Strike or deal? Trump meets Qatar's mediator as Israel waits on Iran after the midterms

President Donald Trump meets Qatar's prime minister at the White House on Monday, November 9, with a decision on the Iran war hanging over the meeting. Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, the main go-between with Tehran, wants Trump to give diplomacy more time, Axios reported, citing sources. Over the weekend, the U.S. and Israeli militaries prepared for a possible renewed strike, but no order came, The Jerusalem Post reported.

The midterms sit in the middle of all this. Trump says the election cost him a deal. Iran's foreign minister says the election was a message to the White House. Israel, which launched the war alongside the United States on February 28, is watching a U.S. president whose party just lost Congress partly over that war. This report covers what is on the table, what each side has said since November 3, and what Israel's leaders are signaling.

For background, see our reports on Qatar's earlier mediation and the Vance letter, Iran's two-day Hormuz offer in Doha and how the war figured in the Republican losses.

The short answer: talks stalled by the election, strikes held back#

Three facts frame Monday's meeting.

First, the indirect talks slowed around the vote. Axios reported that "the midterm elections have slowed down the indirect negotiations." Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Sunday that mediators had been inactive for several days after the elections, Iran International reported.

Second, Trump has kept force on the table but says he does not want to use it. "I'm not looking to. I don't think there's any reason to," he told CBS's 60 Minutes when asked whether he would escalate now that the midterms are over, according to the CBS transcript.

Third, Trump has given his team a short window. Two diplomatic sources told The Jerusalem Post that he gave Vice President JD Vance and other senior officials "a few days" to reach an agreement.$

What is on the table#

The draft under discussion is a two-day sequence of confidence-building steps. Qatar is mediating along with Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Turkey, according to Axios. Regional sources described the steps to Axios as follows.

1. 1Day 1, U.S. stepLift the naval blockade and release some frozen Iranian funds
2. 2Day 1, Iran stepFormally invite IAEA inspectors to the bombed nuclear sites, based on a Cairo agreement from a year ago
3. 3Day 2Reopen the Strait of Hormuz
4. 4After thatResume nuclear talks focused on Iran's highly enriched uranium stockpile

Source: Axios, Nov. 9, 2026

The two sides still disagree on order and price. A senior Iranian official told Reuters that Tehran had sent a nuclear proposal through Doha but that further talks depend on Washington meeting Iranian demands, including sanctions relief, access to frozen assets and war reparations, Iran International reported. The United States insists that nuclear issues come first.

Araghchi set out Iran's position on X on Sunday. "American voters have made their choice. Time for the White House to make its own," he wrote, as quoted by Axios. "Our 2-day proposal stands: meet the requirements, including end to war on all fronts, and you will see results. Or choose war, and see our alert and battle-hardened Warriors rain down hell."

Secretary of State Marco Rubio was skeptical. "I wouldn't say we're on the verge of a breakthrough," he said Sunday before leaving for a G7 foreign ministers' meeting in Paris, according to Axios. "Right now it hasn't been very productive, because the Iranian demands are simply not just unacceptable but, in some cases, outrageous and ridiculous and really not realistic."

How each side is reading the midterms#

Each side has drawn its own lesson from the U.S. vote, and the claims cannot all be tested.

Trump says the election cost him a deal. "We would've had a deal, except for this election," he said in the 60 Minutes interview, as quoted by Iran International. "If we didn't have this election, we might've even had, or within the next few days, we would've had a deal." The published CBS transcript reviewed for this report did not include that passage, so the quote rests on Iran International's account of the broadcast. No public document shows how close the sides were before November 3.

Trump also says the war hurt his party. He told CBS that voters "didn't like the war. They didn't like the fact that gasoline went up," and that "there's a great dislike, incredibly, for Israel." Asked whether he would make the decision to go to war again, he said: "my answer is an emphatic yes because you can't let Iran have a nuclear weapon." He added, "Is it a good decision for today and tomorrow? Maybe not."

Iran says the vote was a rebuke. Araghchi's "American voters have made their choice" post frames the result as pressure on Trump.

The data are mixed. Exit surveys showed the war was unpopular, but most voters ranked prices and corruption ahead of it as a deciding issue. Our analysis of the exit polls sets out those numbers. Neither Trump's nor Araghchi's reading can be confirmed from the surveys alone.

Israel's posture: ready to strike, waiting on Trump#

Israel's government has signaled that it sees the war as unfinished. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met top security officials on Friday afternoon, two sources told The Jerusalem Post. The paper said Israel was prepared for the possibility that Trump would order a strike.

Defense Minister Israel Katz was explicit on Sunday. "The mission against Iran has not been completed," he said at a memorial ceremony, Ynet reported. "Iran is trying to renew its efforts to obtain nuclear weapons, alongside other serious efforts that place the State of Israel in real danger. We cannot accept these threats."

President Isaac Herzog made a similar point when he handed the mandate to form a government to opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot. "Iran is not waiting even a moment in its plots and threats," Herzog said, according to Ynet. Our report on the mandate covers how Israel's parties are reading the U.S. vote.

Israeli analysts see the midterms raising the price of independent action. Yaakov Katz, an Israeli author on defense, told the BBC he expects tougher U.S. demands on Israel, including "a requirement not to undermine an agreement with Iran." He also stressed dependence, saying the last three years had shown how much Israel relies on American missile defense systems.

Eran Lerman of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security warned against reading the U.S. result as an "Iranian victory." He said the "dangerous interpretation" being given to the election "only sharpens the need, certainly in the two months until the Congress is sworn in, to act forcefully to dismantle this perception."

The military picture around the talks#

Military pressure has continued during the diplomacy. Trump told CNN there was a "very low probability" he would return to war if talks progressed. "It depends on whether or not they sign a very strong agreement," he said, according to The Jerusalem Post. "I would if necessary, but we hit them really hard." He also said the United States "could destroy 38 Iranian bridges in one hour," though he added, "I don't like ripping down bridges."

The Jerusalem Post reported that the aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt and its strike group left Singapore for the Central Command region, and that the amphibious assault ship USS Makin Island left Japan for the Middle East. Trump said the U.S. naval blockade, which he called "the largest in history," and a new "Iron Gate" task force mean almost nothing enters or leaves Iran.

Incidents in and near the Strait of Hormuz continued over the weekend. Iranian media reported explosions on Qeshm Island and in Bandar Abbas on Sunday, Iran International reported. The Revolutionary Guard-affiliated Tasnim agency said a U.S. projectile hit Qeshm; that claim could not be independently verified. The U.S. military said it disabled a commercial vessel, the M/V Huda, that tried to breach the blockade on Saturday. Our earlier report covered the November 2 U.S. strike on Qeshm.

1. Nov. 2U.S. strikes a missile launcher on Qeshm Island, calling it self-defense
2. Nov. 3U.S. midterms; Democrats win both chambers
3. Nov. 6Netanyahu meets security chiefs; Trump records a 60 Minutes interview saying he is not looking to escalate
4. Nov. 8Araghchi says Iran's two-day offer stands; Rubio sees no breakthrough
5. Nov. 9Trump and Vance meet Qatar's prime minister at the White House

Source: Axios, The Jerusalem Post, Iran International

What a Democratic Congress means for the war#

The new Congress cannot sit until January 3. When it does, its leverage is mostly over money and war powers. Analysts quoted by Jewish Insider said the incoming majorities "could push to link arms sales to Israeli conduct and move quickly on war powers to end the conflict," according to the Foundation for Middle East Peace's November 6 round-up. Our report on efforts to cut off war funding lists the bills already filed.

Any war powers resolution would still face a veto, and Reuters reported that Democrats are unlikely to muster two-thirds to override. That leaves the next eight weeks largely in Trump's hands. It also leaves the outcome dependent on whether Qatar and the other mediators can bridge the sequencing gap between Washington and Tehran. Until January, Democrats' main tools are public pressure and hearings they cannot yet convene.

What to watch Monday and after#

• The Qatar meetings. Al Thani is expected to see Vance first, then Trump, according to Axios. Whether the White House answers Iran's two-day proposal, and on what terms, is the key question.
• The sequence fight. Washington wants nuclear issues first. Tehran wants sanctions relief, frozen funds and an end to fighting "on all fronts" first.
• Israel's role. Israel has said its mission is incomplete. Whether a U.S.-Iran deal would bind Israeli operations, and whether Israel would accept that, is unresolved.
• Israel's government. A caretaker Netanyahu government is handling the file while Eisenkot tries to form a new one.

About this report#

This report draws on Axios, The Jerusalem Post, Iran International, Ynet, the BBC, Reuters, the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security and the CBS transcript of Trump's 60 Minutes interview. Iran International is a Persian-language broadcaster based outside Iran that is critical of the Iranian government. Accounts of military preparations rest on unnamed sources cited by those outlets. This report was written before Monday's White House meeting. Times are Eastern.

Differing perspectives

Should the United States accept a phased deal with Iran now, or keep the option of renewed strikes in play?

Each position is summarized as its supporters make it, with equal weight and in alphabetical order. A summary is not an endorsement; the evidence for each is weighed in the story above.

• Complete the mission against Iran

  Who holds it: Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz and Israel's caretaker government

  Katz argues that the mission against Iran has not been completed and that Iran is trying to renew its efforts to obtain nuclear weapons, alongside other serious efforts that place Israel in real danger. He says Israel cannot accept these threats. President Herzog adds that Iran is not waiting even a moment in its plots and threats, and both leaders call for national unity.

  In their words: Ynet, quoting Katz and Herzog ↗

• Give diplomacy more time

  Who holds it: Qatar's Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani and regional mediators

  Qatar's prime minister, the main go-between with Tehran, wants Trump to give diplomacy more time, according to sources cited by Axios. Qatar is mediating with Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Turkey on a two-day sequence: the U.S. would lift the blockade and release some frozen funds while Iran invites nuclear inspectors, then Iran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and nuclear talks would resume.

  In their words: Axios ↗

• Insist on a strong deal, with force in reserve

  Who holds it: President Donald Trump

  Trump argues there is a very low probability of returning to war if talks progress, and that it depends on whether Iran signs a very strong agreement. He says he would act if necessary and that the United States hit Iran really hard. He also says U.S. forces could destroy 38 Iranian bridges in one hour, keeping military pressure in place while Qatar's mediation continues.

  In their words: The Jerusalem Post, quoting Trump's CNN interview ↗

• Meet Iran's conditions first

  Who holds it: Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and the Iranian government

  Araghchi argues that mediation stalled for several days after the U.S. midterms and that more time is needed. He says Iran's offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within two days stands if its conditions are met, including an end to hostilities on all fronts, and warns of retaliation if Washington chooses war. A senior Iranian official told Reuters further talks depend on sanctions relief, frozen assets and reparations.

  In their words: Iran International, reporting Araghchi's statements ↗

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