Trump says Israel aid ends this year. Congress holds the money, and two deadlines decide what happens

President Donald Trump says U.S. military aid to Israel ends this year. The money, though, runs through Congress, and in January Congress changes hands. That leaves Israel facing two clocks at once: a stopgap spending law that expires on December 11, and a new Democratic majority that takes over on January 3, 2027.

Six days after the November 3 midterms, the practical picture is narrower than the headlines. No law has changed. No appropriation has been cut. Israel's government now calls the shift a move "from aid to partnership," while Israeli defense and finance officials say they were not told about Trump's timeline. Democrats who will soon run the spending committees are split between ending aid, conditioning it and keeping it. This report sets out what the aid is, what the lame-duck Congress and the next one can actually do, and where each camp stands.

Our earlier reports covered Trump's Election Day announcement and the first Israeli reactions and what the midterm data say about U.S. support for Israel. This story picks up from there, with the Israeli government's response, the budget calendar and the fight that awaits in the new Congress.

The short answer: nothing changes until Congress acts#

The core aid is set by a 10-year memorandum of understanding (MOU) signed in 2016. It covers 2019 through September 30, 2028, and pledges $38 billion, or about $3.8 billion a year. Of that, about $3.3 billion a year is Foreign Military Financing (FMF), which Israel uses to buy U.S. weapons, and about $500 million goes to joint missile defense: Iron Dome, David's Sling and Arrow. The figures are laid out in an Israel Defense analysis by Ami Rojkes Dombe and in the Congressional Research Service figures cited in our earlier report.

An MOU is a political commitment, not a treaty. A 2020 law authorizes the aid, but the money must be appropriated each year. The two parts also travel on separate tracks. The $3.3 billion sits in the State and Foreign Operations spending bill. The $500 million sits in the Pentagon budget.

That structure is why analysts on both sides doubt a clean cutoff on December 31. Pnina Shuker, a researcher at Hebrew University's Shasha Center, told the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS) that "the President is not permitted to withhold" money Congress has appropriated. She expects "a phased transition" in practice. She also noted that Israel has signed multi-year deals for fighter jets and munitions that rely on aid funds, which gives U.S. defense firms a stake in keeping the money flowing.

What Trump said, and how Israel answered#

Trump made the announcement in a Fox News phone interview on Election Day. "Bibi Netanyahu and I have made a deal that we give Israel $4 billion a year, and we made a deal months ago that we're stopping," he said, as quoted by JISS. "We've already agreed that by the end of this year we won't be paying Israel. Now, we'll help Israel if they need it."

Ynet reported that Trump tied the move to the Michigan Senate race. "Why should we put up with El-Sayed's nonsense when they don't need it?" he said, referring to Democrat Abdul El-Sayed, who won the seat on a platform of ending military aid to Israel.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office answered on Friday, November 6. "The transition by Prime Minister Netanyahu and President Trump from assistance to partnership demonstrates the strength and sophistication of our relationship," it said, according to Ynet. "Today, Israel has a strong and stable economy."

Unnamed Israeli diplomatic officials told Ynet that "no final decision has been made" and that the gap between Trump's 2026 date and the MOU's 2028 end "would be settled between Netanyahu and Trump." They said the goal is a new agreement before the current Congress ends on January 3, 2027. It would set the amount of aid and its gradual reduction, and steer funding to joint projects and research.

The idea itself predates the election. In January, Netanyahu told The Economist he wanted to taper aid to zero within 10 years. In June, Israel's Defense Ministry and the Trump administration formally opened talks on the next framework. The ministry said the talks would "gradually transition from aid to a completely reciprocal partnership," The Times of Israel reported in October.

What surprised Israeli officials was the date. JISS noted that Kan 11 and Army Radio reported that professional staff in the military, the Defense Ministry and the Finance Ministry were caught off guard by the end-2026 timeline. That came weeks after an Israeli delegation met the U.S. Army Security Assistance Command in Alabama on October 20 to plan future purchases. President Isaac Herzog called the announcement "a bolt from the blue," the BBC reported.

How big is the hole for Israel?#

The answer depends on whom you ask, and the numbers differ by method.

Yaakov Amidror, a former national security adviser to Netanyahu, told JISS the loss is roughly half a percent of Israel's gross domestic product and about 1.5 percent of the state budget. He said the real cost is planning certainty. U.S. aid had served as an anchor for the air force's long-term purchases. Without it, the military must persuade the government to commit funds for 10 years at a time, which he called "very difficult to obtain." Amidror said he opposed giving up the aid and still does. But he also said the change could bring savings, "because for every dollar it will be necessary to make an effort."

The BBC put U.S. military aid at less than 10 percent of Israel's annual military budget. An unnamed defense official was blunter on Channel 12, as quoted by The Guardian: "Where are we going to come up with 15 billion shekels every year," the official asked, adding a question about what that means for Israel's future defense budget.

Israel already pays for some U.S. purchases itself. Aviram Hasson, head of the Defense Ministry's mission to the United States and Canada, told The Times of Israel that Israel had spent about $3.3 billion to $3.4 billion of its own money in the United States on wartime needs since October 7, 2023.

Eran Lerman, vice president of JISS, raised a further question. It is unclear, he said, what happens to purchase deals already signed against this fiscal year's aid, and what the change means for the U.S. legal duty to preserve Israel's "qualitative military edge" in the region.

The December 11 deadline and the lame-duck session#

The outgoing Congress returns this week. The government is funded by a continuing resolution, or CR, that expires on December 11, according to Israel Defense. Without a new law, a shutdown would begin December 12.

Under a CR, programs run at the prior year's level. New programs and production increases are barred. For Israel, Israel Defense concluded, "the immediate threat is not cuts, but delays and rigidity." Aid keeps flowing at last year's level while increases wait.

The same analysis cites the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) for the most likely path: another CR that hands the full-year decisions to the new Democratic Congress. The lame-duck window is short, about five to six weeks with a Thanksgiving break.

The defense policy bill shows what is already on the table. The House passed its version of the fiscal 2027 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) on July 22 by 216 to 212. It stalled in the Senate after a procedural vote failed. The House text authorizes $500 million for joint missile defense with Israel. These are spending ceilings, not money in hand.

Research and development

$300M

Arrow 3

$150M

David's Sling

$30M

Iron Dome

$20M

Source: Israel Defense, Nov. 5, 2026

Show the numbers

Program	Authorized
Research and development	$300M
Arrow 3	$150M
David's Sling	$30M
Iron Dome	$20M

Both versions also include a U.S.-Israel Defense Technological Cooperation Initiative, Section 219 in the House and Section 1217 in the Senate. It would require the defense secretary to name an official to coordinate technology work with Israel. Israel Defense noted that critics see it as an effort to lock in the ties.

What a Democratic Congress can and cannot do#

Democrats will control both chambers in January. Israel Defense expects Adam Smith$ to return as House Armed Services chairman and Jack Reed$ to lead the Senate Armed Services Committee. Representative Gregory Meeks$ has launched a bid to chair House Foreign Affairs again, Politico reported, as listed in the Foundation for Middle East Peace's November 6 legislative round-up.

Their power has limits. Trump has promised to be "Mr. Veto," and Democrats are unlikely to reach the two-thirds majorities needed to override him, Reuters reported. A spending bill still needs his signature.

What a majority can do is shape bills, hold hearings and slow things down. "They can make ... a lot of noise. They can threaten to hold up nominees. They can create lots of questions about various assistance deals," William Wechsler of the Atlantic Council told Reuters. Shuker made a related point to JISS: ending grant aid "will not free Israel from this oversight, since procurement financed by Israel is also subject to congressional review."

That matters because the debate is moving from aid to arms sales. Former U.S. ambassador Dan Shapiro, who helped negotiate the 2016 MOU, told The Times of Israel the hard part of the next framework is "managing arms export approvals, congressional review, and administration policy." The same report noted that U.S. officials said in October that the administration was preparing a $2.8 billion munitions sale to Israel, including tens of thousands of 2,000-pound bombs.

Where each camp stands#

The positions do not split neatly by party.

End aid and stop arms sales. Representative Ro Khanna, a California Democrat, posted on November 4 that Democrats must deliver "Zero aid to Israel, stop military sales," according to the FMEP round-up. A day earlier he wrote that "Progressives won the debate." Representative Delia Ramirez of Illinois is pressing her Block the Bombs Act, which would bar transfers of certain offensive munitions.$$

Condition aid on U.S. and international law. Senator Chris Van Hollen of Maryland has led efforts to attach human rights conditions. "We need to make sure that we apply our laws and international law and our policies uniformly across the board when it comes to the actions of countries. There should not be an Israel exception," he told Reuters.

Keep the MOU. Representative Brad Sherman, a California Democrat, defended the 2016 agreement in a November 5 post compiled by FMEP. He said the aid "is spent right here at home and supports thousands of American jobs," and that "Donald Trump's isolationism will only make America weaker on the world stage."$

Trade, not aid. Some Republicans welcome Trump's move. Representative Abe Hamadeh of Arizona wrote that "the future of our relationship with Israel has to be Trade, not Aid," so that "Israel buys American weapons and defense technology with its own money."

Skeptical the cut is real. Representative Thomas Massie, the Kentucky Republican who sponsored July's amendment to strip the $3.3 billion, wrote that the same funds "will just flow through as military assistance/coordination instead of as a separate line item." He called the announcement "a desperate Election Day lie." Massie offered no evidence beyond his reading of how the budget works, and the administration has not published details that would settle the point.$

Republican Representative Don Bacon$ focused on process. He told CNN his issue was that the Israelis were not notified in advance, according to Israel Defense.

The House record shows how far the ground has moved. In July, 103 House Democrats voted for Massie's amendment, 98 voted against and 10 voted present, according to the GovTrack tally of the official record. It failed 104 to 314. In September, 46 of 47 Senate Democratic caucus members backed a resolution seeking a report on settler violence in the West Bank, Reuters reported. Our companion report on the three Democratic camps on Israel looks at those divisions in detail.

What remains unclear#

Several open questions will shape the next two months:

• The date. Trump said aid ends "by the end of this year." The MOU runs to September 2028. Israeli officials say no final decision has been made.
• The scope. It is unclear whether the change covers only FMF grants or also the $500 million in joint missile defense, which runs through the Pentagon budget.
• The vehicle. No bill, rescission request or written agreement has been published. A president cannot cancel appropriated funds on his own, and any new framework would need money from Congress.
• Signed contracts. Israel has multi-year purchase deals that assume aid. Analysts at JISS say their status is not yet clear.
• Who negotiates for Israel. Netanyahu leads a caretaker government. President Herzog on Sunday gave Gadi Eisenkot the first chance to form a new one. Our report on the mandate covers that race.

Jonathan Schanzer of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, which advocates a strong U.S.-Israel alliance, summed up the timing for Reuters. "Nothing is going to change in the United States until January when Congress takes their seats," he said, "and by then, there may be a new Israeli government that would also have an impact on this."

About this report#

This report draws on reporting and analysis from Israel Defense, the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security, Ynet, The Times of Israel, the BBC, The Guardian, Reuters and GovTrack's copy of the House vote record. Social media posts by members of Congress are quoted as compiled in the Foundation for Middle East Peace's November 6 round-up; FMEP is an advocacy group that supports Palestinian rights and a negotiated end to the conflict. Israel Defense's description of the fiscal 2027 bills reflects drafts that may change. Times are Eastern.

Differing perspectives

How should U.S. military aid to Israel change now that Trump says it will end and Democrats will control Congress?

Each position is summarized as its supporters make it, with equal weight and in alphabetical order. A summary is not an endorsement; the evidence for each is weighed in the story above.

• Condition aid on U.S. and international law

  Who holds it: Sen. Chris Van Hollen and Democrats seeking human rights conditions

  Van Hollen argues that the United States should apply its own laws, international law and its policies the same way to every country that receives American weapons. He says there should not be an Israel exception. Supporters of this approach want aid and arms sales tied to legal and human rights standards and closer scrutiny of West Bank violence, rather than either a blank check or a full cutoff.

  In their words: Reuters, quoting Sen. Van Hollen ↗

• End aid and stop arms sales

  Who holds it: Rep. Ro Khanna, Rep. Delia Ramirez and other progressive Democrats

  These Democrats argue the new majority should change course rather than renew the agreement. After the election, Khanna posted that Democrats must deliver zero aid to Israel and stop military sales, and wrote that progressives had won the debate. Ramirez is pressing her Block the Bombs Act, which would bar transfers of certain offensive munitions. Both treat Trump's announcement as a starting point for broader limits on weapons.

  In their words: Foundation for Middle East Peace, compiling the lawmakers' posts ↗

• Phase it out in an orderly way

  Who holds it: Israeli security analysts at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security

  These analysts argue the shift from aid to partnership is a direction Israel chose, but the abrupt end-2026 timeline undermines multi-year planning and opens a sudden budget gap. Pnina Shuker proposes a written U.S. clarification and a three-to-five-year framework that protects signed deals and missile defense funding. She urges a direct channel with Democratic leaders and committee chairs before they take office.

  In their words: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security ↗

• Replace aid with a reciprocal partnership

  Who holds it: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office and Israeli diplomatic officials

  Netanyahu's office argues that the move from assistance to partnership shows the strength and sophistication of the relationship and its ability to adapt. It says U.S. aid was always bipartisan, that Israel used it to defend itself and to confront enemies that threaten America and the West, and that Israel now has a strong and stable economy. Officials say a new deal would reduce aid gradually and fund joint projects.

  In their words: Ynet, quoting the Prime Minister's Office ↗

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