Ossoff projected to hold Georgia Senate seat over Collins in first big call of election night

Georgia's polls closed at 7 p.m. Eastern on Tuesday. Forty-one minutes later, CBS News projected that Sen. Jon Ossoff had won a second term$, the first major Senate call of the night. The Associated Press called the race at 7:55 p.m., and ABC News listed Ossoff as its projected winner on its Georgia results page.

The margin in the early count was wide. At 8:32 p.m., ABC's tally showed Ossoff with 1,661,077 votes, or 63%, to 974,893, or 37%, for Republican Rep. Mike Collins, with 59% of the expected vote reported, according to the ABC results page. Those figures are heavy on early and mail ballots, which Georgia counties upload first. Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger had said earlier in the day that the early vote should be uploaded by 8 p.m. and promised "quick results tonight," according to ABC's live blog. Election Day ballots had barely begun to report. Whether they narrow the gap, and by how much, is not yet known.$

Ossoff was the only Democratic senator seeking reelection this year in a state President Trump carried in 2024, as CBS News noted. Republicans had put Georgia near the top of their target list when the cycle began. By the end, the Washington Examiner reported, party strategists "had largely concluded they did not have a good chance of flipping the seat," and Fox News reported that Republican-aligned outside groups cut their Georgia spending in the final weeks.

What the count showed, and what it did not

The table below compares the partial count with the last three public polls that released full methodology, which we reviewed in our final Georgia polls story. The partial count is not a final result. It also includes a Libertarian candidate, Buckley, whose share was not broken out on the ABC page.

• Ossoff (D)
• Collins (R)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

ABC count at 8:32 p.m. (59% in)Ossoff (D): 63%Collins (R): 37%

Echelon Insights (Oct. 16-23)Ossoff (D): 55%Collins (R): 40%

AJC/UGA (Oct. 7-15)Ossoff (D): 48%Collins (R): 40%

Trafalgar (Sep. 10-12)Ossoff (D): 49%Collins (R): 43%

ABC count at 8:32 p.m. (59% in)Echelon Insights (Oct. 16-23)AJC/UGA (Oct. 7-15)Trafalgar (Sep. 10-12)

Source: ABC News results page, Echelon Insights memo, AJC, Wikipedia polling table

Show the numbers

Source	Ossoff (D)	Collins (R)
ABC count at 8:32 p.m. (59% in)	63%	37%
Echelon Insights (Oct. 16-23)	55%	40%
AJC/UGA (Oct. 7-15)	48%	40%
Trafalgar (Sep. 10-12)	49%	43%

Every public poll listed on Wikipedia's compilation since February showed Ossoff ahead, by 4 to 13 points. A RealClearPolitics average of September and October surveys put his lead at 8.2 points, the Washington Examiner reported. The early count is wider than any of those polls, which is consistent with early votes being reported first. Georgia does not register voters by party, so the early-vote totals we tracked in our Election Day turnout report cannot be split by candidate until the count is complete.

Georgia requires a runoff if no candidate wins a majority. The projections mean the networks and the AP concluded Collins could not catch up or force a runoff, though the final margin may differ from the one shown tonight.

The Senate math after Georgia

Republicans entered the night with a 53–47 majority, and Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take control, as the CBS News Senate tracker laid out. Georgia was a Democratic hold, so it changes nothing in that arithmetic. Its importance is that it removes the most likely Republican pickup from the board.

By 8:31 p.m., ABC had also projected Democrat Roy Cooper to win the open North Carolina seat of retiring Republican Thom Tillis$, which it described as a flip, along with Democrat Chris Pappas$ holding New Hampshire and Republican Ashley Moody$ holding Florida, according to the ABC live blog. Fox News reported that Democrat Mark Warner$ had been projected in Virginia before Ossoff. ABC's tally showed Democrats with a net gain of one.

That leaves Democrats needing three more net pickups, with the Republican-held toss-ups still open. ABC's live counts at 8:31 p.m. showed Democrat Sherrod Brown ahead of Sen. Jon Husted$ in Ohio with 35% reporting, and Democrat James Talarico ahead of Ken Paxton in Texas with 24% reporting, with neither race called, per the ABC live blog. Maine had almost no votes reported. Michigan, Alaska, Iowa and Kansas close later or count more slowly. Republicans can lose up to three of those contests and keep the chamber.

1. 2026-05-19Primaries. Ossoff unopposed; Collins leads a three-way Republican field with 40.5% and heads to a runoff
2. 2026-06-16Collins wins the Republican runoff over Derek Dooley, 55.5% to 44.5%, after a late Trump endorsement
3. 2026-10-08First debate, hosted by Atlanta News First at Assembly Atlanta
4. 2026-10-13Second debate, Atlanta Press Club; early voting begins
5. 2026-11-02Final rallies. Ossoff in DeKalb County; Collins tours Republican offices statewide
6. 2026-11-03Polls close 7 p.m. CBS projects Ossoff at 7:41 p.m.; AP at 7:55 p.m.

What the candidates said

The campaign was personal and often harsh. At the Oct. 8 debate, Ossoff said, "These tariffs are crushing our state, and we'll repeal those tariffs," and told viewers, "It costs more today than at any time in American history to stock your fridge, to fill up your truck, to power your home," according to the Georgia Recorder's report. He accused Collins and Trump of passing "the biggest Medicaid cut in history," and said Collins "has brought dishonor to our state through his personal bigotry."

Collins answered that the inflation Georgians feel began under Democrats: "That Bidenomics, that Green New Deal that my opponent voted for, that's where all this inflation came from." On the border, he said Ossoff "wanted to keep the borders wide open so that we had fentanyl coming across this border," and he called Ossoff "a trust fund kid who's never had a job in his life," per the same report. In his closing statement, Collins said, "We still haven't heard why Jon Ossoff votes the way he does. Those aren't your Georgia values. Those aren't even American values," according to the AJC's live coverage. On Iran, Collins said the president "had every right to go in there and make sure that Iran does not get a nuclear weapon." Ossoff replied that "Iran still has its uranium; Iran still has its drones and missiles."

The second debate, on Oct. 13, turned on the Epstein files and donors. Ossoff said Collins "wouldn't vote to release those files until Donald Trump gave him permission," and Collins said of Ossoff's donor Reid Hoffman that "the call's coming from inside the house," CBS Atlanta reported. Ossoff also said he had "zero interest in running for president" and pledged to serve a full term.

On the final day, Ossoff told a DeKalb County rally, "Let's win these races decisively," and "Let's turn the page on this dark chapter in our nation's history," FOX 5 Atlanta reported. Collins, touring Republican offices in Buckhead, Columbia County, Savannah and Macon, said, "This race is close. All the races are close. I need your help," and, "We're going to show the world that this is not a blue state, not a purple state. We are a red state."

After the call, the Ossoff campaign said in a statement that "Georgians sent him back to the Senate because they know he will always show up for them," and that "together we will continue the important work of rooting out corruption and abuses of power," according to FOX 5 Atlanta's AP report. Senate Democrats' campaign arm called Ossoff "a workhorse for the people of Georgia," Fox News reported. We found no statement from Collins, the National Republican Senatorial Committee or the Georgia Republican Party in any source we could open by 8:35 p.m. Trump, speaking on Fox News Channel earlier in the evening, said, "I think the results are going to be better than you think," and that "inflation is solved," per FOX 9's AP report.

Money: a 13-to-1 gap in receipts

Federal Election Commission filings show a wide fundraising gap. Ossoff's campaign reported total receipts of $136,610,982 for coverage dates Jan. 1, 2021, through Oct. 14, 2026, with $125,808,380 in disbursements and $15,134,336 cash on hand, according to the FEC candidate page, retrieved Nov. 3, 2026. For the two-year period beginning Jan. 1, 2025, receipts were $115,904,486.

Collins's two authorized Senate committees together reported $10,679,277 in receipts, $10,178,766 in disbursements and $1,103,682 cash on hand for Jan. 1, 2025, through Oct. 14, 2026, according to the FEC candidate page for his Senate run, also retrieved Nov. 3. Receipts are not the same as money spent in Georgia; both figures exclude outside groups, which report separately.

The Washington Examiner reported that Senate Majority PAC, the main Democratic super PAC, pulled its Georgia advertising in the final weeks, which the paper read as confidence in the result. The FEC's processed independent-expenditure data for the cycle, as compiled in 567 Politics' funding records retrieved Nov. 1, showed the Republican-aligned SLF PAC as the largest reported outside spender against Ossoff, at $313,600, with other groups reporting smaller amounts for and against him; the records do not capture spending filed after that date.

Who voted and why: what we know

No Georgia-specific exit poll from the CBS News/National Election Pool survey, the Fox News Voter Poll conducted by SSRS, or AP VoteCast could be opened in time for this story. Nationally, CBS News' early exit poll put Trump's approval at 38% and found that more voters held negative views of the economy than two years ago, according to its exit poll page. Our summary of the early national exit polls has the details and methodology.

Two pre-election surveys offer Georgia-specific context. State Navigate, a nonpartisan group that studies state legislatures, surveyed 679 likely voters by text-to-web from Oct. 23 to 27 with a margin of error of 3.8 points. It found Trump's approval among Georgia likely voters at 42%, with 57% disapproving, according to its release. Its founder, Chaz Nuttycombe, wrote that "Democrats' irregular voters are showing up; Republicans' aren't, at least not yet," while cautioning that Republican irregular voters might still turn out on Election Day.

Echelon Insights, a Republican firm, surveyed 508 Georgia likely voters Oct. 16 to 23 as part of a six-state project for the trade group NetChoice. Its memo said "inflation and cost of living is a top priority for 55%" of likely voters and gave Ossoff a 15-point lead. Those are opinion surveys taken before voting ended, not measures of who actually voted.

Turnout was large. More than 2.8 million Georgians voted early or by mail before Tuesday, and the state passed 3.1 million ballots by midmorning on Election Day, as we reported in our turnout coverage. Raffensperger said more than 775,000 ballots had been cast on Election Day itself, according to a headline on FOX 5 Atlanta's 5 p.m. results page. National early-vote totals and poll-closing times are in our Election Day guide.

The governor's race is still open

The other statewide contest at the top of the ballot, between Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms and Republican Rick Jackson, had not been called in any source we could open by 8:35 p.m. ABC's Georgia page listed the matchup without a count. The final public polls had the race inside the margin of error, with Echelon showing Bottoms 49% to 48% and the AJC/UGA poll showing Jackson 46% to 45%. Results will appear on our Georgia governor race page and the Senate race page as they come in.

The gap between the two races was the main feature of Georgia's final polling. A sizable group of voters appeared ready to back Ossoff while remaining open to a Republican for governor. Whether that pattern holds in the final count is one of the night's open questions.

How the two candidates got here

Ossoff, 39, first won the seat in a January 2021 runoff against Republican David Perdue, one of two Georgia runoffs that gave Democrats Senate control that year. He is the state's first Jewish senator, WCTV noted. He faced no primary opponent this year.

Collins, 59, co-founded a trucking company and has represented Georgia's 10th District since 2023, according to CBS News. He wrote the Laken Riley Act, which Ossoff voted for while criticizing the administration's enforcement tactics, Fox News reported. National Republicans first tried to recruit Gov. Brian Kemp, who declined and endorsed Derek Dooley. Collins won the May 19 primary with 40.5% and the June 16 runoff with 55.5% after Trump endorsed him, according to results compiled on Wikipedia. During the general election he faced questions about a House ethics inquiry, which he has described as a complaint without merit, and about social media posts by a relative, per Fox News. Ossoff faced questions about donations from Reid Hoffman, the venture capitalist named in the Epstein files.

What is still unknown

The final margin. The 63–37 split reflects 59% of the expected vote and is weighted toward early ballots. The Election Day share, which Raffensperger put at more than 775,000 ballots as of late afternoon, had barely begun to report.

Any statement from Collins. None had been published in the sources we could reach.

How Georgians voted by group. Without a state exit poll, claims about which voters moved are not yet supported.

The governor's race, and the other statewide offices, which will show whether the Senate margin carried down the ballot.

How we reported this

We opened the CBS, ABC, FOX 5 Atlanta, FOX 9, Fox News, Washington Examiner, WCTV and Breitbart election-night reports, the Georgia Recorder and AJC debate coverage, the FEC candidate pages for both campaigns and the State Navigate and Echelon Insights poll releases. NBC, CNN, the Washington Post, NPR, Axios, the AJC results pages, the Georgia Secretary of State's results application and Decision Desk HQ's race pages could not be opened or showed no returns. We could not retrieve or verify any social media post, so none is quoted.

Differing perspectives

Why did Ossoff hold a Senate seat in a state Trump carried in 2024?

Each position is summarized as its supporters make it, with equal weight and in alphabetical order. A summary is not an endorsement; the evidence for each is weighed in the story above.

• Cost of living drove ticket-splitting voters

  Who holds it: Echelon Insights, a Republican polling firm, in its Oct. 26 memo for the trade group NetChoice

  Echelon's memo for NetChoice, based on 3,644 likely voters nationwide including 508 in Georgia surveyed Oct. 16-23, reported that inflation and cost of living is a top priority for 55% of likely voters and the leading issue in each oversampled state. In Georgia it found Ossoff leading the Senate race by 15 points, 55% to 40%, while the governor's race was within the margin of error. On this reading, voters who ranked prices first split their tickets, favoring the incumbent senator who campaigned against tariffs and the Iran war while remaining open to a Republican for governor.

  In their words: Echelon Insights for NetChoice ↗

• Early-vote patterns and Trump's standing shaped the margin

  Who holds it: State Navigate, a nonpartisan group that polled 679 Georgia likely voters Oct. 23-27

  State Navigate's founder, Chaz Nuttycombe, wrote before Election Day that Democrats' irregular voters were showing up and Republicans' were not, at least not yet. His survey found that Democrats were getting more of their less reliable voters to the polls early, while Republicans' irregular voters might still turn out on Election Day, and that Rick Jackson's path in the governor's race ran through them. The same poll put President Trump's job approval among Georgia likely voters at 42%, with 57% disapproving. On this reading, early-vote composition and the president's standing explain much of the Senate margin.

  In their words: State Navigate ↗

• Turnout and a money gap decided it, not a verdict on Republican policy

  Who holds it: Rep. Mike Collins and his campaign

  Collins argued throughout the campaign that the inflation Georgians feel came from the policies Ossoff voted for, which he called Bidenomics and the Green New Deal, and that Ossoff wanted to keep the borders open. He said no one has held Jon Ossoff accountable for any of his votes or the reasons for them. In his closing days he told supporters the race was close, that a midterm is all about turnout, and that Georgia would show the world it is a red state, not a blue or purple one. On this reading, the outcome reflects which side turned out its voters and the Ossoff campaign's far larger budget rather than a judgment on Republican policy.

  In their words: Rough Draft Atlanta (Georgia Recorder debate report quoting Collins) ↗

• Voters rewarded his record on costs, services and accountability

  Who holds it: Jon Ossoff's campaign and Senate Democrats' campaign arm (DSCC)

  The Ossoff campaign says Georgians sent him back to the Senate because they know he will always show up for them, and that the next term will continue the work of rooting out corruption and abuses of power. The campaign points to its focus on lowering costs, constituent services and standing up for children. Senate Democrats' campaign arm describes him as a workhorse for the people of Georgia who spent six years in the Senate delivering for the state. On this reading, the result reflects a judgment on his record and his willingness to criticize the president sharply, rather than the national environment alone.

  In their words: FOX 5 Atlanta (Associated Press report carrying the Ossoff campaign statement) ↗