Takaichi's approval reads 42% to 65% in four Japanese polls as the Diet fight over her tax cut nears

Four Japanese news organizations have published readings of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's cabinet approval rating in the past three weeks. They range from 42.4% to 64.9%. The spread owes little to the calendar: JNN's previous poll, taken October 3 and 4, found 63.0%, days before Jiji's 42.4%.

The latest reading is the one that makes headlines. The JNN network, which includes TBS, reported on Monday that 64.9% of respondents said they could support the cabinet, up 1.9 points from its previous poll, and 32.5% said they could not, down 1.4 points. Jiji Press, which interviews people face to face rather than calling them, put the cabinet at 42.4% in a poll fielded October 9 to 12, the fifth monthly decline in a row and its lowest reading to date for this cabinet.

The readings arrive as the Diet takes up her signature tax bill. Her government wants the House of Representatives to pass a bill this week that cuts the consumption tax on food to 1% for two years. The opposition says she must attend a committee session first. This report lays out what the polls measured, why they differ, and where the Diet dispute stands. Quotations from Japanese-language sources are 567politics translations.

What the four polls found

Sources: JNN via TBS NEWS DIG, TV Tokyo, NHK, Jiji.

JNN, Oct. 31–Nov. 1

64.9%

Nikkei/TV Tokyo, Oct. 23–25

62%

NHK, reported Oct. 13

51%

Jiji, Oct. 9–12

42.4%

Source: JNN, TV Tokyo and Nikkei, NHK, Jiji

Show the numbers

Poll	Support
JNN, Oct. 31–Nov. 1	64.9%
Nikkei/TV Tokyo, Oct. 23–25	62%
NHK, reported Oct. 13	51%
Jiji, Oct. 9–12	42.4%

Every outlet shows the cabinet with more supporters than opponents. They disagree on how large the lead is. The gap between support and opposition runs from 12.7 points in Jiji's poll to 32.4 points in JNN's, using the published figures.

The JNN poll in detail

JNN fielded its poll on Saturday, October 31, and Sunday, November 1. It reached 1,024 adults aged 18 and over, 38.5% of the 2,662 people it called. Of those, 438 answered on landlines and 586 on mobile phones. Interviewers, not recorded voices, asked the questions, according to JNN's description of its method.

Among supporters, the most common reason, at 39%, was that the cabinet "seems better than other cabinets." Among those who could not support it, the most common reason, at 31%, was that they "cannot expect anything from its policies."

JNN also asked how long Takaichi should stay. About 46% said as long as possible, 36% said until her term as LDP president ends next September, and 14% said she should leave soon. JNN said the cabinet kept the highest approval among those since Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi when each is compared at the start and one year in. We did not see the underlying series, so that comparison is JNN's own.

On the food tax bill, 54% of JNN respondents favored it and 35% opposed it, unchanged from the earlier poll. A separate question found 62% in favor of the plan, agreed last week by the LDP, Ishin and the Democratic Party for the People, to cut 31 proportional-representation seats in the lower house. Opposition was 19%.

JNN also asked about the wave of cyberattacks and data leaks at companies and local governments. In total, 87% said they were very or somewhat worried. On the government's response, 39% approved and 58% disapproved.

The Nikkei and TV Tokyo poll

The TV Tokyo and Nikkei poll interviewed 945 adults on landline and mobile phones between October 23 and 25. Approval was unchanged from September at 62%; disapproval fell 2 points to 31%.

Of those who approved, 32% cited a trustworthy personality, 26% leadership and 21% stability. Among those who did not, 39% said the cabinet is LDP-centered, 36% said its policies are bad and 34% said the government and party are run badly.

The poll asked which anti-inflation measure respondents thought would work. A cut in the food consumption tax drew 54%, and cash payments, which the opposition has proposed as an alternative, drew 33%. Price measures were the top priority for 48%. This is a question about perceived effectiveness, not support for the bill, so it should not be read against JNN's 54% in favor, which is a different question that happens to give the same number.

It also asked about China. The poll noted that relations have worsened since Takaichi's remarks last November about a possible Taiwan contingency. In response, 55% said Japan should create more opportunities for talks with China and 39% said the current approach is fine.

The Jiji poll

Jiji's October poll was a face-to-face survey of 2,000 adults aged 18 and over, with a 58.4% valid response rate. That works out to roughly 1,170 completed interviews, our arithmetic. Jiji linked the drop in part to the prime minister's decision to keep Agriculture Minister Kazuo Yana in office for about two weeks after reports about him. Yana's remarks about cutting a local road budget and an alleged election-law violation drew coverage from September 30. Jiji called the October 14 outcome an effective dismissal; TV Tokyo said he resigned.

Asked about the decision to keep him on, 49.6% called it a problem and another 28.4% said it was somewhat a problem. Only 13.2% defended it. Jiji also found 28.0% approved of last month's cabinet reshuffle and 50.6% did not, and 65.9% saw a problem with appointing Yana and Education Minister Yoshihiro Seki, both linked to the LDP factional slush-fund scandal.

The Nikkei and TV Tokyo poll, taken later, found the public split on the same episode. It reported that 48% saw a problem in the way Takaichi handled the matter and 43% did not.

Why the polls differ

Several factors could explain the gap. The published pages let us rule out one of them.

Timing does not explain it. JNN's previous poll, reported by TBS in early October, put approval at 63.0%, a 0.5-point rise from September's 62.5%. Jiji, interviewing days later, found 42.4%. The two series have been roughly 20 points apart over the same weeks.

Mode and wording are the likelier factors. JNN dials random numbers and uses live interviewers. Jiji uses face-to-face interviews and reports a higher response rate. Both aim for a cross-section of adults, but the people who agree to take part may differ. The outlets also phrase the question differently. JNN asks whether respondents "can support" the cabinet. We have not compared the full wording of each question, and none of the outlets says how much of the gap its method accounts for.

Party identification shifts with the method too. The share of respondents saying they back no party was 59.7% in Jiji's poll, 42.7% in JNN's and 28% in the Nikkei and TV Tokyo survey, which asks about "supported or favored" parties. The LDP's share rises as the no-party share falls.

• LDP
• No party

0%

20%

40%

60%

Jiji, Oct. 9–12LDP: 22.1%No party: 59.7%

JNN, Oct. 31–Nov. 1LDP: 32.9%No party: 42.7%

Nikkei/TV Tokyo, Oct. 23–25LDP: 39%No party: 28%

Jiji, Oct. 9–12JNN, Oct. 31–Nov. 1Nikkei/TV Tokyo, Oct. 23–25

Source: Jiji, JNN, TV Tokyo and Nikkei

Show the numbers

Poll	LDP	No party
Jiji, Oct. 9–12	22.1%	59.7%
JNN, Oct. 31–Nov. 1	32.9%	42.7%
Nikkei/TV Tokyo, Oct. 23–25	39%	28%

Jiji, with the lowest approval, also has the lowest LDP share and the highest no-party share. The pattern is not perfectly ordered: JNN's approval is higher than Nikkei and TV Tokyo's even though its LDP share is lower. Still, a poll whose respondents are more willing to name the governing party may also find them more willing to approve of its cabinet. That would be consistent with differences in who ends up in each sample or how they are asked, but the published pages do not show it.

Sampling error is smaller than the gap. With a simple random sample of 1,024, a 95% margin of error on a single percentage is about 3.1 points. For 945 respondents it is about 3.2 points, and for roughly 1,170 it is about 2.9. These are 567politics' calculations, which ignore weighting and non-response. The 22.5-point difference between JNN's latest reading and Jiji's is far outside them.

Readers comparing outlets should compare each outlet with its own earlier readings. Within Jiji's series, approval has fallen for five months. Within JNN's, approval went from 65.9% in July to 59.2% in August, then 62.5% in September, 63.0% in October and 64.9% now, based on TBS's August report and the later releases cited above. The NHK trend is gentler, a 2-point drop to 51% in October.

The Diet fight the numbers feed

Takaichi's government has submitted a bill that would cut the consumption tax on food to 1% from 8% for two years, starting next April, according to JNN and TV Tokyo, and pay a benefit equivalent to 1% of consumption tax to low- and middle-income workers, the Japan Times reported. The LDP hopes to hold committee and plenary votes in the lower house on Friday, November 6, so the bill can be enacted before the session ends on December 12. Our earlier report on the bill's contents and costs covers the policy debate.

The dispute now is over procedure. According to a Daily Sports report dated Tuesday, Takaichi has not attended any committee session on the bill. The lower-house Financial Affairs Committee will finish a seven-hour session on Wednesday, by which time its deliberations, including joint sessions and witness testimony, will exceed 30 hours. An LDP source told the paper that the party is prepared to schedule a vote on the chair's authority if needed. The Upper House, where the ruling parties lack a majority, will set up a special committee on Wednesday, and the plan is to begin debate there the following week.

The opposition's stance is that no vote should proceed without her. The Diet affairs chiefs of the six opposition parties in the lower house agreed on October 30 to demand that she appear at the November 6 committee meeting, and said they would not take part in that session otherwise. LDP Diet affairs chief Hideki Murai said only that the party took the request "seriously." He and Yuichi Goto, the opposition side's Diet affairs chief, were to meet again on Wednesday.

Positions

The perspectives section below sets out three positions on the procedural question. None of the statements we reviewed cites the polls. Supporters of the bill could point to JNN's 54% in favor, and critics to the 48%-to-43% split in the Nikkei and TV Tokyo poll on her handling of the Yana case, but the positions below rest on what each side said in the Diet dispute itself. The opposition is not united on its reasons: some demand her attendance, and others want details on the benefit first. Ishin, the LDP's partner, called for concessions on inflation measures.

What to watch

The first date is Wednesday, November 4, when the Murai and Goto talks resume and the Upper House sets up its special committee. If the prime minister agrees to appear, the schedule for Friday could hold. If she does not, the question becomes whether the LDP and its partner use the chair's authority to schedule a vote over the opposition's objection, as an LDP source told Daily Sports the party is prepared to do.

After the lower house, the bill goes to an Upper House the ruling parties do not control, with about five weeks left in the session. New polls will show whether the procedural fight moves opinion. Jiji's November poll, when it appears, can be compared directly with its 42.4%.

Our report on the Constitution's 80th anniversary covers another item on the same legislative calendar, and our defense spending report covers a third. See also Takaichi's profile and our Japan guide.

How we reported this

We read the JNN, TV Tokyo (for the Nikkei poll), NHK and Jiji releases directly, and the Japan Times and Daily Sports reports on the Diet. NHK's page we reviewed gave the result but not field dates, sample or method, so we list it without them. JNN's October and August figures come from TBS's releases for those months. Poll results are not forecasts, and we did not weight or adjust any of them. Our methodology explains how we source and attribute claims.

Differing perspectives

Should the lower house vote on the food tax cut bill before the prime minister appears in committee?

Each position is summarized as its supporters make it, with equal weight and in alphabetical order. A summary is not an endorsement; the evidence for each is weighed in the story above.

• Keep the schedule and continue deliberations

  Who holds it: The Liberal Democratic Party, including Diet affairs chief Hideki Murai

  LDP officials aim to pass the bill through the lower house by November 6. Committee deliberations will exceed 30 hours including joint sessions and witness testimony, and the party expects difficult going in the Upper House, where the ruling parties lack a majority. Murai said the party takes the attendance request seriously and promised a deeper conversation with the opposition on November 4. A party source said it is prepared to schedule a vote on the chair's authority.

  In their words: Daily Sports ↗

• Require her committee appearance first

  Who holds it: The Diet affairs chiefs of six lower-house opposition parties, including the Democratic Reform Party's Yuichi Goto

  Opposition Diet affairs chiefs say the consumption tax cut is the prime minister's own long-held goal, so she should answer questions on it in person. On October 30 they agreed to ask her to attend the Financial Affairs Committee on November 6. Goto said two hours of her time would be all the opposition requests. They say they cannot take part in the November 6 deliberations unless she attends.

  In their words: TBS NEWS DIG (JNN) ↗

• Settle the benefit's details before any vote

  Who holds it: Komeito's Yasuhiro Nakagawa and the Democratic Party for the People's Motohisa Furukawa

  Nakagawa said it is unprecedented for a bill creating a new system to lack specific figures, and that a vote cannot be held until the details are clarified. He also called the temporary cut very problematic for agriculture, restaurants and households once the rate returns to 8%. Furukawa said nothing specific is stipulated in the legislation and that he wants to put questions in the Diet, with the prime minister attending the committee.

  In their words: The Japan Times (Jiji) ↗