout so far is high. As of 1:20 p.m. on Nov. 1, the Division of Elections listed 113,301 ballots received. That figure includes 58,262 early votes, 24,332 by mail and 6,163 in-person absentee ballots. The Alaska Beacon reported that early voting was running at the pace of the 2024 record.
The governor's race: one Democrat, three Republicans
The race to replace Gov. Mike Dunleavy [Funding: campaign funding data not verified], a term-limited Republican, took its shape after the August primary. Kreiss-Tomkins finished first with 22.5% of the vote, the Beacon reported. Democrat Tom Begich, the second-place finisher, withdrew and endorsed him. That moved Wilson, who had 10.1%, into the second ballot spot. Former Anchorage Mayor Dave Bronson and former Attorney General Treg Taylor, both Republicans, are also on the ballot after Taylor's disqualification was reversed.
The ADN reported on Oct. 28 that Kreiss-Tomkins raised more than $1 million in October and about $5.3 million overall. Wilson had raised about $1.5 million and Bronson about $440,000. The Alaska Republican Party has not endorsed a candidate. Dunleavy has urged Republicans to rank all three Republicans.
Outside money is lopsided too, according to the ADN. Forward Frontier, funded by the Democratic Governors Association, has spent $4.4 million. Kodiak PAC, funded by the Republican Governors Association, has spent $1.7 million. A pro-Wilson group, "Bernadette Will Build the Damn Roads," funded by the private prison company GEO Group, has spent $98,000.
The 54%-46% Siena figure is a final-round simulation. It assumes that most voters for Bronson and Taylor rank Wilson next. If many of them rank only one candidate, Wilson's final-round share would be smaller than her party's combined first-choice share.
The House race
Rep. Nick Begich III [Funding: campaign funding data not verified], a Republican, faces independent Bill Hill, Libertarian Jim McDermott and Democrat Eric Hafner. The Beacon reported on Oct. 30 that Hafner is in federal prison for threatening federal officials and is not expected to be released until 2036. He would be ineligible to serve because the Constitution requires House members to live in the state when elected. Even so, he is polling in the high single digits, near the gap between Begich and Hill.
The Alaska Democratic Party has endorsed Hill and is asking voters not to support Hafner. Third-party groups have spent more than $450,000 against Hafner, the Beacon reported, citing OpenSecrets. Asked whether he or anyone he knows encouraged Hafner to run, Begich told the Beacon: "Absolutely not." The race page is here.
The case for Dan Sullivan [Funding: campaign funding data not verified]
Sullivan, who is seeking a third term, has run on energy and on his alliance with President Donald Trump. At a Trump rally in Wasilla on Oct. 13, the Alaska Beacon reported, he argued that more local production is the answer to high fuel costs. "The best way to address Alaska's energy challenges is to produce more Alaskan energy by and for Alaskans," he said. "The conflict in the Middle East is temporary. The true forever war is the national Democrats' war against Alaska oil and gas and our jobs." [Funding: campaign funding data not verified]
Voters who spoke with the ADN at an Anchorage early-voting site cited his vote for the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. One voter, Jeff Carlson, said he likes the law's tax cuts on tips, on overtime and for seniors, and wants to "keep the Trump thing going." His friend Jeanette Lennon said their income has grown this year because of the overtime tax cut. These were not a representative sample, but they show the arguments Sullivan's supporters make.
In the final week, Sullivan has also argued that his opponent's side tried to game the ballot. A New York Times report published Oct. 28 said Peltola's campaign staff and a national Democratic group helped recruit Dan J. Sullivan. Peltola, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and Dan J. Sullivan deny it. On CNN, Sullivan said the report shows the campaign was "recognizing they couldn't run on their record, so they had to cheat." Asked whether he would accept the results, he said: "No, I'm going to accept the election results."
The case for Sullivan rests on the view that Alaska's economy depends on oil and gas revenue, and that a Republican Senate is better placed to expand drilling on federal land. His supporters also argue that his seniority and ties to the administration give the state leverage.
The case for Mary Peltola
Peltola, who represented Alaska in the House from 2022 to 2025, has made costs her main argument. At a rally in Bethel on Nov. 1, KYUK reported, she spoke to more than 100 supporters about fuel prices, salmon crashes and Medicaid cuts. "This is a neck and neck race," she said.
At an Anchorage forum on Oct. 8, the Beacon reported, she faulted Congress for not checking the president on Iran. "We should be standing up to the president, and there have been many times where the Senate and the House have said no to the administration on wars. Where is our backbone?" she said.
At a Juneau rally on Oct. 29, she told supporters she opposed the war with Iran and tariffs on imports from Canada and other allies, the ADN reported. Voters who backed her at the Anchorage site cited Medicaid. Linda Gutierrez-Miller, a clinical pharmacist, said refugee patients lost Medicaid coverage on Oct. 1 under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. The state estimates that more than 9,000 more Alaskans will lose coverage when work requirements start after the new year.
On the ballot dispute, Peltola has denied any role. "I knew nothing about any other candidates on the ballot, except for me and the incumbent," she said in Juneau. "I am not interested in tricking voters." In Bethel she added: "I don't need any sham candidates on the ballot. That only hurts me."
The case for Peltola rests on the view that federal health cuts and higher prices hurt Alaskans more than any energy gains help them. Her supporters also argue that her record of working across party lines in the House fits a state that often splits its ticket.
Checking the claims
Some closing lines from both campaigns go further than the evidence.
Sullivan's statement that his opponents "had to cheat" uses loaded language. The ADN reported that experts say the alleged recruitment appears to be legal. "I'm not saying it's ethical, but I don't see any law making it illegal," said David Schultz, a political science and law professor at Hamline University. Calling a legal tactic cheating assumes the conclusion the investigations are meant to test.
Peltola's response to the Times also deserves scrutiny. "When did the New York Times become the National Enquirer?" she asked in Juneau. That attacks the outlet rather than the specific facts it reported. It is a form of the genetic fallacy. A report's accuracy depends on its evidence, not on what one thinks of the publisher.
A claim from Peltola's side about the voting system also overreaches. State Sen. Jesse Kiehl, a Democrat, told the ADN that with ranked choice, "if, in fact, there's a dirty trick out there, rank your candidates. It won't work." Ranked choice can blunt a spoiler, but only if voters rank more than one candidate. As noted above, many Alaskans do not. [Funding: campaign funding data not verified]
Schultz also raised a point on causation that applies to either side's post-election claims. If Sullivan narrowly loses, he said, it would be hard to prove the namesake candidate caused it. "He could have lost because he wasn't a strong candidate, or for a whole bunch of other reasons," Schultz said.
Who is funding the Senate campaigns
Federal Election Commission totals pulled Nov. 2 show a large money gap. Peltola's campaign reported $36.9 million in receipts from Jan. 1 through Oct. 14, 2026. That includes $20.3 million in itemized individual contributions and $845,259 from other political committees, such as PACs. She had $4.1 million cash on hand.
Sen. Sullivan's campaign reported $14.1 million in receipts for the full six-year cycle, from Jan. 1, 2021, through Oct. 14, 2026. That includes $6.1 million in itemized individual gifts and $2.95 million from other political committees. He had $2.8 million cash on hand. Dan J. Sullivan reported $30,556 in receipts and $31,799 in debts.
These figures cover only the candidates' own committees. They leave out super PAC and party spending, which the ADN has described as record-setting in this race. Contributions show who supports a candidate. They do not prove that donors control a vote. Our Dan Sullivan profile [Funding: tracked education-related PAC receipts $0.00; energy-related PAC receipts $10,000.00 (2026 cycle; retrieved 2026-10-31; partial topic registry)] [FEC source] [Funding: campaign funding data not verified] lists his committee's PAC contributors from FEC filings.
What to watch Tuesday and after
The first returns Tuesday night will show first-choice votes only. Ballots postmarked by Election Day can still arrive afterward, and the ranked-choice rounds will not be published until Nov. 18. A first-round lead of a point or two could shrink or grow once the minor candidates' votes move.
Three numbers will be worth watching: the combined first-choice share for Heikes and Dan J. Sullivan, the share of ballots that rank only one candidate, and the gap between Wilson's first-choice share and the combined Republican vote in the governor's race. Results for the Senate race will be posted on our Alaska Senate race page as they are reported.